I've got the "big picture" . . . the macro and the micro. I've been the businessman AND the labor. I was here in 2001 and I'm here now.
If you think that 7-10 pilots leaving every month is simply the guys who want to fly widebodies or work for a legacy, you are mistaken.
Nearly every FO who has been here less than two years is looking elsewhere. The real hemmorhage hasn't even begun yet. (and the TWA and AMR guys haven't even gotten the call yet!). Gonna be some real interesting days around here.
It's not just the former Legacy guys, either. The Regional guys recognize a regional contract and regional airline management tactics, and don't want any part of it either.
Regional contract = regional turnover and attrition. Pretty simple stuff.
Management waited too long- they should have gotten a fair a year two years ago, when it was offered. To save a few million in payroll costs, they are destroying the glue that was holding this thing together, and that isn't going to come back.
Regards,
TW
UPS, FedEX, SWA, CO, etal are hiring like big dogs...it's more a function of greener pastures out there flying big jets, etc...the TA and all it entails may some effect...it's just like prior to 9-11...the majors, legacies were hiring and our applicants had less experience...did some TA cause that...no...so, yeh we have people leaving, but it is not strictly due to the TA-tho it has some influence-people wouldn't be leaving if their weren't other places with brown uniforms...and believe me, I want the best dam contract we can get, like the rest of us...you just have to not get insanely tunnel-visioned and blame it for everything (tho it does affect global warming)...it's gonna work out...and if it doesn't, you have many options available if it ain't good for you ...and I'd love to not have to teach someone who is replacing someone we just got done training...and I don't fool and rarely spin...and I'm what your second paragraph means...I'm sure it's salient tho...cheers...