Airtran calling back more pilots!! Upgrades too!

[Flying-Corporal]

turn our attention towards our 2009 negotiations as we are starting to gain some leverage as our 2009 earnings estimates continue to be revised upwards every month.

Don't forget that fuel is not the only variable in this complex game. From what the news are broadcasting the economy is just about to tank which more likely drag down the entire aviation industry along with it. I doubt anybody would be able negotiate anything then.

 

[maxblast72]

Don't forget that fuel is not the only variable in this complex game. From what the news are broadcasting the economy is just about to tank which more likely drag down the entire aviation industry along with it. I doubt anybody would be able negotiate anything then.

I agree it is a complex game. However, two favorable things happen for Airtran during slow economic times. Legacy carriers cut large amounts of domestic capacity and fuel prices trend lower. The analysts like Airtran's business model in this environment and have been increasing 2009 earnings estimates as fuel prices continue to decline. They are betting the magnitude of the fuel cost decline will trump any RASM declines for Airtran.

It appears Airtran is getting into position to capitalize on any major capacity reductions by other airlines by beefing up staffing levels heading into the spring break/summer busy travel seasons.

 

[scarlet]

Any one get the letter from AT yet?? I believe you have 30 days to respond?

 

[m80drvr]

Thank god Parker (USAirways) just reaffirmed our furlough schedule until april 09.

Congrats to the airtran guys, be thankful you don't work for usair.

 

[RiddleEagle18]

any current furloughed AT guys living or working in SRQ?? Send me a PM if you have a few minutes. Thanks.

 

[gt1900]

Congrats on the recalls if true.

A recall so soon after a furlough gives the impression that mgmt doesn't know what's going on from month-to-month.

I totally disagree. A recall this fast after furlough means that AAI managment can adjust very fast to changing market conditions. Remember, the decision to furlough came when prices were crazy. Now they have dropped and AAI is the first to start calling back and they are changing their models for 2009 as the market dictates. But you are right, managment in the last year had no idea what was happening month to month with fuel prices....

However, I'm just curious, for all you guys who jump on the SWA is god bandwagon. How much do you think their gonna lose because of their poor fuel hedging program? Tons of fuel hedged at $70+ a barrel in 2009. Sounds like SWA managment doesn't have a clue whats going on from month to month. I would just like to know how much the charge is going to be to get out of all those "wonderful" fuel hedges that SWA had that ain't so good now that oil is $40 a barrel....

 

[BLUE BAYOU]

Furloughs and recalls while still in contract negotiations going on how many years now? = Maneuvering by management?

JBLU is considering hiring again-- but only because 5 A-320s we sold this year are coming back to us since their financing fell through; this may be the same reason for AAI-- didn't they sell a few 737s? Are they coming back to them as well?

Finally, as the playing field levels out (fuel) my bet is we'll see more very cheap fares out of AAI and JBLU for 2009; I just saw some fares that were $400+ RT are now only $150+ RT.

 

[redflyer65]

SWA wasn't hedged that much for '09 at 70 dollars, so they recently bought the hedge out and are now floating at market rates, saving several million dollars. They will be looking for future hedges when the timing is right.

 

[TheCheat]

However, I'm just curious, for all you guys who jump on the SWA is god bandwagon. How much do you think their gonna lose because of their poor fuel hedging program? Tons of fuel hedged at $70+ a barrel in 2009. Sounds like SWA managment doesn't have a clue whats going on from month to month. I would just like to know how much the charge is going to be to get out of all those "wonderful" fuel hedges that SWA had that ain't so good now that oil is $40 a barrel....

Let me guess... you knew fuel was going to be back down at $40, right? You must be extremely rich right now with all that knowledge.

 

[maxblast72]

SWA wasn't hedged that much for '09 at 70 dollars, so they recently bought the hedge out and are now floating at market rates, saving several million dollars. They will be looking for future hedges when the timing is right.

Have you seen this article?

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcont...t.399369b.html

Looks like Southwest has used up quite a bit of cash unwinding the hedges they had in place over the next 5 years. Based on Southwest being about 4 times larger than Airtran, appears Southwest has about the same amount of cash on hand proportionally with Airtran.

 

[maxblast72]

Let me guess... you knew fuel was going to be back down at $40, right? You must be extremely rich right now with all that knowledge.

No, I think his point is that fuel hedging is speculation. I am not going to judge our management on how well they speculate on future oil prices. We have all seen noone has a clue what oil is going to do. All airlines have either been burned on the way up, way down, or both. Instead, I am going to judge managment on how quickly they change the business plan based on what is happening in the marketplace.

Right now it is nice to see Airtran changing the business plan quickly back to growth. They obviously have seen a large drop in fuel costs, but they must still see decent trends in future RASM or expect some serious future competitor capacity reductions for them to go back into growth mode so quickly.

 

[gt1900]

Max got my point. Everyone was saying that SWA is a god when it comes to fuel hedging. Guys defended them like SWA could do no wrong. Now, those hedges are even hurting SWA. 5 months ago those hedges looke great, but now its gonna cost them big... Oh my how 5 months changes things. This industry sucks, but I am glad to see AAI managment being able to change direction quickly as the market demands..

 

[Wesb737fo]

Well, I do see your point, however, if anyone can afford to make a mistake in trying to hedge fuel, it's those guys.
I know one guy on this board (Andy) that did predict the drop in fuel. It'll be an interesting year (I said that last year too.)

 

[JT12345]

Good decisions by management so far. When the market is volatile acting rashly would not be wise.

Some bad decisions:

• Threatening to fire furlough pilots on probation to keep instructors.

• Agreeing to a LOA for leaves of absence, keeping instructors, furloughing instead of firing probationary pilots. Then only granting a few leaves and not using zero-time lines.

• Increasing the line values over 5 hours and furloughing all 180 pilots instead of reducing the line values to guarantee in a volatile market. (stupidess decision)

• Furloughing all pilots in the warning letter instead of less than half like other airlines.

• Asking for 10% concessions after doing the above during a time there was in house problems in the union.

ALPA merging NPA is going to be voted on thanks to that last bullet.

Now they are looking at over 6 million in additional training costs to put 95 furloughed 737 FOs in the 717 plus the displacements and new upgrades, and transitions. You see the 737 may go senior now for FOs, and FOs that choose to wait for upgrade may take it because the chance of future Captain Vacancies is less. Captains displaced to FO may be in the right seat for a while eventhough they have the left seat type.

It is going to get messy. They are trying to circumvent seniority list now during the recalls to save training costs. Something is in the works.

Hopefully more good news. As for the above decisions I have not seen any heads roll in management.

 

[Secret Squirrel]

Good decisions by management so far. When the market is volatile acting rashly would not be wise.

Some bad decisions:

• Threatening to fire furlough pilots on probation to keep instructors.

• Agreeing to a LOA for leaves of absence, keeping instructors, furloughing instead of firing probationary pilots. Then only granting a few leaves and not using zero-time lines.

• Increasing the line values over 5 hours and furloughing all 180 pilots instead of reducing the line values to guarantee in a volatile market. (stupidess decision)

• Furloughing all pilots in the warning letter instead of less than half like other airlines.

• Asking for 10% concessions after doing the above during a time there was in house problems in the union.

ALPA merging NPA is going to be voted on thanks to that last bullet.

Now they are looking at over 6 million in additional training costs to put 95 furloughed 737 FOs in the 717 plus the displacements and new upgrades, and transitions. You see the 737 may go senior now for FOs, and FOs that choose to wait for upgrade may take it because the chance of future Captain Vacancies is less. Captains displaced to FO may be in the right seat for a while eventhough they have the left seat type.

It is going to get messy. They are trying to circumvent seniority list now during the recalls to save training costs. Something is in the works.

Hopefully more good news. As for the above decisions I have not seen any heads roll in management.

The word from above is that all returning furloughees are going back to the aircraft they came off. So only recurrent required to go back online. Is it legal per the contract? Who knows.