ABX furloughs

[ABXbooger]

If they are giving it away, I'll take it...the ACMI contract they have with DHL alone would guarantee myself and several generations of my family a very good living.

 

[xspud]

Why would anybody in their right mind want to purchase Astar?

Anybody wanting to take over Astar's ioperations would probably be better off to bankrupt the company, purchase only the assets (of which the Operating Certificate is one), and hand out new job apps to the departing employees. The same applies to ABX.

Buy Astar? I'm not sure you could give it away...

I agree, there's not much to buy at either company. I can't picture either being interested in buying the other just based on their assets or their respective ACMI's. The only reason I can think of that such a thing would occur is at the prompting of DHL. That doesn't mean that I expect such a thing to happen, I'm just saying that it could. DHL would have to be offering the financing and a repackaged ACMI to someone.

The acquisitions that we know ABX has looked at are operations like Pace. I'm guessing that ABX would like to pick up anything cheap that expanded the scope of our operation (charters, pax, long-haul frt) and then they could have in-house competition for the international charter work they've been pursuing. I think they've expressed interest in having a maintenance facility that they control, too.

 

[penguin22]

Is ABX buying or selling?

I think we're buying.
Check out the Investor presentation held June 5-7.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/894081/000119312507129998/dex99.htm

About the 6th slide is the "Strategy for profitable growth"

"Pursue acquistions of complementary air operators"

 

[ABXbooger]

interesting presentation. Almost makes it look like a well run company. I think they should let an investor come and work here for a while...

 

[xspud]

Hotline update tonight (Tuesday). Bid pkgs will be out Thursday.

 

[Bitter]

I hear things got fixed....any details?

 

[Whistlin' Dan]

If they are giving it away, I'll take it...the ACMI contract they have with DHL alone would guarantee myself and several generations of my family a very good living.

It's probably not as lucrative as you think. As I understand it, it's basically a "cost-plus" contract. It's inconceivable to me that a non-government entity would award such a contract without some very powerful incentives to keep those costs low. Were that not the case, the pilots of Astar would have a contract in hand that would compare favorably with FedEx or UPS. The pilots of ABX would soon follow.

I'm sure that the terms of the contract protects Astar's investment to some extent. But the real money in owning Astar is to be made by bringing pay and benefits down to the level of other ACMI carriers flying similar aircraft.

 

[AV8OR]

It's probably not as lucrative as you think. As I understand it, it's basically a "cost-plus" contract. It's inconceivable to me that a non-government entity would award such a contract without some very powerful incentives to keep those costs low. Were that not the case, the pilots of Astar would have a contract in hand that would compare favorably with FedEx or UPS. The pilots of ABX would soon follow.

I'm sure that the terms of the contract protects Astar's investment to some extent. But the real money in owning Astar is to be made by bringing pay and benefits down to the level of other ACMI carriers flying similar aircraft.

Whistlin....are you friggin kidding me? The more you talk the more I wonder what your background is. I used to think you were Brannon, but heck, Brannon knew more than you. Dude, AStar is paid for. Note paid off. 15Mill year base to JD not including bonus. I don't know what world you live in but 15 Mill in "quan" for the next 7 years would pretty much do it for me, plus whatever millitary contracts I fly.


I don't know if you post on other forums, but you shoulda stopped here while you were ahead. But I'm sure you won't....cause you have your finger on the pulse. If I'm wrong at the end of the year......I'll tip my hat to ya.

 

[Whistlin' Dan]

Whistlin....are you friggin kidding me? The more you talk the more I wonder what your background is. I used to think you were Brannon, but heck, Brannon knew more than you. Dude, AStar is paid for. Note paid off. 15Mill year base to JD not including bonus. I don't know what world you live in but 15 Mill in "quan" for the next 7 years would pretty much do it for me, plus whatever millitary contracts I fly.

I don't know if you post on other forums, but you shoulda stopped here while you were ahead. But I'm sure you won't....cause you have your finger on the pulse. If I'm wrong at the end of the year......I'll tip my hat to ya.

Why don't you cite your source for that info, so that we can all genuflect in your direction?

And while you're at it, explain to the world why the company has been jerking you around on your contract for the last 3 years, when they're going to be paid "cost-plus" for your services anyway? I'd think they'd want to get this all behind them. Or are JD and his minions just a bunch of big meanies who want to torment you guys for as long as they can?

 

[AV8OR]

"Why don't you cite your source for that info, so that we can all genuflect in your direction?"

Alright, First, if you want to search the reams of docs from the ALJ/Citizenship hearings...knock yourself out. Second, here's a couple of other folks that cite the figure......

A. http://www.cargonewsasia.com/secured/article.aspx?article=1019 next to last paragraph.
B. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL33255.pdf middle of page 14


When you're done reading, I don't really care care whether your genuflection in my direction involves a bow or even feeling to need to lay prostrate on the floor. I'm sure whatever position you find yourself in at the end of the day will result in you kissing your own a$$. What a friggin arrogant jerk.

"And while you're at it, explain to the world why the company has been jerking you around on your contract for the last 3 years, when they're going to be paid "cost-plus" for your services anyway? I'd think they'd want to get this all behind them. Or are JD and his minions just a bunch of big meanies who want to torment you guys for as long as they can?"

There's no tellin Dan. We don't know if he has some sort of side bonus built into his agreement with DHL or what that might provide extra funds if a concession is reached. It's privately held. So unless you double as JD's pool boy in MIA, and he whispers you sweet nothings when you bring him a Mai Tai about the inner workings of his relationship with DHL, I'm guessin you sure don't know.

I do know this....the hardball negotiations we've experienced are right out of the NWA CEO playbook and while it may seem like the costs of a fabulous contract could just be laid at DHL's feet, that's not how it works. And he has always blamed the tone of negotiations on DHL.

Unfortunately for you, as distance between "what used to be" and "what is" increases, the more your analysis becomes irrelevant. Why don't you just stick to predicting whether or not the pilot strike at Eastern is gonna end up shutting it down. Maybe you'll get that right.

 

[Whistlin' Dan]

Doode...

You need to chill! Lay off the coffee...pet a small furry animal...watch some cartoons on cable TV...go downtown and buy yourself a b*** j** and a glass of warm milk. But first and foremost, do yourself a favor and take a break from this and all other message boards until you can respond to the things you read here in a civilized manner. Turning a civil discussion into a personal attack is usually a pretty good sign that your argument, or at least your ability to present it in a persuasive manner, is flawed.

Speaking of "flawed"...I read both documents to which you provided references. Only one applies to this discussion, and neither addresses the issue raised in my previous post - that of guaranteeing Astar a "profit."

"...the agreement provided for more than 90% of Astar's revenues, contained payment provisions that were integral to both Astar's financing and working capital, and shifted all of Astar's risks to DHL worlwide"

I'm just dyin' to say that "the terms of the contract protects Astar's investment to some extent," but then, I'd be repeating myself, wouldn't I?

The same document mentions the "$15 million guaranteed payment to Astar," but says nothing about how that $15 million is carried on the books. A "payment" is NOT the same thing as a "profit." It would seem uncharacteristically generous of DHL to guarantee an annual return of $15 million dollars on an initial investment of just $57 million dollars.

And lastly -

"the agreement provided Astar significant incentives to expand it's business"

That's common business-speak for "If you'll lower your prices, we'll give you more business." It's what every business owner tells his vendors. And for the last 4 years, it's what The Daz has been telling you.

Now...if you care to respond to this, try doing it with the same language and tone that you would do so to my face. Good rule for the internet, and a good rule for life in general.

 

[Bitter]

"the agreement provided Astar significant incentives to expand it's business"

They have significantly expanded there business. Block hours are way higher, and they continue to replace Abx Air on routes all the time. They are hiring pilots, it will only be a matter of time for new A/C.

Only real difference I see in ACMI contracts with ABX, is the dis-incentives in the ACMI for Astar aircraft to be removed from service. DHL pays for all the lift, regardless if it is used or not. O' and the incremental mark up.....Astars is way higher, somewhere around 6 or 7%, compared to Abx's 1.25%.
DHL, likes more expensive. Cos the service is sorta the same.......right!!!

This is why Abx is cutting up 2 engine, 2 crew, cat2 aircraft and being replaced with 3 engine 3 crew Cat1 aircraft, that all cost more to operate. Granted a 72 can carry more, but weight is rarely an issue in the DHL express business, they lose more frieght and customers daily. I have not seen a station lose a 9 to 72, because of to much volume.....just is not true.

Before you get into the whole A vs C container deal....the freight does not know what kind of container it is in, the sort did not see what kind of container the freight arrived in, the C's are a joke agreed, and highly unique, but DHL's desire to rid themselves of them yesterday,(I do agree they gotta go eventually) is part of the reason they are losing a Billion USD a year. Walk before you run.....Make a profit first! Abx has removed more AC from service than Astar has total equipment.....what does this say?

Airborne was not stupid.....DHL bought a turn key operation, that needed some tweaking. They shut of the key. Heaven knows now how they will ever turn it around in the US. THe hub disintergration is years behind us, and they still are showing on a dayly basis that they do not understand the US Express business.

Heaven help us all. The wheels are surely going to come of the bus eventually, if they don't get a clue.....I would be happy to buy the first vowl!

 

[flyinboxes]

Sorry Dan, but AV8or is right. The ACMI is on my hard drive my friend. 15 million whether a plane leaves the ground or not. Also,

I have to wonder about you myself. Trust me when I tell you, your thoughts are a little off base. Do you honestly think we are negotiating with Astar?

And no I will not "post" the ACMI although it may be public info, I don't know. What I do know is that I know it well for reasons I will not post on here.
I had to respond as you are way off base. Listen or not I don't care. Have a good day.

 

[AV8OR]

OK Dan.....your right. John D is just doing this for the tax write off.

Like I said, at the end of 2007 we'll see what this useless dog is worth.

 

[abxaviator]

Not trying to Flamebait here, but what is the siginificance of the end of 2007? Previously there was a lot of talk about March being significant for a lock-out or some such, but nothing happened.

 

[rotor&wing]

there's no doubt who 'ol whistlen' dan is, even though he tries to deny it. trust me, he used the same b***s**t technique when he was working at Astar. this is what ultimately cooked his goose.

 

[Whistlin' Dan]

As one of my colleagues (one with a graduate degree in International Finance) has just informed me, there's no use continuing this discussion until the difference between "guaranteed revenue" and "guaranteed profit" are understood by all the participants.

One good thing has come out of this discourse - I'm starting to understand why the contract negotiations have been taking so long.

 

[oldawg]

There is a new members only message.

 

[HeavyjetDC8]

We are indeed blessed; not just a message but also bid packs and a letter of agreement have appeared in my in-box. The bid pack shows 98 lines for some 125 crew members in each 767 seat, the surplus I suppose to be covered by build-up lines which will probably be assigned to maximize the consecutive period spent on ANA flying to 24 days. We did reach agreement for maximum consecutive time spent in Asia to be 15 days didn't we? Not much of an agreement otherwise.

 

[flyinboxes]

As one of my colleagues (one with a graduate degree in International Finance) has just informed me, there's no use continuing this discussion until the difference between "guaranteed revenue" and "guaranteed profit" are understood by all the participants.

One good thing has come out of this discourse - I'm starting to understand why the contract negotiations have been taking so long.

Please have your international finance guru explain it to us. We are to dumb to finger it out. Our contract negotiations are taking a while because we don't understand the difference between profit and revenue. And to think I invest in the stock market.