AA-Rumors

[fxbat]

Lots of rumors floating around about re-calls. Anyone like to take a guess when AA will start calling?
http://www.usaviation.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=19974

I hope for everyone’s sake it is soon.

 

[Herk Bubba]

Yeah - I'll take a guess: Oct 2006 at ~30/mo

 

[aa73]

This fall at the earliest, next spring at the latest.

 

[AA717driver]

One of the currently employed TWA guys got a message from the LAX Chief Pilot (?, he's STL-based) saying they are done with furloughs. Nothing about recalls.

I did hear that a AMR VP may lose his job over the latest round of layoffs. These layoffs were done to impress Wall St. against the advice of the union AND, for once, Roy Everett. Roy was ordered to go ahead with the furloughs.

1200 hours of flying (per month, I believe) have been cancelled for the summer months due to the impending shortage of crews... Wouldn't want to reward the crews for "bad behavior" would we? TC

 

[pkober]

Lets only hope that there are no more furloughs.

CLAMBAKE

 

[CSY Mon]

I heard 800.


Medium reliable source.

Interesting times ahead....As always.

 

[pkober]

CSY Mon,

800 more what? Furloughs or recalls?

Peace, out

CLAMBAKE

 

[80drvr]

CSY Mon,

800 more what? Furloughs or recalls?

Peace, out

CLAMBAKE

Well, base chief pilots just finished calling F/Os on the payroll letting them know that they would not be furloughed, so I would guess that the rumor would be about 800 recalls.

I think it would take some significant new service announcements with associated aircraft additions to generate that number of recalls in the short term. At current flying levels, we're probably undermanned by a few hundred.

Of course any of the following political issues currently in play could flush the hope of recalls down the toilet:
-Age 60 legislation
-Wright Amendment
-Bankruptcy outcomes
-Pension Legislation (could be good or bad for furloughees)


-

 

[pilotyip]

What did I tell you, hiring boom June 2007

 

[Jeff Helgeson]

That's why I am sending my $ to you in stead of Kit Darby!

What did I tell you, hiring boom June 2007

Yeah, but it will most likely be mostly regional hiring.

 

[aa73]

Yeah, but it will most likely be mostly regional hiring.

lol you took the words right out of my mouth (good meatloaf song...)

i'm thinking the AA hiring boom won't be until about 2010...

73

 

[beagle pilot]

No hiring boom, but no more furloughs either. Don't know about recalls. My guess is another year.

AA is hurting for pilots now, but that is the summer flying season. The hurt will wear away in the fall. Good luck.

 

[Draginass]

Compared to the other legacy carriers, AA has been pretty tight-lipped and quiet. I suspect that Mr. Arpey is just trying to outlast somebody . . . anybody to get some capacity out of the system and give some temporary relief to lousy revenue. However, it looks to me like the courts aren't going to allow any legacy failures with carte blanche to failed managements.

AA will probably pull a profit for a couple of quarters, but it's not going to be a "recovery." I think AA is going to continue to tread water unless fuel costs go down to $40 or so. Doubt if they'll expand or contract . . . for the foreseeable future.

 

[pilotyip]

Majors will hire 10 times as many pilots in 2007 than they did 2003, that my friends is a boom

 

[WyoHerkdriver]

It is too bad that AA won't be among those majors that will be hiring in 2007. AA should have adequate pilot staffing for fall given the schedule reduction. With that in mind, I would expect (and hope) that recalls will start around January or February as AA spools up for the busy spring and summer schedule.

 

[CSY Mon]

The 800 I heard was a rumor on recalls.

Looking at various web pages and talking to guys, it does not seem to be the case.

Recalls may start in 2006.

I have 794 folks senior to me on the street.
Another 3 years at the best.

Unless fuel prices and other factors kick in.

With the stock price being so high right now, several hundred guys planning on early retirement changed their mind.

Have also heard that AA have $3.6 Billion in cash sitting around. ..(?)

 

[pkober]

Majors will hire 10 times as many pilots in 2007 than they did 2003, that my friends is a boom

AA 10 x 0 = 0

Clambake

AA furloughee March 2003

 

[Flightdawg]

Majors will hire 10 times as many pilots in 2007 than they did 2003, that my friends is a boom

Majors like UAL, DAL and NWA? Please cite your source of insight or is it just a personal guess?

Somebody already beat me to it, but it is worth repeating: 10 X 0 = 0.

 

[pilotyip]

A major?

A major is defined by having 1 $B in revenue, I would bet by 2007 ASA and ComAir will be majors. Hiring by majors and potential majors in 2003 was not 0, SWA, JB, AirTran, now all majors, were hiring, a good guess is at least 500-1000 were hired by a major in 2003. So hiring of 4000-6000 by the majors in 2007 is not an unrealistic assumption. Right now CAL, UPS, FedEx, AWA, AirTran, and JB are all hiring, probably in the 2500 to 3000 ranges this year. This is my fourth time through the cycle. In 1973 the airlines crashed just about the time was going to leave the Navy, everyone said the glory days are over. In 1983 my reserve unit was full of airline wannabes, who felt it would never come back and they had missed the boat. Some of them made Captain at AA in five years. In 1993 the famous "Will fly for food" posters" were seen at LAX, and everyone lamented It was great while it lasted". Now we are in the 2003 "It will never be the same again", my guess the cycle will repeat, but in each cycle avaition hiring redefines itself but the numbers go up.

 

[bigD]

Kit Darby, is that you?