AA-Rumors

[pilotyip]

Kit's got the numbers, he does not miss very often

 

[Flightdawg]

Read the newspapers, follow the business trends. Look at the state of the industry and follow the changes in it. Look at the state of the national economy.

The good news for AA is NO MORE FURLOUGHS. The bad news is no recalls for a year or two, maybe longer. Competing with the low cost carriers is hurting the airline. Lots of ideas out there, but very few of them make financial sense given the current industry standards.

My best advice is to tuck in for two or three tough winters. Could be longer.

 

[AAflyer]

Recalls will be earlier,

Talking to one of the chief pilots, could be this fall, and most likely Feb of next year. We are short now! The reason you are not seeing people called back is the budget, it has been set for this year and AMR is rather particular about not spending more than they have allocated for each department.

As for LCC competition, AMR is worried, but they now have one of the lowest CASMs of the legacies, AND they contribute to the pension plans. The pilots' plan is 80% funded and does not have the shortfall as some of the other carriers.

We start Shanghai next spring, rumuors have it that Delhi, and Hong Kong are also in the works. More crews and planes.

Our seniority numbers get shuffled around July 1st. Mine will be going down by almost 350 numbers, we had roughly 170+ early out so far as of May 30th. There seems to be hard evidence that 500-1000 at all bases have their paper work in and are waiting for word on pension modification by congress, the right A and B fund multiplier, or are finally just tired of putting up with this business.

None of this takes into account soaring oil prices, another SARS, more gloabl instablilty. However we lost 162 million in the first quarter, paying full price for gas. The first quarter is historically bad, and that loss is not that significant, we also raised our cash position. I think it is around 3.5+ billion.

Look for us to make a profit in the 2nd and 3rd quarter.

Hoping we recall soon, and hire again!!! Good Luck to all!!

AA

 

[Isla Mujeres]

Thanks for the good news/rumors.

 

[Swede]

They NEED to recall. Reserves are being pummeled into zombie-like states. "Fly again? Legal by 1 minute? Suuure, I'll do it."

And management can't understand why the reserve sick rate is higher than line sick rate. Reserve hour usage by definition needs a buffer. If all of the reserves are flying at 100% for the month, all it takes is some crummy weather and the system explodes, causing cancellations and the loss of more revenue than the cost of 500 more pilots would be.

But then I'm preaching to the choir.

 

[AAflyer]

Swede,

It is not just the reserves, the line holders are getting reassigned, I have had 4 sequences recently "modified" as a new sequence. Guess what? Each was higher time with more legs in it.

If we get hit this summer with weather in a couple of the hubs we are going to have cancellations all over the place. It is going to be a great summer.

AA

Still waiting for a green trip, have you ever seen one, I think it is a urban legend.

 

[80drvr]

Recalls will be earlier,

Talking to one of the chief pilots, could be this fall, and most likely Feb of next year. We are short now! The reason you are not seeing people called back is the budget, it has been set for this year and AMR is rather particular about not spending more than they have allocated for each department.

As for LCC competition, AMR is worried, but they now have one of the lowest CASMs of the legacies, AND they contribute to the pension plans. The pilots' plan is 80% funded and does not have the shortfall as some of the other carriers.

We start Shanghai next spring, rumuors have it that Delhi, and Hong Kong are also in the works. More crews and planes.

Our seniority numbers get shuffled around July 1st. Mine will be going down by almost 350 numbers, we had roughly 170+ early out so far as of May 30th. There seems to be hard evidence that 500-1000 at all bases have their paper work in and are waiting for word on pension modification by congress, the right A and B fund multiplier, or are finally just tired of putting up with this business.

None of this takes into account soaring oil prices, another SARS, more gloabl instablilty. However we lost 162 million in the first quarter, paying full price for gas. The first quarter is historically bad, and that loss is not that significant, we also raised our cash position. I think it is around 3.5+ billion.

Look for us to make a profit in the 2nd and 3rd quarter.

Hoping we recall soon, and hire again!!! Good Luck to all!!

AA

Agree with most of what you said, except 2nd & 3rd quarter profit estimates were based on oil in the high $40/bll range. In the high $50/bll range, I would expect a net loss.

 

[AAflyer]

80drvr,

My understanding was the 2nd and 3rd quarter results were based on actually fuel costs after the 1st quarter. However information is usually different from multiple sources.

We will soon see, hoping for the best!

AA

 

[singlespeed]

AAflyer,

I rode down to Dallas on AA last week. I want to say great ride and great service. Thanks a bunch

Every TWA/AA pilot I have talked with say they are not coming back. When push comes to shove how many do think will come back?

Thanks

 

[AAflyer]

Singlespeed,

It is hard to say, I know some of the TWA/AA guys that will come back. It depends what we look like when we start recalling. If we are making money, and starting to expand (Int'l) it could be more than expected. I use this as an example to UAL. My friend was recalled but deferred. He said 2 out of 3 are deferring due to where UAL is.

I am sure you know it is hard to speculate, if one of us could and do it accuratley we could make a lot of money.

Right now I would say maybe 2 out of 3 will take the call back. That is MY personal guess, it will once again depend on the state of industry and AMR when they recall.

Hope that helps, looking forward to the day we send out applications.

AA

P.S. Glad you were treated well.

 

[singlespeed]

Thanks again. BTW the loads looked up.

 

[viking737]

Spoke to a Chief Pilot yesterday, he said no recalls until Apr 2006.

 

[80drvr]

Spoke to a Chief Pilot yesterday, he said no recalls until Apr 2006.

Which Chief?

 

[IHaveAPension]

A major is defined by having 1 $B in revenue, I would bet by 2007 ASA and ComAir will be majors. Hiring by majors and potential majors in 2003 was not 0, SWA, JB, AirTran, now all majors, were hiring, a good guess is at least 500-1000 were hired by a major in 2003. So hiring of 4000-6000 by the majors in 2007 is not an unrealistic assumption. Right now CAL, UPS, FedEx, AWA, AirTran, and JB are all hiring, probably in the 2500 to 3000 ranges this year. This is my fourth time through the cycle. In 1973 the airlines crashed just about the time was going to leave the Navy, everyone said the glory days are over. In 1983 my reserve unit was full of airline wannabes, who felt it would never come back and they had missed the boat. Some of them made Captain at AA in five years. In 1993 the famous "Will fly for food" posters" were seen at LAX, and everyone lamented It was great while it lasted". Now we are in the 2003 "It will never be the same again", my guess the cycle will repeat, but in each cycle avaition hiring redefines itself but the numbers go up.

YIP once again you prove what a freaking moron you are. ASA and Comair may be majors by DOT definition, but by the defenition that really counts, pay, bennies, retirement and QOL, they are still commuter/regional airlines.

 

[Dangerkitty]

YIP once again you prove what a freaking moron you are. ASA and Comair may be majors by DOT definition, but by the defenition that really counts, pay, bennies, retirement and QOL, they are still commuter/regional airlines.

I dont know how many times I have made that same argument to my friends still at the regionals. So your company brought in the required revenue that the DOT considers them a Major. Big deal.

That DOT listing of your company as a "Major" and $4.50 will get you a Venti Latte at Starbucks.

If it makes you feel better to be considered a Major then fine. But it aint going to mean squat until you bring your Pay, Retirment, QOL, etc in line with the real Majors.

 

[WyoHerkdriver]

These guys just want to brag to people outside the industry that they work for a "major" airline. They probably think it will help them score with the women.

 

[jimpilot]

I dont know how many times I have made that same argument to my friends still at the regionals. So your company brought in the required revenue that the DOT considers them a Major. Big deal.

That DOT listing of your company as a "Major" and $4.50 will get you a Venti Latte at Starbucks.

If it makes you feel better to be considered a Major then fine. But it aint going to mean squat until you bring your Pay, Retirment, QOL, etc in line with the real Majors.

You mean the majors that all have long furlough lists. Grow up, this mine is bigger than yours thinking should have stopped when you turned 21. (Or have you yet?)

 

[B6Driver]

SW is a major. JB is also a major but some will never agree. I worked at two majors in my time and my QOL at JB is far above the other two. Pay and bennies are also similar. When JB is 20 years old with 400+ acft, things should look very different in this business. Time will tell for sure.

 

[Stifler's Mom]

Agreed...I may work for a Major based on what the DOT says, but nothing about my paycheck or QOL backs that up.

 

[Dangerkitty]

You mean the majors that all have long furlough lists. Grow up, this mine is bigger than yours thinking should have stopped when you turned 21. (Or have you yet?)

Uhhhhhhh, what? I have no clue what you are talking about. But since your own profile states that you never flew for a regional much less a major I guess you have no clue as to what I am talking about.

For your information I flew for a regional (soon to be considered a Major by the DOT) for over three years.

As has been reiterated by other pilots after my post I am only stating the obvious. You on the other hand make no sense whatsoever.

Care to expound on what the heck you are talking about?

BTW, long furlough lists have nothing to do with if you are a major versus a regional. I would much rather be furloughed from a Major carrier where I was making $100 an hour as a FO versus flying for a Regional only making $70 an hour as a Captain.

But since you have so much experience flying for the airlines I would love to hear your take on it.