AA-Rumors

[fxbat]

Lots of rumors floating around about re-calls. Anyone like to take a guess when AA will start calling?
http://www.usaviation.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=19974

I hope for everyone’s sake it is soon.

 

[Herk Bubba]

Yeah - I'll take a guess: Oct 2006 at ~30/mo

 

[aa73]

This fall at the earliest, next spring at the latest.

 

[AA717driver]

One of the currently employed TWA guys got a message from the LAX Chief Pilot (?, he's STL-based) saying they are done with furloughs. Nothing about recalls.

I did hear that a AMR VP may lose his job over the latest round of layoffs. These layoffs were done to impress Wall St. against the advice of the union AND, for once, Roy Everett. Roy was ordered to go ahead with the furloughs.

1200 hours of flying (per month, I believe) have been cancelled for the summer months due to the impending shortage of crews... Wouldn't want to reward the crews for "bad behavior" would we? TC

 

[pkober]

Lets only hope that there are no more furloughs.

CLAMBAKE

 

[CSY Mon]

I heard 800.


Medium reliable source.

Interesting times ahead....As always.

 

[pkober]

CSY Mon,

800 more what? Furloughs or recalls?

Peace, out

CLAMBAKE

 

[80drvr]

CSY Mon,

800 more what? Furloughs or recalls?

Peace, out

CLAMBAKE

Well, base chief pilots just finished calling F/Os on the payroll letting them know that they would not be furloughed, so I would guess that the rumor would be about 800 recalls.

I think it would take some significant new service announcements with associated aircraft additions to generate that number of recalls in the short term. At current flying levels, we're probably undermanned by a few hundred.

Of course any of the following political issues currently in play could flush the hope of recalls down the toilet:
-Age 60 legislation
-Wright Amendment
-Bankruptcy outcomes
-Pension Legislation (could be good or bad for furloughees)


-

 

[pilotyip]

What did I tell you, hiring boom June 2007

 

[Jeff Helgeson]

That's why I am sending my $ to you in stead of Kit Darby!

What did I tell you, hiring boom June 2007

Yeah, but it will most likely be mostly regional hiring.

 

[aa73]

Yeah, but it will most likely be mostly regional hiring.

lol you took the words right out of my mouth (good meatloaf song...)

i'm thinking the AA hiring boom won't be until about 2010...

73

 

[beagle pilot]

No hiring boom, but no more furloughs either. Don't know about recalls. My guess is another year.

AA is hurting for pilots now, but that is the summer flying season. The hurt will wear away in the fall. Good luck.

 

[Draginass]

Compared to the other legacy carriers, AA has been pretty tight-lipped and quiet. I suspect that Mr. Arpey is just trying to outlast somebody . . . anybody to get some capacity out of the system and give some temporary relief to lousy revenue. However, it looks to me like the courts aren't going to allow any legacy failures with carte blanche to failed managements.

AA will probably pull a profit for a couple of quarters, but it's not going to be a "recovery." I think AA is going to continue to tread water unless fuel costs go down to $40 or so. Doubt if they'll expand or contract . . . for the foreseeable future.

 

[pilotyip]

Majors will hire 10 times as many pilots in 2007 than they did 2003, that my friends is a boom

 

[WyoHerkdriver]

It is too bad that AA won't be among those majors that will be hiring in 2007. AA should have adequate pilot staffing for fall given the schedule reduction. With that in mind, I would expect (and hope) that recalls will start around January or February as AA spools up for the busy spring and summer schedule.

 

[CSY Mon]

The 800 I heard was a rumor on recalls.

Looking at various web pages and talking to guys, it does not seem to be the case.

Recalls may start in 2006.

I have 794 folks senior to me on the street.
Another 3 years at the best.

Unless fuel prices and other factors kick in.

With the stock price being so high right now, several hundred guys planning on early retirement changed their mind.

Have also heard that AA have $3.6 Billion in cash sitting around. ..(?)

 

[pkober]

Majors will hire 10 times as many pilots in 2007 than they did 2003, that my friends is a boom

AA 10 x 0 = 0

Clambake

AA furloughee March 2003

 

[Flightdawg]

Majors will hire 10 times as many pilots in 2007 than they did 2003, that my friends is a boom

Majors like UAL, DAL and NWA? Please cite your source of insight or is it just a personal guess?

Somebody already beat me to it, but it is worth repeating: 10 X 0 = 0.

 

[pilotyip]

A major?

A major is defined by having 1 $B in revenue, I would bet by 2007 ASA and ComAir will be majors. Hiring by majors and potential majors in 2003 was not 0, SWA, JB, AirTran, now all majors, were hiring, a good guess is at least 500-1000 were hired by a major in 2003. So hiring of 4000-6000 by the majors in 2007 is not an unrealistic assumption. Right now CAL, UPS, FedEx, AWA, AirTran, and JB are all hiring, probably in the 2500 to 3000 ranges this year. This is my fourth time through the cycle. In 1973 the airlines crashed just about the time was going to leave the Navy, everyone said the glory days are over. In 1983 my reserve unit was full of airline wannabes, who felt it would never come back and they had missed the boat. Some of them made Captain at AA in five years. In 1993 the famous "Will fly for food" posters" were seen at LAX, and everyone lamented It was great while it lasted". Now we are in the 2003 "It will never be the same again", my guess the cycle will repeat, but in each cycle avaition hiring redefines itself but the numbers go up.

 

[bigD]

Kit Darby, is that you?

 

[pilotyip]

Kit's got the numbers, he does not miss very often

 

[Flightdawg]

Read the newspapers, follow the business trends. Look at the state of the industry and follow the changes in it. Look at the state of the national economy.

The good news for AA is NO MORE FURLOUGHS. The bad news is no recalls for a year or two, maybe longer. Competing with the low cost carriers is hurting the airline. Lots of ideas out there, but very few of them make financial sense given the current industry standards.

My best advice is to tuck in for two or three tough winters. Could be longer.

 

[AAflyer]

Recalls will be earlier,

Talking to one of the chief pilots, could be this fall, and most likely Feb of next year. We are short now! The reason you are not seeing people called back is the budget, it has been set for this year and AMR is rather particular about not spending more than they have allocated for each department.

As for LCC competition, AMR is worried, but they now have one of the lowest CASMs of the legacies, AND they contribute to the pension plans. The pilots' plan is 80% funded and does not have the shortfall as some of the other carriers.

We start Shanghai next spring, rumuors have it that Delhi, and Hong Kong are also in the works. More crews and planes.

Our seniority numbers get shuffled around July 1st. Mine will be going down by almost 350 numbers, we had roughly 170+ early out so far as of May 30th. There seems to be hard evidence that 500-1000 at all bases have their paper work in and are waiting for word on pension modification by congress, the right A and B fund multiplier, or are finally just tired of putting up with this business.

None of this takes into account soaring oil prices, another SARS, more gloabl instablilty. However we lost 162 million in the first quarter, paying full price for gas. The first quarter is historically bad, and that loss is not that significant, we also raised our cash position. I think it is around 3.5+ billion.

Look for us to make a profit in the 2nd and 3rd quarter.

Hoping we recall soon, and hire again!!! Good Luck to all!!

AA

 

[Isla Mujeres]

Thanks for the good news/rumors.

 

[Swede]

They NEED to recall. Reserves are being pummeled into zombie-like states. "Fly again? Legal by 1 minute? Suuure, I'll do it."

And management can't understand why the reserve sick rate is higher than line sick rate. Reserve hour usage by definition needs a buffer. If all of the reserves are flying at 100% for the month, all it takes is some crummy weather and the system explodes, causing cancellations and the loss of more revenue than the cost of 500 more pilots would be.

But then I'm preaching to the choir.

 

[AAflyer]

Swede,

It is not just the reserves, the line holders are getting reassigned, I have had 4 sequences recently "modified" as a new sequence. Guess what? Each was higher time with more legs in it.

If we get hit this summer with weather in a couple of the hubs we are going to have cancellations all over the place. It is going to be a great summer.

AA

Still waiting for a green trip, have you ever seen one, I think it is a urban legend.

 

[80drvr]

Recalls will be earlier,

Talking to one of the chief pilots, could be this fall, and most likely Feb of next year. We are short now! The reason you are not seeing people called back is the budget, it has been set for this year and AMR is rather particular about not spending more than they have allocated for each department.

As for LCC competition, AMR is worried, but they now have one of the lowest CASMs of the legacies, AND they contribute to the pension plans. The pilots' plan is 80% funded and does not have the shortfall as some of the other carriers.

We start Shanghai next spring, rumuors have it that Delhi, and Hong Kong are also in the works. More crews and planes.

Our seniority numbers get shuffled around July 1st. Mine will be going down by almost 350 numbers, we had roughly 170+ early out so far as of May 30th. There seems to be hard evidence that 500-1000 at all bases have their paper work in and are waiting for word on pension modification by congress, the right A and B fund multiplier, or are finally just tired of putting up with this business.

None of this takes into account soaring oil prices, another SARS, more gloabl instablilty. However we lost 162 million in the first quarter, paying full price for gas. The first quarter is historically bad, and that loss is not that significant, we also raised our cash position. I think it is around 3.5+ billion.

Look for us to make a profit in the 2nd and 3rd quarter.

Hoping we recall soon, and hire again!!! Good Luck to all!!

AA

Agree with most of what you said, except 2nd & 3rd quarter profit estimates were based on oil in the high $40/bll range. In the high $50/bll range, I would expect a net loss.

 

[AAflyer]

80drvr,

My understanding was the 2nd and 3rd quarter results were based on actually fuel costs after the 1st quarter. However information is usually different from multiple sources.

We will soon see, hoping for the best!

AA

 

[singlespeed]

AAflyer,

I rode down to Dallas on AA last week. I want to say great ride and great service. Thanks a bunch

Every TWA/AA pilot I have talked with say they are not coming back. When push comes to shove how many do think will come back?

Thanks

 

[AAflyer]

Singlespeed,

It is hard to say, I know some of the TWA/AA guys that will come back. It depends what we look like when we start recalling. If we are making money, and starting to expand (Int'l) it could be more than expected. I use this as an example to UAL. My friend was recalled but deferred. He said 2 out of 3 are deferring due to where UAL is.

I am sure you know it is hard to speculate, if one of us could and do it accuratley we could make a lot of money.

Right now I would say maybe 2 out of 3 will take the call back. That is MY personal guess, it will once again depend on the state of industry and AMR when they recall.

Hope that helps, looking forward to the day we send out applications.

AA

P.S. Glad you were treated well.