The Big January Bid at SWA for AT

[Daddy]

What are guys going to do? Bid to get paid to sit and wait for training? Try to get left seat at any base? Try to lance captain?

What are they telling you? FO rates til qualified? CA rates for prior AT captains? Lance program will be dead by then?

I've heard many things. Upwards of 2 months for those going straight to the left seat among others. Widely distributed among the bases is another. It is unprecedented here at SWA and dwarfs the effect on the system that a new base even has which is substantial. Displacements and movement will happen everywhere. Could be good or bad for many.

 

[SWA Bubba]

What are guys going to do? Bid to get paid to sit and wait for training? Try to get left seat at any base? Try to lance captain?

What are they telling you? FO rates til qualified? CA rates for prior AT captains? Lance program will be dead by then?

I've heard many things. Upwards of 2 months for those going straight to the left seat among others. Widely distributed among the bases is another. It is unprecedented here at SWA and dwarfs the effect on the system that a new base even has which is substantial. Displacements and movement will happen everywhere. Could be good or bad for many.

Don't know about the rest of the stuff (pay, etc), but I don't think it will be a problem with displacements and movement. Since we'll only be adding people, and then at the same rate we are now as we can train them, bases are grown to accommodate larger numbers of pilots. You can only be displaced if your base shrinks (or a secondary displacement if another base shrinks), and that's not likely. So even as FAT guys come over as captains, they can't displace another captain out of base (or seat); they'll go to where there's openings, which will probably be everywhere.

On the other hand, when a new base opens, the others shrink a bit each to provide the manpower. That's why you can see displacements in that case--fewer pilots in the old base, so if not enough volunteers, someone gets bumped out the bottom. Not gonna' be the case in this situation.

Having said all that, there's a vacancy bid every month, and with 7000+ pilots, there's always people wanting to move from one place to another, so that even helps when there's little to no growth.

Bubba

 

[freightdogfred]

What about these "virtual bases" ? A feller with a flag tie tole me that when the Ipads are online, they can distribute the needed info electromagnetically so no need for for a big cheese with a big desk. Any truth to this?

 

[Daddy]

I'll believe that when i see it

 

[redflyer65]

What about these "virtual bases" ? A feller with a flag tie tole me that when the Ipads are online, they can distribute the needed info electromagnetically so no need for for a big cheese with a big desk. Any truth to this?

I could see it down the road. Timeframe? Could be years.

 

[Luv2BFlyin]

They have to way til all the old guys retire that are struggling with the Ipad. As far as how long that takes, I'd say it depends .

 

[BR715]

Lance. It will not be gone. We will not have a contract for at least 2 years. Any TA that comes from the company I will vote no on until I see a way to trade my trips with company trips. Elitt is a joke. All weekend flying trips in Elitt. Trip trade giveaway works sometimes but if that is the only thing you can rely on your month can stink.

 

[jimcav]

I wonder if a lot of the present lance capts are gonna bid capt positions in the next few vacancies, so they don't lose the position when the FATs can opt in. Anybody in the know?

 

[Daddy]

I think that is happening now. Lance is going more and more junior (more than normal) to not be stuck there (assumedly). I think guys don't want to be stuck in the right seat when the music stops for awhile. We will be very overmanned once its all done (abt next May). 2015 is going to be a really interesting year for everyone. It's one of those times where you have to remind yourself to be careful what you wish (or bid) for....you just might get it. Our vacancy bid system is about as goofy as it gets. Very convoluted....especially when you throw in lancing and a large influx of pilots with few airplanes coming with them.

 

[jimcav]

I'm also hearing upgrades and hiring to continue for the foreseeable future... New used airplanes????

 

[freightdogfred]

I think that is happening now. Lance is going more and more junior (more than normal) to not be stuck there (assumedly). I think guys don't want to be stuck in the right seat when the music stops for awhile. We will be very overmanned once its all done (abt next May). 2015 is going to be a really interesting year for everyone. It's one of those times where you have to remind yourself to be careful what you wish (or bid) for....you just might get it. Our vacancy bid system is about as goofy as it gets. Very convoluted....especially when you throw in lancing and a large influx of pilots with few airplanes coming with them.

So what that means is changing bases may not be an option...?

 

[Daddy]

It's possible that some folks will get "stuck" in one place or another depending on how they bid for vacancy and where the new pilots go and how the seniority falls out. We had new-hires stuck out west for a year or more at times...those who were too junior to bid back east. It's just a strange situation. In order to move bases there have to be openings to move into. Like I said, be careful what you wish for as you just might get it. The vacancy bid is complicated, especially with lance mixed in.

 

[Roomwithaview]

It's possible that some folks will get "stuck" in one place or another depending on how they bid for vacancy and where the new pilots go and how the seniority falls out. We had new-hires stuck out west for a year or more at times...those who were too junior to bid back east. It's just a strange situation. In order to move bases there have to be openings tTo move into. Like I said, be careful what you wish for as you just might get it. The vacancy bid is complicated, especially with lance mixed in.

Three factors, driving the Vacancy Question Mark Ship, post 2015.

1. Massive amount of Captain upgrades ahead of the tranny bell curve
2. The fact that about 500 captains have been unable to bid captain
3. The tranny bell curve.

A lot less noticeable than the Morris Bell curve but still there and there is one on the captain side as well. This means, depending on where you are on the seniority list, and captain or fo,things could happen much differently when awards come out.

If there is one substantial Captain vacancy bid post 2015 (which I predict there will be many) there will be some pretty big shaking up going on. And, just to make a point, a Vacancy can also contain a reduction.

Kelly has already claimed we're fat on pilots, low on planes. You do the math. It's either green bars, or reductions.

My strategy would be this. Hi 70K fo? Hold my powder and stay in the right seat. Get edumicated on Lance and see what kind of trickf*cks the DRC has in store for the future. We all need to remember that Tommy and Franky are still re-working the system to try and keep both sides contained and more importantly, Kelly happy.

OAK will more than likely still be the dumping ground for the juniority but there have been a fair amount of new hires since the acquisition AND, one has to ask themselves, "are we finished reducing MCO and ATL?". Additionally, the "rumor" is that ATL will be growing again to about twice the size it is now. Rumor.

FLL is coming. At least that's what I hear. If you want to live in FL and you're junior I think it will happen post 2015. However, it will be south of Loxahatchee.

 

[slaquer5]

Three factors, driving the Vacancy Question Mark Ship, post 2015.

1. Massive amount of Captain upgrades ahead of the tranny bell curve
2. The fact that about 500 captains have been unable to bid captain
3. The tranny bell curve.

A lot less noticeable than the Morris Bell curve but still there and there is one on the captain side as well. This means, depending on where you are on the seniority list, and captain or fo,things could happen much differently when awards come out.

If there is one substantial Captain vacancy bid post 2015 (which I predict there will be many) there will be some pretty big shaking up going on. And, just to make a point, a Vacancy can also contain a reduction.

Kelly has already claimed we're fat on pilots, low on planes. You do the math. It's either green bars, or reductions.

My strategy would be this. Hi 70K fo? Hold my powder and stay in the right seat. Get edumicated on Lance and see what kind of trickf*cks the DRC has in store for the future. We all need to remember that Tommy and Franky are still re-working the system to try and keep both sides contained and more importantly, Kelly happy.

OAK will more than likely still be the dumping ground for the juniority but there have been a fair amount of new hires since the acquisition AND, one has to ask themselves, "are we finished reducing MCO and ATL?". Additionally, the "rumor" is that ATL will be growing again to about twice the size it is now. Rumor.

FLL is coming. At least that's what I hear. If you want to live in FL and you're junior I think it will happen post 2015. However, it will be south of Loxahatchee.

I do not think Kelly said we are short AC or pilots .

He said we are 100 aircraft short.


You can interpret,that any way you want

 

[Daddy]

I don't care what he says...unless there's a big aircraft plus up, we are fat on pilots come springtime when all the transitions are done.

 

[StopNTSing]

Lots of used aircraft from all over the world are up at PAE right now in conversion (even some -700s from Alaska!)....something like about 15 total for this year I thought I heard. Not nearly enough to offset the 88 717s going over to Mother Delta, I know, but these used acft plus the continuing steady delivery of new -800s from Boeing is at least a good down payment on closing the deficit. Hopefully a whole lot more aircraft will be going through conversion next year, too. I'm wondering, though, if these acft may just be short-term place-holders in the fleet until the Max starts arriving in big numbers. Only time will tell...

 

[Saluki Dawg]

Hope and change! Explosive growth! Where do I sign?

 

[Luv2BFlyin]

Not nearly enough to offset the 88 717s going over to Mother Delta, QUOTE]

We've covered so much BS, I've simply forgot. If the 71 would have stayed and the 300's and 500's left at an accelerated pace as the 71's were converted, would we not be in a similar position? In fact, maybe better off as 2/3 of the pilot group would have only needed basic indoc and not necessitated the hiring of pilots to offset 200 pilots at a time in some phase of training. I'm not going back into the argument of the 71 stay vs. go, only trying to see the difference in net airframes and being fat on pilots.

 

[Luv2BFlyin]

Hope and change! Explosive growth! Where do I sign?

PCL and Wave can answer that for you. :0

 

[StopNTSing]

Hope and change! Explosive growth! Where do I sign?

Please do not mistake me for a company apologist. I joined the 5th & 20th club a long time ago. Just posting some fleet info I've seen/heard for anybodies info who cares (or not).