The Big January Bid at SWA for AT

[freightdogfred]

I think that is happening now. Lance is going more and more junior (more than normal) to not be stuck there (assumedly). I think guys don't want to be stuck in the right seat when the music stops for awhile. We will be very overmanned once its all done (abt next May). 2015 is going to be a really interesting year for everyone. It's one of those times where you have to remind yourself to be careful what you wish (or bid) for....you just might get it. Our vacancy bid system is about as goofy as it gets. Very convoluted....especially when you throw in lancing and a large influx of pilots with few airplanes coming with them.

So what that means is changing bases may not be an option...?

 

[Daddy]

It's possible that some folks will get "stuck" in one place or another depending on how they bid for vacancy and where the new pilots go and how the seniority falls out. We had new-hires stuck out west for a year or more at times...those who were too junior to bid back east. It's just a strange situation. In order to move bases there have to be openings to move into. Like I said, be careful what you wish for as you just might get it. The vacancy bid is complicated, especially with lance mixed in.

 

[Roomwithaview]

It's possible that some folks will get "stuck" in one place or another depending on how they bid for vacancy and where the new pilots go and how the seniority falls out. We had new-hires stuck out west for a year or more at times...those who were too junior to bid back east. It's just a strange situation. In order to move bases there have to be openings tTo move into. Like I said, be careful what you wish for as you just might get it. The vacancy bid is complicated, especially with lance mixed in.

Three factors, driving the Vacancy Question Mark Ship, post 2015.

1. Massive amount of Captain upgrades ahead of the tranny bell curve
2. The fact that about 500 captains have been unable to bid captain
3. The tranny bell curve.

A lot less noticeable than the Morris Bell curve but still there and there is one on the captain side as well. This means, depending on where you are on the seniority list, and captain or fo,things could happen much differently when awards come out.

If there is one substantial Captain vacancy bid post 2015 (which I predict there will be many) there will be some pretty big shaking up going on. And, just to make a point, a Vacancy can also contain a reduction.

Kelly has already claimed we're fat on pilots, low on planes. You do the math. It's either green bars, or reductions.

My strategy would be this. Hi 70K fo? Hold my powder and stay in the right seat. Get edumicated on Lance and see what kind of trickf*cks the DRC has in store for the future. We all need to remember that Tommy and Franky are still re-working the system to try and keep both sides contained and more importantly, Kelly happy.

OAK will more than likely still be the dumping ground for the juniority but there have been a fair amount of new hires since the acquisition AND, one has to ask themselves, "are we finished reducing MCO and ATL?". Additionally, the "rumor" is that ATL will be growing again to about twice the size it is now. Rumor.

FLL is coming. At least that's what I hear. If you want to live in FL and you're junior I think it will happen post 2015. However, it will be south of Loxahatchee.

 

[slaquer5]

Three factors, driving the Vacancy Question Mark Ship, post 2015.

1. Massive amount of Captain upgrades ahead of the tranny bell curve
2. The fact that about 500 captains have been unable to bid captain
3. The tranny bell curve.

A lot less noticeable than the Morris Bell curve but still there and there is one on the captain side as well. This means, depending on where you are on the seniority list, and captain or fo,things could happen much differently when awards come out.

If there is one substantial Captain vacancy bid post 2015 (which I predict there will be many) there will be some pretty big shaking up going on. And, just to make a point, a Vacancy can also contain a reduction.

Kelly has already claimed we're fat on pilots, low on planes. You do the math. It's either green bars, or reductions.

My strategy would be this. Hi 70K fo? Hold my powder and stay in the right seat. Get edumicated on Lance and see what kind of trickf*cks the DRC has in store for the future. We all need to remember that Tommy and Franky are still re-working the system to try and keep both sides contained and more importantly, Kelly happy.

OAK will more than likely still be the dumping ground for the juniority but there have been a fair amount of new hires since the acquisition AND, one has to ask themselves, "are we finished reducing MCO and ATL?". Additionally, the "rumor" is that ATL will be growing again to about twice the size it is now. Rumor.

FLL is coming. At least that's what I hear. If you want to live in FL and you're junior I think it will happen post 2015. However, it will be south of Loxahatchee.

I do not think Kelly said we are short AC or pilots .

He said we are 100 aircraft short.


You can interpret,that any way you want

 

[Daddy]

I don't care what he says...unless there's a big aircraft plus up, we are fat on pilots come springtime when all the transitions are done.

 

[StopNTSing]

Lots of used aircraft from all over the world are up at PAE right now in conversion (even some -700s from Alaska!)....something like about 15 total for this year I thought I heard. Not nearly enough to offset the 88 717s going over to Mother Delta, I know, but these used acft plus the continuing steady delivery of new -800s from Boeing is at least a good down payment on closing the deficit. Hopefully a whole lot more aircraft will be going through conversion next year, too. I'm wondering, though, if these acft may just be short-term place-holders in the fleet until the Max starts arriving in big numbers. Only time will tell...

 

[Saluki Dawg]

Hope and change! Explosive growth! Where do I sign?

 

[Luv2BFlyin]

Not nearly enough to offset the 88 717s going over to Mother Delta, QUOTE]

We've covered so much BS, I've simply forgot. If the 71 would have stayed and the 300's and 500's left at an accelerated pace as the 71's were converted, would we not be in a similar position? In fact, maybe better off as 2/3 of the pilot group would have only needed basic indoc and not necessitated the hiring of pilots to offset 200 pilots at a time in some phase of training. I'm not going back into the argument of the 71 stay vs. go, only trying to see the difference in net airframes and being fat on pilots.

 

[Luv2BFlyin]

Hope and change! Explosive growth! Where do I sign?

PCL and Wave can answer that for you. :0

 

[StopNTSing]

Hope and change! Explosive growth! Where do I sign?

Please do not mistake me for a company apologist. I joined the 5th & 20th club a long time ago. Just posting some fleet info I've seen/heard for anybodies info who cares (or not).