AMR/LCC Merger and Furlough Question...

[weasel_lips]

I'm starting class soon with US Airways. I know it's a gamble, as with anything I guess. I'm leaving a Captain seat at a good regional to go, mind you I have plenty of TPIC. I know this is a vague question with a million different opinions, but if the merger happens, is furlough right off the bat a real possibility?

First of all there is no such thing as a good regional. Even US East in its current (temporary) state is 1,000 times better. You will like it here despite what all the morons (none of which actually work at the US east side) will tell you on this disinformation board.

Of all times to get hired this is the lowest chance of furlough in history. If you are going to leave the regional now is the time to do it.

AMR/US have little overlap. Huge retirement wave just getting started now. (You could not have better timing). A new contract at US is going to result in a lot of hiring on its own. (more vacation for one). The new rest rules will result in more hiring as well. If there is no merger, you are fine too. We are at min fleet and block hours, so there will be no more shrinking.

I don't believe the last big mergers resulted in furloughs. (DAL/NWA, UAL/CAL, SWA/AIRTRAN) And that will be the case here as well.

You have made a good move, congratulations, enjoy it, and don't look back.

 

[The Drizzle]

What he said. I left a senior, well enough paid regional captain position to come here. If I eat a furlough, I'll do so without regret.

 

[Bringupthebird]

Even US East in its current (temporary) state is 1,000 times better.

Temporary. 7 years is temporary? It's about 20% of the average pilots career.

You will like it here despite what all the morons (none of which actually work at the US east side) will tell you on this disinformation board.

Unless a Southwest pilot buys a rental property next to your house and comes over to chat.

Of all times to get hired this is the lowest chance of furlough in history.That is the same thing that most furloughed pilots heard when they hired on. Except that the one telling them that didn't have furlough/downbid protection.

If you are going to leave the regional now is the time to do it.

Or when the dust settles on the merger. If the boom is as big as they claim, what's the harm in waiting. If it's not...

AMR/US have little overlap. Huge retirement wave just getting started now. (You could not have better timing).

What magic wand does Doug Parker have to generate profits that Horton didn't have? Oh, yeah, losing the fleet minimums in the current TA and a permanent injunction against it's most divisive labor group.

A new contract at US is going to result in a lot of hiring on its own. (more vacation for one). The new rest rules will result in more hiring as well. If there is no merger, you are fine too. We are at min fleet and block hours, so there will be no more shrinking.

USAPA will need to get a contract with PArker if there is no merger. The biggest chip they have to bargain with is elimination of any protections in exchange for conspiring to use DOH.

I don't believe the last big mergers resulted in furloughs. (DAL/NWA, UAL/CAL, SWA/AIRTRAN) And that will be the case here as well.

When were the AWA pilots furloughed? This will be the biggest, weakest airline merger yet, facing a fiscal cliff and anemic recovery. The airline must be fed a steady stream of cash and any interruption to that flow (global unrest, stock market dive) will result in these guys dumping whatever is necessary to survive until the full integration is complete.

Everyone has to make their own choices, but there is a significant risk that will be reduced once the merger either comes or not. Additionally, the toxic relationship east and west will not vaporize just because the APA becomes the sheriff. The memories of how much damage USAPA did will linger and it will be hard for many folks who had to spend thousands of their own dollars to fight an out-of-control union to move on. Eventually those people will have to share crew rooms and hotel vans and cockpits. Choosing to hitch your future to that environment is not a decision to be made lightly or hastily. The return on investment in your career should be more than just bitter regrets for suffering the actions of others.

 

[General Lee]

The toxic mess between the East and the West will be resolved legally, and that will be that. The APA will not put up with USAPA's shananigans. After the SLI is finally taken care of and the Easties cannot back out of it, the Easties will mostly all retire, and then all will be good again. Moving to US before the merger is a GOOD idea for any Regional pilot. Both AA and US will have HUGE retirements over the next few years, and that will help with QOL, and a new contract will bring up the pay, especially for the US guys that have been stuck due to the Easties intransigence. I would say it's a good move.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Bringupthebird]

The toxic mess between the East and the West will be resolved legally, and that will be that. The APA will not put up with USAPA's shananigans. After the SLI is finally taken care of and the Easties cannot back out of it, the Easties will mostly all retire, and then all will be good again. Moving to US before the merger is a GOOD idea for any Regional pilot. Both AA and US will have HUGE retirements over the next few years, and that will help with QOL, and a new contract will bring up the pay, especially for the US guys that have been stuck due to the Easties intransigence. I would say it's a good move.


Bye Bye---General Lee

I wish I could share your optimism. USAPA will likely accept Nic with enough fences around CLT/DCA/PHL/PHX to nullify the effects, thus indemnifying APA and placating the east. You really don't think the east is that much older than the west, do you? And the APA has no experience in playing the role of white knight to other pilot groups, so I expect they'll have a hard time catching on.

Usually you have fairly good insight on thses sort of things, but here I see you getting caught up in the fantasy of a fairy godunion coming to make things right. I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[weasel_lips]

Leave it to bird brain to drag this thread back into the crapper

 

[filejw]

No. But if you are on voluntary furlough or haven't come back from furlough on your own, and somebody below you has come back, he will not be placed in front of you on the list. Nobody can hopscotch above you on your own list.


Bye Bye---General Lee

Err. Yes Republic / Air West......People on the street took up to 18 months to be recalled.List was based on length of service as I recall.

 

[SWA/FO]

Exactly. Even in arbitration, everyone hired after the merger announcement gets stapled.

Thats not fair!!!

 

[johnsonrod]

You'll probably see many of the older Easties proactively retire after the NIC award is finally implemented - as it should be. So, there should be space for you.

Merry Christmas!

 

[thruthemurk]

How many pilots does AA have on furlough? I would think that would eat up quite a few years of retirement.

 

[Green]

1700?

 

[General Lee]

Leave it to bird brain to drag this thread back into the crapper

You probably have other bird "parts." Sorry, but the truth hurts, and the Easties won't be able to sweep it under the rug when and if they merge with AA and the APA gets involved. It's a binding award. Get used to that! Merry Xmas!


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[AA717driver]

My worst day at TWA (under Icahn, even) was still better than my best day at ARW (and that was when ARW was at the top of the heap for regionals).

Go get a number and wait for the retirements to kick in. You're going to be junior regardless AND you're going to be at risk for furlough regardless.

TC

 

[JudgeSmails218]

There's no guarantees in life; especially this industry.
But, given the attrition coming up I would not be worried
about a furlough. As someone else alluded to US will need to
hire for the new rest rules as well as 5 330 s coming in
2013 AND our big wave of attrition. I think you're getting
in at a great time. Welcome!

 

[kj6991]

Thank you to everyone for the thoughts. Happy holidays.

 

[Dan Roman]

Ten tears from now you will be very senior. Congrats on getting hired at what will be the start of a lot of hiring.

 

[Turtle21]

Ten tears from now you will be very senior. Congrats on getting hired at what will be the start of a lot of hiring.

Ten tears... Is that foreshadowing a rough road to being senior?

 

[Dan Roman]

Ten tears... Is that foreshadowing a rough road to being senior?

Opps Freudian slip! YEARS! The reality is USAir/AMR will survive. Their "troubles" will be behind them and I'm sure there will be little difference working for either UAL, AMR, or DAL.

 

[Daddy]

How many pilots does AA have on furlough? I would think that would eat up quite a few years of retirement.

This was my point. Thank you, murk.

There are a LOT of old dudes at both, but there are a LOT of furloughees who still have "employment rights" and may very well come running back from their corporate/fractional/JBLU/whatever jobs when the new contract gets signed. This guy could spend a good while at the bottom or even be furloughed if there is a "shrink to profitability" plan in place. No one really knows what will happen, but I think it's a pretty good bet he will not go in front of the furloughed pilots on the final SLI given all the racking and stacking that will need to be done in arbitration (East/West/AMR).

The bottom SWA guys ended up behind everyone (not opining about that either way because it is irrelevant here) and I would bet he does too.

My major point is if this guy has a good, secure job and making a decent living right now, I would think twice about leaving it for USAirways who is almost assuredly going to merge soon with an airline that has approximately 1700 pilots on the street and will be in the majority when the votes are cast. I'm not saying he shouldn't go...I'm just saying he should be ready for anything if he does.

 

[General Lee]

AA and US East are full of old pilots. Not all of the 1700 furloughed guys are coming back, maybe half. They will need to hire thousands. If you can get in within the first part of the hiring wave, maybe the first thousand, leave your regional. Maybe even the second thousand too. If you're at the end of a big hiring wave, life could be rough for years.


Bye Bye---General Lee