Looking at the TA that has been presented, I have to say, even though its on the low end of economic gains, I could live with it, except for the scope.
My initial reaction was that the pay was low, but after digesting this thing for a while, the scope is really the lacking area.
My decision flow goes kinda like this:
Givens:
-compensation increase is low but acceptable given the early implementation/short duration
-allowing the 76 seaters to become cemented into outsourced territory sucks a$$. They are in wet cement presently, but this TA will allow the cement to set, and they will basically be gone for the future.
Prognosis:
-If this TA is voted down, I do not see enough cohesion within the DAL pilot group (nor ALPA) to capture all 76 seat flying. The upper 51% really only want money. The lower 49% want 1)money and 2)scope. It just doesn't have the footing. I think the mental line is at 90-100 seat range, the 76 seat ship has sailed in the collective mind of DAL pilots, and ALPA as an organization. That decision was reached at sometime in the past, but no captain I have flown with in the past 2 years has said "we have got to turn the tide on 76 seat aircraft". And the FOs don't walk around saying "the 76 seaters are killing my career". It is simply not a priority.
-If this TA is voted down, DAL pilots will likely spend a more "normal" time negotiating a marginally better agreement. I personally don't think scope would be improved significantly in this event.
Forward looking:
-The scope issue really should have some nationalized strategy overtly being espoused by alpa. Something like "ALPA will NOT be a signatory to any further agreements that allow XX-seaters at another of our legacy carriers". Which is not being communicated at all. But it is being demonstrated, de facto, by virtue of this TA seeing the light of day. I can only believe that ALPA, at the national level down to the local level, has resigned/agreed/colluded to have the 76 seaters exist in the domain of outsourced flying. If this were not the case, this TA would not be a TA, it would be a non-starter. Which is the crux of the conflict of interest argument that may prove to be the downfall of ALPA.
-To me, comparisons to SWA having no RJs do not account for present reality. Southwest has spend the past couple of decades building its company and culture around having no RJs. Tip-of-the-hat (or long-neck) to you. Excellent business plan your execs have implemented, that has benefited the company and the pilots there immensely. Delta has spent the past couple of decades building a network to incorporate them, to the detriment of the pilot group. Nothing can be done to change either of those facts. Having no RJs at DAL would be ideal, but unfortunately, not gonna happen.
To walk into a negotiation and say "we will not have another 76 seater outsourced, we want mainline pilots to fly them, period" could be done. There is no way that any executive leadership team would let that go for less than the expected "return on invested capital" loss that would be realized by DAL. The number is huge. Think of the cost savings not only from lower cost structure of the contractors, but also the savings of pitting those contractors against each other, without end. No one here would be willing to pay that number for the 76 seat flying because it makes no economic sense. The career enhancement $-numbers simply will not bear it given the current realities of legacy airlines. If you spend your time believing otherwise, its fantasy-land.
I dont know where the 76 seaters got their nose into the tent first, compass, comair, or somewhere else. It was most likely at an ALPA carrier. Thanks ALPA. (It was given away WAY too cheaply.)
Lets just make sure its not 100 seaters next....
if you're on this forum hating on 76 seat scope, go volunteer within your own union to be the guy who says "enough".