UAL/CAL/AMR/USAIR/DELTA Retirements

[BrickTop]

I know we all remember the preaching rants of Kit Darby and his claim to the "massive retirements" just around the bend (hogwash). I would like some REAL factual numbers of the pilots age 60+ and what percentage they make of pilots at their respective airline's. I don't see the onslaught of retirement coming at the rate Kit or any other aviation analyst has ever predicted. Most were sales pitches formed by some marketing team for crash course flight schools. The age variance to the naked eye is still well spread (just look in the terminals most look 45-55) and a more steady pace of retirement over the next 20 years seems more practical. Mostly to discard the hopes that even a poor economy will necessitate pilot hiring in the magical 3 years due to rapid attrition. There is no hope in sight for the bottom 1/3rd of the industry for the foreseeable future and I think the evidence is rather clear.

 

[PeanuckleCRJ]

DL retirements peak from 2018-2025 with 800 or so a year.

They don't really pick up until like 2014 even with the NWA oldies.

 

[NuGuy]

DL retirements peak from 2018-2025 with 800 or so a year.

They don't really pick up until like 2014 even with the NWA oldies.

Not quite true....there will be probably close to 300 this year with the prips and other retirements....

Nu

 

[Green]

US Airways retirements will be massive if they are still in business. That is a BIG 'if.' Most of the easties are as old as Moses.

 

[PeanuckleCRJ]

Not quite true....there will be probably close to 300 this year with the prips and other retirements....

Nu

Good point. I kind of consider this year an anomally b/c of the PRIP. Hopefully the boost now doesn't stagnate things later.

 

[another cfii]

2018-2025? Let me do some math... I suppose the newhire of the past 2 years will have about a whooping 13 years to enjoy this boost... Translation. Suck it up until then.

PS: Age 65 sucks.

 

[PeanuckleCRJ]

2018-2025? Let me do some math... I suppose the newhire of the past 2 years will have about a whooping 13 years to enjoy this boost... Translation. Suck it up until then.

PS: Age 65 sucks.

I agree Age 65 sucks... however read my words a bit more carefully. I said retirements "peak" at that time. A junior pilot on this list will be moving up almost 1000 numbers a year during that time (probably more than that now.. it was already 800 a year before the merger...time for age 75 then??)

Up until there is still movement- moreso now with NWA. Read that as around 200-300 a year and steadily increasing beyond 2012. With the PRIPs accounted for, I'll have moved up around 300 numbers since the SLI.

 

[jmreii]

I know we all remember the preaching rants of Kit Darby and his claim to the "massive retirements" just around the bend (hogwash). I would like some REAL factual numbers of the pilots age 60+ and what percentage they make of pilots at their respective airline's. I don't see the onslaught of retirement coming at the rate Kit or any other aviation analyst has ever predicted. Most were sales pitches formed by some marketing team for crash course flight schools. The age variance to the naked eye is still well spread (just look in the terminals most look 45-55) and a more steady pace of retirement over the next 20 years seems more practical. Mostly to discard the hopes that even a poor economy will necessitate pilot hiring in the magical 3 years due to rapid attrition. There is no hope in sight for the bottom 1/3rd of the industry for the foreseeable future and I think the evidence is rather clear.

Your focus should read which airlines will still be in business vs how many retirements from each airline. I bet you some of the old guys will outlast their airline.

 

[instructordude]

2018-2025? Let me do some math... I suppose the newhire of the past 2 years will have about a whooping 13 years to enjoy this boost... Translation. Suck it up until then.

PS: Age 65 sucks.

PS: Discrimination sucks

 

[IAHERJ]

How about UAL? I don't have the CAL numbers handy but am quite sure things will start to move around here again beginning in 2012. The 737's keep coming but the 787's start arriving at the same time we start to see all the retirements again. Training department will be busy beginning in the Fall of 2011 based on scheduled deliveries and retirements alone. Through in a merger with UAL and who knows. Anybody have any UAL retirement numbers?

 

[Browntothebone]

2018-2025? Let me do some math... I suppose the newhire of the past 2 years will have about a whooping 13 years to enjoy this boost... Translation. Suck it up until then.

PS: Age 65 sucks.

I disagree. I'm all in favor of 65 and I'll tell you why. I'm an F/O near 40. I make just over $200,000 a year. By the time I hit 60, I should be making $500,000 a year easy. I have no expenses and the house is already paid off.
So, those five extra years from 60 to 65 will be an extra $2.5 MILLION for doing practically nothing. I'll be very senior by then and have lots of vacation, so I'll easily be able to work less than 1/3 of each year. You'd be crazy to turn down $2.5 MILLION for flying only a couple hundred hours a year at most. Plus, that $2.5 MILLION does not include our B fund contributions of over $300,000 for those five years.

 

[mesaserf]

I remember my freshman orientation back in 1980’s our dean told us that their will be a massive pilot shortage when the Vietnam era pilots retire form the airlines.

I’m going to have to remember next time I’m back up north to get really drunk. Then go and find the memorial plaque that’s on the campus building they named after the prick…. and pee on it.

Pilot shortage my ass…

 

[Browntothebone]

I remember my freshman orientation back in 1980’s our dean told us that their will be a massive pilot shortage when the Vietnam era pilots retire form the airlines.

I’m going to have to remember next time I’m back up north to get really drunk. Then go and find the memorial plaque that’s on the campus building they named after the prick…. and pee on it.

Pilot shortage my ass…

Curious, Why would your high school dean be talking about a pilot shortage during orientation?

 

[Green]

I disagree. I'm all in favor of 65 and I'll tell you why. I'm an F/O near 40. I make just over $200,000 a year. By the time I hit 60, I should be making $500,000 a year easy. I have no expenses and the house is already paid off.
So, those five extra years from 60 to 65 will be an extra $2.5 MILLION for doing practically nothing. I'll be very senior by then and have lots of vacation, so I'll easily be able to work less than 1/3 of each year. You'd be crazy to turn down $2.5 MILLION for flying only a couple hundred hours a year at most. Plus, that $2.5 MILLION does not include our B fund contributions of over $300,000 for those five years.

quite a few UAL pilots were thinking the same thing about 9 years ago. Now a bunch are furloughed and the ones still working are making half of what they were. They had FO's making 220 hr flying two trips a month. CA's topped out at 340/hr. They could expect at least 150k/year until they died in pension payouts plus a 7 figure B Fund. They were making more in the year 2000 than FedEx pilots are today.

Good luck with your dream though! Just don't plan on it, things change. One thing is for sure, you won't ever hit 500k per year if the pax side of the business doesn't see significant raises. Management will never agree to paying you triple what the rest of the industry makes.

 

[CapnVegetto]

I do know that my buddy tells me after the age 65 fallout crap ends, CAL will be losing about 58% of its pilot group in just a few years due to retirements. Even if there is a UAL merger, stuff is gonna be moving there. I don't know about UAL's group, but hell, they have to be pretty old too. When was the last time they even hired?

 

[Flopgut]

You know what I'm going to enjoy guys? I'm going to enjoy reading the the obituaries of the guys who are taking such satisfaction in 65 right now. They won't get 65 increased again, they aren't going to make that much in the mean time, and the timing of their mass exodus will suit pilot supply/demand metrics quite well for the rest of us.

I bet they don't live past 70. They have funerals, we have futures. We just have to get through these next few years.

 

[JimmyKool]

I don't have exact numbers for ual and have lost interest in caring but before this age 65 crap it was anywhere between 170-300 a year. If I had to average from what I remember in indoc I'd say 220 a year. Seems like someone passed around a list in class but I probably tossed it.

 

[Scope out RJ's]

PS: Discrimination sucks

P.P.S. YOU suck!

 

[Superpilot92]

DL retirements peak from 2018-2025 with 800 or so a year.

They don't really pick up until like 2014 even with the NWA oldies.

That assumes EVERYONE stays till 65 which is highly unlikely.

 

[ualdriver]

Anybody have any UAL retirement numbers?

These were based on Age 60. Add 5 years....

[FONT=&quot]2007 - 263
2008 - 235
2009 - 231
2010 - 201
2011 - 167
2012 - 228
2013 - 246
2014 - 239
2015 - 271
2016 - 330
2017 - 305
2018 - 383
2019 - 356
2020 - 461
2021 - 508
2022 - 503
2023 - 574
2025 - 539
2026 - 561
2027 – 407[/FONT]

When we were hot and heavy about merging the first time around, I saw some projections at a union meeting for retirements at both airlines. If I'm not mistaken, if you plotted our retirements by year on a X-Y type axis, they looked like two sine waves almost 180 degrees out of phase, meaning our higher retirement years would offset your lower retirement years and vice versa.