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UAL/CAL/AMR/USAIR/DELTA Retirements

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BrickTop

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 26, 2006
Posts
554
I know we all remember the preaching rants of Kit Darby and his claim to the "massive retirements" just around the bend (hogwash). I would like some REAL factual numbers of the pilots age 60+ and what percentage they make of pilots at their respective airline's. I don't see the onslaught of retirement coming at the rate Kit or any other aviation analyst has ever predicted. Most were sales pitches formed by some marketing team for crash course flight schools. The age variance to the naked eye is still well spread (just look in the terminals most look 45-55) and a more steady pace of retirement over the next 20 years seems more practical. Mostly to discard the hopes that even a poor economy will necessitate pilot hiring in the magical 3 years due to rapid attrition. There is no hope in sight for the bottom 1/3rd of the industry for the foreseeable future and I think the evidence is rather clear.
 
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DL retirements peak from 2018-2025 with 800 or so a year.

They don't really pick up until like 2014 even with the NWA oldies.
 
US Airways retirements will be massive if they are still in business. That is a BIG 'if.' Most of the easties are as old as Moses.
 
Not quite true....there will be probably close to 300 this year with the prips and other retirements....

Nu


Good point. I kind of consider this year an anomally b/c of the PRIP. Hopefully the boost now doesn't stagnate things later.
 
2018-2025? Let me do some math... I suppose the newhire of the past 2 years will have about a whooping 13 years to enjoy this boost... Translation. Suck it up until then.

PS: Age 65 sucks.
 
2018-2025? Let me do some math... I suppose the newhire of the past 2 years will have about a whooping 13 years to enjoy this boost... Translation. Suck it up until then.

PS: Age 65 sucks.


I agree Age 65 sucks... however read my words a bit more carefully. I said retirements "peak" at that time. A junior pilot on this list will be moving up almost 1000 numbers a year during that time (probably more than that now.. it was already 800 a year before the merger...time for age 75 then??)

Up until there is still movement- moreso now with NWA. Read that as around 200-300 a year and steadily increasing beyond 2012. With the PRIPs accounted for, I'll have moved up around 300 numbers since the SLI.
 
I know we all remember the preaching rants of Kit Darby and his claim to the "massive retirements" just around the bend (hogwash). I would like some REAL factual numbers of the pilots age 60+ and what percentage they make of pilots at their respective airline's. I don't see the onslaught of retirement coming at the rate Kit or any other aviation analyst has ever predicted. Most were sales pitches formed by some marketing team for crash course flight schools. The age variance to the naked eye is still well spread (just look in the terminals most look 45-55) and a more steady pace of retirement over the next 20 years seems more practical. Mostly to discard the hopes that even a poor economy will necessitate pilot hiring in the magical 3 years due to rapid attrition. There is no hope in sight for the bottom 1/3rd of the industry for the foreseeable future and I think the evidence is rather clear.

Your focus should read which airlines will still be in business vs how many retirements from each airline. I bet you some of the old guys will outlast their airline.
 
How about UAL? I don't have the CAL numbers handy but am quite sure things will start to move around here again beginning in 2012. The 737's keep coming but the 787's start arriving at the same time we start to see all the retirements again. Training department will be busy beginning in the Fall of 2011 based on scheduled deliveries and retirements alone. Through in a merger with UAL and who knows. Anybody have any UAL retirement numbers?
 

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