NWA pilots want stake in merged carrier....article

[FDJ2]

No, just collectively toss a few thousand sacrificial pilots under the "synergy" bus and they'll have a better career to come back to while the majority get to pocket the change....

First things first, is the merger good for the pilot group? If not, it wont be supported by the respective MECs. Obviously a merger that "synergizes" pilots is not going to be well received.

Companies merge to consolidate operations, reduce redundancies, and cut costs. Period.

Companies also merge to expand their markets and increase revenue. Not all mergers are designed to reduce pilot head count and not all mergers result in pilot furloughs. How many pilots were furloughed at AAA or AWA after the merger?

 

[JoeMerchant]

No, just collectively toss a few thousand sacrificial pilots under the "synergy" bus and they'll have a better career to come back to while the majority get to pocket the change....

First things first, is the merger good for the pilot group? If not, it wont be supported by the respective MECs. Obviously a merger that "synergizes" pilots is not going to be well received.

Companies merge to consolidate operations, reduce redundancies, and cut costs. Period.

Companies also merge to expand their markets and increase revenue. Not all mergers are designed to reduce pilot head count and not all mergers result in pilot furloughs. How many pilots were furloughed at AAA or AWA after the merger?

FDJ2 is relatively senior.....he won't be thrown under the bus, and he wants the company to be healthier.....

ALPA is very predictable....Those with the most to lose start to become very pragmatic when it comes to these issues....Solidarity takes a back seat to self preservation.....Always has and always will......

Retirement, Age 60, mergers, scope.......It all depends on whose Ox is getting gored.....

 

[NuGuy]

But hey, if it wasn't me and I'd get a fat pay raise and other goodies in the bargain I'd be gung-ho too.

Not that that's ever happened before...or the revisionist history that followed...

Nu

 

[FDJ2]

FDJ2 is relatively senior..........

Since you know, how senior am I?

 

[Occam's Razor]

No, just collectively toss a few thousand sacrificial pilots under the "synergy" bus and they'll have a better career to come back to while the majority get to pocket the change....

You mean like the USAirways-American West merger led to furloughs?

Wait! They're hiring?

Companies merge to consolidate operations, reduce redundancies, and cut costs. Period. RA is even saying they will cut domestic capacity by 4-5%.

The redundancies aren't in the cockpit. They're in HR, Reservations, Tech Ops, Benefits Department, Marketing, IT, and blessedly...the head shed.

The domestic capacity probably WILL be reduced. ("Joe Merchant, Crew Skeds on Line 2!") International capacity WILL be increased. Since International flying takes more pilots than Domestic flying...

I'd like to see the fuzzy math that says you can cut capacity, pay more and preserve jobs and enhance careers.

If the "capacity" you're cutting isn't the two airlines being merged...it's easy. If your Alliance partners are interested in buying a bigger stake in the merged operation...it gets even easier.

Any talk of economies of scale that will result in the ability to pay the net sum of 2 pilot groups more money than before the merger is pure bovine scatology.

Agree! it has nothing to do with economies of scale! (Whew! For a minute there...I thought you'd gone stupid on me!)

I'll wager on a 1000 furloughs minimum. But hey, if it wasn't me and I'd get a fat pay raise and other goodies in the bargain I'd be gung-ho too.

Ouch! Somebody needs a hug!

Are you including the 200 furloughs due to Age 65 passing?

Oh wait! That didn't happen!

Are suggesting that the two airlines, that are both currently hiring just to cover attrition, will be able to handle the aircraft deliveries and new route authorities by raising the caps?

How'd that go last Summer?

You're scared, and you're wearing blinders. That's cool. There are others that aren't, and they're doing the work.

 

[Fly4hire]

The redundancies aren't in the cockpit. They're in HR, Reservations, Tech Ops, Benefits Department, Marketing, IT, and blessedly...the head shed.

The domestic capacity probably WILL be reduced. ("Joe Merchant, Crew Skeds on Line 2!") International capacity WILL be increased. Since International flying takes more pilots than Domestic flying...

There too. However every analyst out there is saying merge to reduce capacity. Yes, Intl takes more pilots. but what does 6% domestic in block hours equate to 16% Intl block hours? Could still be waaaay in the red. Also Intl is staffed 2:1 with F/O's for augment. What does that do to upgrades and career progression? Depending on an integration methodology, pilots could lose big time in the out years on WB positions due the difference in average ages of the work force.

If the "capacity" you're cutting isn't the two airlines being merged...it's easy. If your Alliance partners are interested in buying a bigger stake in the merged operation...it gets even easier.

To date the internal capacity cuts have all been NB with RJ/SJ growth. What makes you think that will suddenly reverse in a merger? Unless there is another BK, NWA and DAL can't simply walk away from those expensive air services agreements, nor do they seem inclined to do so - they are growing them as fast as they can, especially in the NB replacement category.

Are you including the 200 furloughs due to Age 65 passing? Oh wait! That didn't happen! How'd that go last Summer? You're scared, and you're wearing blinders. That's cool. There are others that aren't, and they're doing the work.

No, I simply don't buy the sunshine that covers the disconnect between why the financial community wants consolidation - to reduce capacity and save on fuel costs - and that this will result in a better career for everyone. Even if it does not result in furloughs (which I doubt) it could certainly result massive career stagnation. If you are at NWA, happen to be on a WB now the risk/reward looks a lot better than if you have 15-20 to go.

Bottom line is NO mergers is the best the scenario for us, and everyone should be mucho suspicious when ALPA start buying the synergy tripe the WJ wonks and management are putting out.

Perhaps Anderson's vision of a global airline will really benefit all - and if it does it will be first. The track record on mergers for pilots has never lived up to the pre-merger hype and predictions that are always trumpeted. Maybe this time will be different.........

 

[Occam's Razor]

However every analyst out there is saying merge to reduce capacity.

Which will happen. It won't because some dork on Wall Street things it'd be really cool. It'll happen because the overlap in the systems means you don't need 4 RJ's a day (within the same system!) fighting over revenue in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

The analysts aren't looking at Load Factors and International growth in terms of ASM's.

Yes, Intl takes more pilots. but what does 6% domestic in block hours equate to 16% Intl block hours?

Huh?

(Watch out. Fly4hire is wary of "fuzzy math"!)

Any reduction in domestic flying will be at the Airlink level. It's that way because:

1. Airport saturation. The threat of "congestion pricing" at JFK spooked airlines into swapping 50-70 jets for 125-seaters in there because they were getting "slot limited"...not "size limited". The other business O&D cities are the same way (except DEN). Delays and disruptions in each system due to airport saturation are a significant inefficiency.

2. The Airlinks can be whipsaw'd, and mainline-owned assets ("jets") can be transfered over to a different Airlink. Any examples of THAT out there? The Airlinks are having a tough time staying staffed right now. That means a reduction in blockhours enhances the completion rate...which is one of the performance requirements for each Airlink to earn it's full hourly rate under the Agreement.

3. The Airlinks can't multi-task. B757's operate from the mainland to Hawaii, across the Atlantic, and InterPort out of the NRT hub. They can also fill the bill domestically when Marketing needs the added lift. CRJ's and EMB-170 can't.

Also Intl is staffed 2:1 with F/O's for augment. What does that do to upgrades and career progression?

More blockhours = More pilots. (Archive that, it's an important concept)

Both the utilization rates and the baseline pilots-per-hull ratios (Check latest Scope Score Card) put International flying waaaay ahead of domestic. The B787 will be double-crewed...just like the B777 is.

Depending on an integration methodology, pilots could lose big time in the out years on WB positions due the difference in average ages of the work force.

Got me there! A crappy integration could stymie advancement to widebody flying. Except WB positions are now just about the most junior at both airlines! (B747 S/O and B767ER F/O going to New Hires)

To date the internal capacity cuts have all been NB with RJ/SJ growth. What makes you think that will suddenly reverse in a merger?

You're wrong. You said, "To date". Go back and check your Scope Score Card's from 2001...when we were buying RJ's, parking, WB's, and HIRING. The number of pilots furloughed matched the number of pilot positions lost to parked WB aircraft almost exactly! (928-952) That is creepy close!

Had we kept those WB seats...no furloughs.

Now, as we add WB seats (and/or International flying), we're hiring.

Attrition has been a contributing factor, and I take your point, but your premise that Airlink flying will usurp enough NB flying to cause a net loss in pilot jobs (all things considered) is wrong. I've been a staffing wonk too long.

Unless there is another BK, NWA and DAL can't simply walk away from those expensive air services agreements, nor do they seem inclined to do so...

Oh yes they can! If any Airlink fails to perform, they can be dropped like a Romo pass to T.O.! The Airlinks also have no say in...well...almost everything! They don't set ticket prices, timetables, livery, aircraft type or purchase, or gates. The mainline giveth...and the mainline can taketh away. They're called "Weasel Clauses" because they were invented and written by weasels. If your suggesting any of the Airlinks can dictate the outcome of a potential merger negotiation between mainlines...we'll have to disagree.

No, I simply don't buy the sunshine that covers the disconnect between why the financial community wants consolidation - to reduce capacity and save on fuel costs - and that this will result in a better career for everyone.

Ok. I understand. I'm a skeptic too. But I'm looking at what I KNOW, right now, about our status quo...and I weigh that against what could be if a deal were done right.

Even if it does not result in furloughs (which I doubt) it could certainly result massive career stagnation. If you are at NWA, happen to be on a WB now the risk/reward looks a lot better than if you have 15-20 to go.

Not getting to a WB is "stagnation"? (sigh) Color me stagnate! Grab next month's bid list and check out the seniority number of the NB guys on the first page of each aircraft/base.

Surprise!

We COULD see some stagnation. Of course. I also believe that some will see it even if there is none! (Some pilots are funny that way...)

Bottom line is NO mergers is the best the scenario for us, and everyone should be mucho suspicious when ALPA start buying the synergy tripe the WJ wonks and management are putting out.

You're right, and I don't think ALPA is "buying" anything. I think both sides are viewing the opportunities and weighing them against the hazards.

Perhaps Anderson's vision of a global airline will really benefit all - and if it does it will be first.

Yeah, that UAL purchase of PanAm's Pacific stuff was lame. Ditto the DAL purchase of the Atlantic. Absolute failures!

The track record on mergers for pilots has never lived up to the pre-merger hype and predictions that are always trumpeted. Maybe this time will be different.........

Maybe. Maybe not. Fortune favors the bold.

 

[Fly4hire]

Which will happen. It won't because some dork on Wall Street things it'd be really cool. It'll happen because the overlap in the systems means you don't need 4 RJ's a day (within the same system!) fighting over revenue in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

If we can reduce feeder block hours within the ASA's I'll accept your point. If we are beholden to a certain number of block hours then we are hosed. Hopefully our weasels are bigger than their weasels.

More blockhours = More pilots. (Archive that, it's an important concept)

Sure, but if the WB growth makes up for domestic NB loss we still lose a crap load of NB Captain positions. DC9 Captains still pays quite a bit more than 744 F/O, and some of us would actually rather fly NB Captain than WB F/O - there will be a lot less of that to go around.

Got me there! A crappy integration could stymie advancement to widebody flying. Except WB positions are now just about the most junior at both airlines! (B747 S/O and B767ER F/O going to New Hires)

Caution : BS Meter pegged - we have a small withering fleet of ancient 747-200 freighters - yes the S/O seat is to going to NH's, however the apple to apple comparison to the 767 - 330 F/O - is 11 years at NWA :bomb:

If your suggesting any of the Airlinks can dictate the outcome of a potential merger negotiation between mainlines...we'll have to disagree.

No, just not sure we can drop the capacity here, or will if we can. Believe me I'd love to see those CRJ's be turned into beer cans.

fortune favors the bold.

And you can do anything you set your mind to when you have vision, determination, and an endless supply of expendable labor.

 

[Clacker]

DC9 Captains still pays quite a bit more than 744 F/O, and some of us would actually rather fly NB Captain than WB F/O - there will be a lot less of that to go around.

Actually, a 12 yr DC9 Captain makes four (4) bucks an hour more than a 744 F/O.

(A little extra change for the vending machine on that ten and a half hour GRR layover...)

 

[jonjuan]

Actually, a 12 yr DC9 Captain makes four (4) bucks an hour more than a 744 F/O.

(A little extra change for the vending machine on that ten and a half hour GRR layover...)

Yeah, but that PIC time will be more valuable when it's time to move on.

 

[Superpilot92]

Yeah, but that PIC time will be more valuable when it's time to move on.

Look Ma, a comedian!!:erm:

 

[DTW320]

Actually, a 12 yr DC9 Captain makes four (4) bucks an hour more than a 744 F/O.

(A little extra change for the vending machine on that ten and a half hour GRR layover...)

Actually, $3.59/hr more for -9CA (less than 3% more) BEFORE intl override on the 400FO. With the Intl Override the 400 FO makes more.

 

[Fly4hire]

Actually, $3.59/hr more for -9CA (less than 3% more) BEFORE intl override on the 400FO. With the Intl Override the 400 FO makes more.

You are correct, however there are only 229 744 F/O positions at the airline. 330 F/O of which there are 404 pays $15/hr less than DC9 Captain. If you are block holder on the DC9 you will do far better than reserve F/O on a WB.

If, as is suggested, there is a shift in emphasis to Intl, with augment crews, you may do alright financially as long as you don't mind spending your career sitting next to the guy who happened to plan on being born and hired at a better time than you did.

The number of positions could remain constant, but if there fewer numbers of Captains it is very significant. The entire career becomes watered down, unless you are now mid career Captain, WB Capt., or are within reach of being a WB Captain.

Some may say if the pay is there who cares? To many, flying Captain is important, and given the turmoil in this biz, not having the transportability (off shore or elsewhere) of major airline 121 PIC is huge.