Forecast for recalls, hiring, pension benefits if NPRM issued

[airfogey]

I agree with the gentleman above who said that a lot of the increased use of sick bank by those nearing 60 is to use it up cause you cant take it with you. I think it would be smart of companies to pay you what your sick bank is worth when you retire cause if you didn't use it you saved the company a lot of money--it would give you a good incentive to not use it unless you were really sick.
I see lots of frivoulous sick bank use by Gen X co-pilots who make sure they don't carry any extra--I guess in some ways they are just responding to the incentives.
The "Boomer" pilots who you say are greedy and profited from age 60 were preceded by the generation of pilots who fought the rule for over 20 years. The gentleman above who said that the "impact " at FED EX would be blunted by their new aircraft deliveries--thats the key-far more upgrades come from expansion--the US airliner fleet is five times bigger than it was in 1978-most "Boomer" upgrades came from this expansion.

Airfogey

 

[Phaedrus]

The impact may be blunted (I doubt it) for those at the bottom, but the Mega-Ball Lottery for those at the top will be full force. Congratulations.

 

[Falconjet]

Big talk big boy! You don't have the guts!

Well at least you come running in when you hear your name, just like a good dog.

Showing your true colors while the crickets chirp.


FJ

 

[SuperFLUF]

.......Flying should be fun!

And it is. But fun doesn't pay the bills.

All I ask is that the guys who will stay past 60 admit they will be costing the pilots junior to them money. Do the right thing and pay their fair share of any new costs they add as well as some sort of compromise to minimize lost pay and retirement plan value.

The time benefit of money invested can not be regained by "well thanks to us you can fly to 65 now too".

 

[FoxHunter]

Well at least you come running in when you hear your name, just like a good dog.

Showing your true colors while the crickets chirp.


FJ

Good luck son.:beer:

 

[michael707767]

The time benefit of money invested can not be regained by "well thanks to us you can fly to 65 now too".

This is the bottom line folks. For the younger crowd, the time value of money lost by lack of advancement at a younger age will never be made up by being able to fly five more years. Only those at the top right now will benefit from an increase in retirement age. The rest of us will suffer in total career earnings.

 

[humuakalaka]

Michael707767,

The time value of money for FO's caught in the age-60 debacle is THE critical issue.

I just ran some numbers. I assumed a 35-year old pilot with two years of longevity who anticipated a five-year upgrade (if age 60 stayed in place). At age 60, this pilot would have had approximately $3.9 million in the bank assuming a savings rate of 10% of gross pay as an FO and 15% as a CA at 12% interest each year. I used the pay scale at a popular major airline and for simplicity's sake, I used second year pay for both the FO and CA.

When age 65 comes into effect, and a five year delay in upgrade to captain is incurred, that same pilot will only have approximately $2.8 million in the bank when he turns 60. To me, that is a substantial difference and limits our ability to have the option to retire at age 60.

To retire at age 60 with the same amount of money ($3.9 million in this hypothetical case) that we would have had with a normal upgrade timeline, FO pay rates would need to be raised by well over 50% to compensate for the five year delayed upgrade.

This is a greater hit than I assumed.

Someone please check my math on this.

 

[PreContact]

2 Questions

1. What % of guys will actually stay to 65?
2. What happens to the B Funds if anything? Thanks

 

[PCL_128]

Where can I find this briefing.
Thanks

Are you a member of the Board of Directors?

 

[humuakalaka]

What % of guys will stay to 65?

Your guess is as good as anyone else's. However, you've got to assume that most of them will stay around. If you had the choice of holding onto a job that provided medical insurance for you and that you could call in sick for half the time, and would prevent you from dipping into your retirement fund, wouldn't you?

 

[spacecadet1]

Another unintended consequence if we go to 65: Suddenly a surplus of pilots. If management is smart they'll play hardball and extract more concessions. They'll try even harder to bust scope and offload more of the flying to the sudden surplus of willing pilots at the bottom.

 

[Gofish]

Another unintended consequence if we go to 65: Suddenly a surplus of pilots. If management is smart they'll play hardball and extract more concessions. They'll try even harder to bust scope and offload more of the flying to the sudden surplus of willing pilots at the bottom.

It matters little to me (Gen X) whether the rule passes or not. My concern is that the line be held on scope. There is a misconception amongst the boomers that younger pilots are willing to fly anything that is given to them by mainline scope but many of us would much rather see 70 plus at mainline, where it belongs.

I will look forward to flying with the age 65 crowd someday but please, hold the line on scope.

 

[redbook]

Good luck son.:beer:

Watch the karma.

Dad.

 

[Flopgut]

interesting observation. I have already heard several senior pilots at my airline say they plan on sticking around past 60 and sicking out of every other trip. They figure they will fly just enough to be able to hang on to 65 and then retire with SS and Medicare in hand. Whats the worst the company could do to them? If it ever looked like they were going to get into trouble they could stop sicking out for a while or just go ahead and retire.

Exactly. Getting five more years at the top of the game will be the easiest money they've ever made. No real discipline will have been required to obtain the reward. You can bet they will act foolishly with it.

"Old age and treachery will overcome youth and skill" was a sign on a wall of a particulirly harsh old coot I had to deal with for a while. I learned a lot form him, nothing good of course. These boomers would just as soon see flying end as a profession when they get done with it. They will ruin disability, steal away more retirement, push for age 70 and all other manner of detriments. That saying is really only valid in a seniority system. Get outside that and most old people can't cut it.

 

[Flopgut]

If it ever comes to having an airliner without pilots, what will you do then? They already replaced the engineer.

That's enough for now. Just an old-timers thoughts.

Flying should be fun!

See guys. Here's an old guy right here who's going to be delighted when there's no more flying jobs.