Forecast for recalls, hiring, pension benefits if NPRM issued

[BoilerUP]

I find it amusing that the baby boomers that are pushing the hardest for this change (the same ones that have benefitted THEIR WHOLE CAREER from Age 60) call people in my age group "the entitlement generation".

Yeah, I feel entitled to the same benefits to seniority you got from the retirement of pilots older than you...but guess myself and many others are going to be SOL because of your greed. Thanks...

 

[Andy]

interesting observation. I have already heard several senior pilots at my airline say they plan on sticking around past 60 and sicking out of every other trip. They figure they will fly just enough to be able to hang on to 65 and then retire with SS and Medicare in hand. Whats the worst the company could do to them? If it ever looked like they were going to get into trouble they could stop sicking out for a while or just go ahead and retire.

The increased sick leave usage will make every company's pilots less productive and end up costing all pilots in wages and benefits in future contracts.
If an individual pilot was concerned about the company causing them trouble, all that they would need to do is fail their class I.

 

[Duke of Ale]

My response has to begin someplace, so here goes.

To those that say you knew the age 60 rule when you hired on: rules change. They change in football, baseball, etc. The tax laws change. Drinking age changed over the years. Even alcohol was against the constitution at one time. Only land owners could vote at one time. Women could not vote. The age to start collecting Social Security has changed. Where's the uproar about all that?

As far as people that are already retired sueing to come back. The Administrator has stated that some laws need to be enacted to protect against that and various other possibilities.

Costs for health insurance, etc. I have been retired for quite some time and I have most of my health insurance paid for by the company from which I retired. I don't know how other carriers handle it but that is my situation. So they are still paying and I retired at 60.

Calling in sick in your last few years. It is done right now just to burn the sick time since when most retire, it is lost. Maybe some companies will wise up and cash out your sick bank when it comes time to retire to prevent such tactics.

If it ever comes to having an airliner without pilots, what will you do then? They already replaced the engineer.

That's enough for now. Just an old-timers thoughts.

Flying should be fun!

 

[gutshotdraw]

I can't be sure of the impacts of many of the areas of concern expressed here. However, I do believe that any worries about expenses to unions and airlines brought on by litigation over previous retirements are overblown. We all seem to agree now that the NPRM is coming from this Administrator. But I also predict there will be a concurrent piece of legislation introduced that will insulate all parties from litigation from those unlucky enough to have had a brithday at the wrong time.

 

[Ninerfan]

FDX Growth and Age 60

Albie,

I agree with most of what you said but I think growth/aircraft acquisitions at our company will blunt the impact somewhat.

 

[NuGuy]

I can't be sure of the impacts of many of the areas of concern expressed here. However, I do believe that any worries about expenses to unions and airlines brought on by litigation over previous retirements are overblown. We all seem to agree now that the NPRM is coming from this Administrator. But I also predict there will be a concurrent piece of legislation introduced that will insulate all parties from litigation from those unlucky enough to have had a brithday at the wrong time.

While I might agree that the NPRM might be forthcomming, I wouldn't count on the concurrent legislation to protect from those just over 60 to sue to get their jobs back. It's one of those things that you can see them going "oops, sorry, it just didn't make the cut".

The lawsuits from those over 60 have already been spooling up and waiting for the go word. You can BET cash money that a fair number of post 60 WILL come back, so not only will there be stagnation, but BACKWARDS movement as well.

Nu

 

[michael707767]

The increased sick leave usage will make every company's pilots less productive and end up costing all pilots in wages and benefits in future contracts.

I agree and its one reason among many that I am against raising the age.

 

[FoxHunter]

We will have leverage, but I doubt that we will have the collective will to carry it out.

IF the rule changes and one of the pilots has to be under 60, then the under 60 pilots simply need to have their own sickout. Over 60 Captain, the FO goes sick. Call in a reserve, they go sick. Repeat throughout the industry and maybe all the dumbazzes that think this is fair will figure out how bad they are screwing the under 60 people.

Doesn't need to be union endorsed or driven, just the under 60 pilots exercising their rights to call in sick just like the over 60 pilots will.

Can't wait to hear diccklicker chime in about how that is unfair and or illegal.

FJ

Big talk big boy! You don't have the guts!

 

[cesmaf]

Where can I find this briefing.
Thanks

" Captain Prater sent out a briefing to the BOD a few days ago that stated the FAA will be issuing an NPRM in the second half of this year. That process usually takes a little while, but expect some form of a change in the rule in '08.

 

[capt. megadeth]

The lawsuits from those over 60 have already been spooling up and waiting for the go word. You can BET cash money that a fair number of post 60 WILL come back, so not only will there be stagnation, but BACKWARDS movement as well.

Nu

I just don't see how this would hold any water. I mean, you retired when you had to retire and the rule changed after that. But then again, who would have thought a lawsuit spilling coffee on yourself would hold any water. We are all screwed!

 

[airfogey]

I agree with the gentleman above who said that a lot of the increased use of sick bank by those nearing 60 is to use it up cause you cant take it with you. I think it would be smart of companies to pay you what your sick bank is worth when you retire cause if you didn't use it you saved the company a lot of money--it would give you a good incentive to not use it unless you were really sick.
I see lots of frivoulous sick bank use by Gen X co-pilots who make sure they don't carry any extra--I guess in some ways they are just responding to the incentives.
The "Boomer" pilots who you say are greedy and profited from age 60 were preceded by the generation of pilots who fought the rule for over 20 years. The gentleman above who said that the "impact " at FED EX would be blunted by their new aircraft deliveries--thats the key-far more upgrades come from expansion--the US airliner fleet is five times bigger than it was in 1978-most "Boomer" upgrades came from this expansion.

Airfogey

 

[Phaedrus]

The impact may be blunted (I doubt it) for those at the bottom, but the Mega-Ball Lottery for those at the top will be full force. Congratulations.

 

[Falconjet]

Big talk big boy! You don't have the guts!

Well at least you come running in when you hear your name, just like a good dog.

Showing your true colors while the crickets chirp.


FJ

 

[SuperFLUF]

.......Flying should be fun!

And it is. But fun doesn't pay the bills.

All I ask is that the guys who will stay past 60 admit they will be costing the pilots junior to them money. Do the right thing and pay their fair share of any new costs they add as well as some sort of compromise to minimize lost pay and retirement plan value.

The time benefit of money invested can not be regained by "well thanks to us you can fly to 65 now too".

 

[FoxHunter]

Well at least you come running in when you hear your name, just like a good dog.

Showing your true colors while the crickets chirp.


FJ

Good luck son.:beer:

 

[michael707767]

The time benefit of money invested can not be regained by "well thanks to us you can fly to 65 now too".

This is the bottom line folks. For the younger crowd, the time value of money lost by lack of advancement at a younger age will never be made up by being able to fly five more years. Only those at the top right now will benefit from an increase in retirement age. The rest of us will suffer in total career earnings.

 

[humuakalaka]

Michael707767,

The time value of money for FO's caught in the age-60 debacle is THE critical issue.

I just ran some numbers. I assumed a 35-year old pilot with two years of longevity who anticipated a five-year upgrade (if age 60 stayed in place). At age 60, this pilot would have had approximately $3.9 million in the bank assuming a savings rate of 10% of gross pay as an FO and 15% as a CA at 12% interest each year. I used the pay scale at a popular major airline and for simplicity's sake, I used second year pay for both the FO and CA.

When age 65 comes into effect, and a five year delay in upgrade to captain is incurred, that same pilot will only have approximately $2.8 million in the bank when he turns 60. To me, that is a substantial difference and limits our ability to have the option to retire at age 60.

To retire at age 60 with the same amount of money ($3.9 million in this hypothetical case) that we would have had with a normal upgrade timeline, FO pay rates would need to be raised by well over 50% to compensate for the five year delayed upgrade.

This is a greater hit than I assumed.

Someone please check my math on this.

 

[PreContact]

2 Questions

1. What % of guys will actually stay to 65?
2. What happens to the B Funds if anything? Thanks

 

[PCL_128]

Where can I find this briefing.
Thanks

Are you a member of the Board of Directors?

 

[humuakalaka]

What % of guys will stay to 65?

Your guess is as good as anyone else's. However, you've got to assume that most of them will stay around. If you had the choice of holding onto a job that provided medical insurance for you and that you could call in sick for half the time, and would prevent you from dipping into your retirement fund, wouldn't you?