Forecast for recalls, hiring, pension benefits if NPRM issued

[KCPilot]

This is like air to air--a zero sum game. Someone will win, someone will lose. I hope I win. If I cannot, like a long defensive BFM engagement, my goal is a long, delayed, protracted implementation that removes as many over 60 guys as possible before it becomes law. Nothin' personal--its just business.

Ditto!

 

[trnsprt]

I have no problem with going to 65. Starting with everyone hired the day after the rule goes into effect. For the rest of us... we knew what we were getting when we signed on. Retire at 60. Personally it benefits me to see 65 happen. I am furloughed but would like more time to get things in order with my options before having to face a mandatory recall.

People can go on all day about how 9/11 was unexpected and whine about how the pensions were affected by lousy airline management. But it is no worse than the situation that so many were put in with the extended furloughs from this most recent recession. Deal with it.

As the old guys used to tell me when I was a new hire 1011/fe. You better have something to fall back on in this industry. I guess some of them should have listened to their own advice!

 

[PCL_128]

Guys, this NPRM isn't an "if" anymore, it's a "when." Captain Prater sent out a briefing to the BOD a few days ago that stated the FAA will be issuing an NPRM in the second half of this year. That process usually takes a little while, but expect some form of a change in the rule in '08.

 

[capt. megadeth]

The upgrade issue concerns me. I want to upgrade just as soon as possible. But that pales in comparison to what I believe will happen to the option to retire at 60. It will simply disappear, either contractually or realistically by making you take such a huge hit you won't be able to do it.
As for FO rate increases, I highly doubt it. Absolutely zero leverage.

Yep. I agree. Except for a few near 60 guys that will benefit, I am sure people will live to regret pushing for this change.

 

[michael707767]

Companies will have to budget for those seniors who hang around, dropping trips, burning those hundreds of thousands of hours of sick leave. ...

interesting observation. I have already heard several senior pilots at my airline say they plan on sticking around past 60 and sicking out of every other trip. They figure they will fly just enough to be able to hang on to 65 and then retire with SS and Medicare in hand. Whats the worst the company could do to them? If it ever looked like they were going to get into trouble they could stop sicking out for a while or just go ahead and retire.

 

[CF34-3B1]

interesting observation. I have already heard several senior pilots at my airline say they plan on sticking around past 60 and sicking out of every other trip. They figure they will fly just enough to be able to hang on to 65 and then retire with SS and Medicare in hand. Whats the worst the company could do to them? If it ever looked like they were going to get into trouble they could stop sicking out for a while or just go ahead and retire.

I've flown with several guys who have that exact same plan.

I think a lot of the old guys plan to semi retire at 60 or so and fly part time. (But at full time pay)

 

[thruthemurk]

Just curious as to whether this elderly sick out trend would be more than what already exists for pilots between 55-60?

 

[Falconjet]

Because they will be even older (5 years) than they are now and they already account for most of the sick time as it is.

FJ

 

[Falconjet]

The upgrade issue concerns me. I want to upgrade just as soon as possible. But that pales in comparison to what I believe will happen to the option to retire at 60. It will simply disappear, either contractually or realistically by making you take such a huge hit you won't be able to do it.
As for FO rate increases, I highly doubt it. Absolutely zero leverage.

We will have leverage, but I doubt that we will have the collective will to carry it out.

IF the rule changes and one of the pilots has to be under 60, then the under 60 pilots simply need to have their own sickout. Over 60 Captain, the FO goes sick. Call in a reserve, they go sick. Repeat throughout the industry and maybe all the dumbazzes that think this is fair will figure out how bad they are screwing the under 60 people.

Doesn't need to be union endorsed or driven, just the under 60 pilots exercising their rights to call in sick just like the over 60 pilots will.

Can't wait to hear diccklicker chime in about how that is unfair and or illegal.

FJ

 

[Andy]

This is like air to air--a zero sum game. Someone will win, someone will lose. I hope I win. If I cannot, like a long defensive BFM engagement, my goal is a long, delayed, protracted implementation that removes as many over 60 guys as possible before it becomes law. Nothin' personal--its just business.

It's a negative sum game, not zero sum. The net result will cost the entirety of the pilot group more than is gained by the few. The shift to the right of the pilot supply curve will result in lower wages for all pilots.