Forecast for recalls, hiring, pension benefits if NPRM issued

[CF34-3B1]

interesting observation. I have already heard several senior pilots at my airline say they plan on sticking around past 60 and sicking out of every other trip. They figure they will fly just enough to be able to hang on to 65 and then retire with SS and Medicare in hand. Whats the worst the company could do to them? If it ever looked like they were going to get into trouble they could stop sicking out for a while or just go ahead and retire.

I've flown with several guys who have that exact same plan.

I think a lot of the old guys plan to semi retire at 60 or so and fly part time. (But at full time pay)

 

[thruthemurk]

Just curious as to whether this elderly sick out trend would be more than what already exists for pilots between 55-60?

 

[Falconjet]

Because they will be even older (5 years) than they are now and they already account for most of the sick time as it is.

FJ

 

[Falconjet]

The upgrade issue concerns me. I want to upgrade just as soon as possible. But that pales in comparison to what I believe will happen to the option to retire at 60. It will simply disappear, either contractually or realistically by making you take such a huge hit you won't be able to do it.
As for FO rate increases, I highly doubt it. Absolutely zero leverage.

We will have leverage, but I doubt that we will have the collective will to carry it out.

IF the rule changes and one of the pilots has to be under 60, then the under 60 pilots simply need to have their own sickout. Over 60 Captain, the FO goes sick. Call in a reserve, they go sick. Repeat throughout the industry and maybe all the dumbazzes that think this is fair will figure out how bad they are screwing the under 60 people.

Doesn't need to be union endorsed or driven, just the under 60 pilots exercising their rights to call in sick just like the over 60 pilots will.

Can't wait to hear diccklicker chime in about how that is unfair and or illegal.

FJ

 

[Andy]

This is like air to air--a zero sum game. Someone will win, someone will lose. I hope I win. If I cannot, like a long defensive BFM engagement, my goal is a long, delayed, protracted implementation that removes as many over 60 guys as possible before it becomes law. Nothin' personal--its just business.

It's a negative sum game, not zero sum. The net result will cost the entirety of the pilot group more than is gained by the few. The shift to the right of the pilot supply curve will result in lower wages for all pilots.

 

[BoilerUP]

I find it amusing that the baby boomers that are pushing the hardest for this change (the same ones that have benefitted THEIR WHOLE CAREER from Age 60) call people in my age group "the entitlement generation".

Yeah, I feel entitled to the same benefits to seniority you got from the retirement of pilots older than you...but guess myself and many others are going to be SOL because of your greed. Thanks...

 

[Andy]

interesting observation. I have already heard several senior pilots at my airline say they plan on sticking around past 60 and sicking out of every other trip. They figure they will fly just enough to be able to hang on to 65 and then retire with SS and Medicare in hand. Whats the worst the company could do to them? If it ever looked like they were going to get into trouble they could stop sicking out for a while or just go ahead and retire.

The increased sick leave usage will make every company's pilots less productive and end up costing all pilots in wages and benefits in future contracts.
If an individual pilot was concerned about the company causing them trouble, all that they would need to do is fail their class I.

 

[Duke of Ale]

My response has to begin someplace, so here goes.

To those that say you knew the age 60 rule when you hired on: rules change. They change in football, baseball, etc. The tax laws change. Drinking age changed over the years. Even alcohol was against the constitution at one time. Only land owners could vote at one time. Women could not vote. The age to start collecting Social Security has changed. Where's the uproar about all that?

As far as people that are already retired sueing to come back. The Administrator has stated that some laws need to be enacted to protect against that and various other possibilities.

Costs for health insurance, etc. I have been retired for quite some time and I have most of my health insurance paid for by the company from which I retired. I don't know how other carriers handle it but that is my situation. So they are still paying and I retired at 60.

Calling in sick in your last few years. It is done right now just to burn the sick time since when most retire, it is lost. Maybe some companies will wise up and cash out your sick bank when it comes time to retire to prevent such tactics.

If it ever comes to having an airliner without pilots, what will you do then? They already replaced the engineer.

That's enough for now. Just an old-timers thoughts.

Flying should be fun!

 

[gutshotdraw]

I can't be sure of the impacts of many of the areas of concern expressed here. However, I do believe that any worries about expenses to unions and airlines brought on by litigation over previous retirements are overblown. We all seem to agree now that the NPRM is coming from this Administrator. But I also predict there will be a concurrent piece of legislation introduced that will insulate all parties from litigation from those unlucky enough to have had a brithday at the wrong time.

 

[Ninerfan]

FDX Growth and Age 60

Albie,

I agree with most of what you said but I think growth/aircraft acquisitions at our company will blunt the impact somewhat.

 

[NuGuy]

I can't be sure of the impacts of many of the areas of concern expressed here. However, I do believe that any worries about expenses to unions and airlines brought on by litigation over previous retirements are overblown. We all seem to agree now that the NPRM is coming from this Administrator. But I also predict there will be a concurrent piece of legislation introduced that will insulate all parties from litigation from those unlucky enough to have had a brithday at the wrong time.

While I might agree that the NPRM might be forthcomming, I wouldn't count on the concurrent legislation to protect from those just over 60 to sue to get their jobs back. It's one of those things that you can see them going "oops, sorry, it just didn't make the cut".

The lawsuits from those over 60 have already been spooling up and waiting for the go word. You can BET cash money that a fair number of post 60 WILL come back, so not only will there be stagnation, but BACKWARDS movement as well.

Nu

 

[michael707767]

The increased sick leave usage will make every company's pilots less productive and end up costing all pilots in wages and benefits in future contracts.

I agree and its one reason among many that I am against raising the age.

 

[FoxHunter]

We will have leverage, but I doubt that we will have the collective will to carry it out.

IF the rule changes and one of the pilots has to be under 60, then the under 60 pilots simply need to have their own sickout. Over 60 Captain, the FO goes sick. Call in a reserve, they go sick. Repeat throughout the industry and maybe all the dumbazzes that think this is fair will figure out how bad they are screwing the under 60 people.

Doesn't need to be union endorsed or driven, just the under 60 pilots exercising their rights to call in sick just like the over 60 pilots will.

Can't wait to hear diccklicker chime in about how that is unfair and or illegal.

FJ

Big talk big boy! You don't have the guts!

 

[cesmaf]

Where can I find this briefing.
Thanks

" Captain Prater sent out a briefing to the BOD a few days ago that stated the FAA will be issuing an NPRM in the second half of this year. That process usually takes a little while, but expect some form of a change in the rule in '08.

 

[capt. megadeth]

The lawsuits from those over 60 have already been spooling up and waiting for the go word. You can BET cash money that a fair number of post 60 WILL come back, so not only will there be stagnation, but BACKWARDS movement as well.

Nu

I just don't see how this would hold any water. I mean, you retired when you had to retire and the rule changed after that. But then again, who would have thought a lawsuit spilling coffee on yourself would hold any water. We are all screwed!