Forecast for recalls, hiring, pension benefits if NPRM issued

[spacecadet1]

Another unintended consequence if we go to 65: Suddenly a surplus of pilots. If management is smart they'll play hardball and extract more concessions. They'll try even harder to bust scope and offload more of the flying to the sudden surplus of willing pilots at the bottom.

 

[Gofish]

Another unintended consequence if we go to 65: Suddenly a surplus of pilots. If management is smart they'll play hardball and extract more concessions. They'll try even harder to bust scope and offload more of the flying to the sudden surplus of willing pilots at the bottom.

It matters little to me (Gen X) whether the rule passes or not. My concern is that the line be held on scope. There is a misconception amongst the boomers that younger pilots are willing to fly anything that is given to them by mainline scope but many of us would much rather see 70 plus at mainline, where it belongs.

I will look forward to flying with the age 65 crowd someday but please, hold the line on scope.

 

[redbook]

Good luck son.:beer:

Watch the karma.

Dad.

 

[Flopgut]

interesting observation. I have already heard several senior pilots at my airline say they plan on sticking around past 60 and sicking out of every other trip. They figure they will fly just enough to be able to hang on to 65 and then retire with SS and Medicare in hand. Whats the worst the company could do to them? If it ever looked like they were going to get into trouble they could stop sicking out for a while or just go ahead and retire.

Exactly. Getting five more years at the top of the game will be the easiest money they've ever made. No real discipline will have been required to obtain the reward. You can bet they will act foolishly with it.

"Old age and treachery will overcome youth and skill" was a sign on a wall of a particulirly harsh old coot I had to deal with for a while. I learned a lot form him, nothing good of course. These boomers would just as soon see flying end as a profession when they get done with it. They will ruin disability, steal away more retirement, push for age 70 and all other manner of detriments. That saying is really only valid in a seniority system. Get outside that and most old people can't cut it.

 

[Flopgut]

If it ever comes to having an airliner without pilots, what will you do then? They already replaced the engineer.

That's enough for now. Just an old-timers thoughts.

Flying should be fun!

See guys. Here's an old guy right here who's going to be delighted when there's no more flying jobs.

 

[StopNTSing]

The increased sick leave usage will make every company's pilots less productive and end up costing all pilots in wages and benefits in future contracts.
If an individual pilot was concerned about the company causing them trouble, all that they would need to do is fail their class I.

Ummm...I've heard all kinds of terrible consequences of those greedy old farts sticking around and calling in sick all the time. But wouldn't the most immediate effect be that the company would have to...gasp...hire MORE PILOTS?

 

[humuakalaka]

Ummm...I've heard all kinds of terrible consequences of those greedy old farts sticking around and calling in sick all the time. But wouldn't the most immediate effect be that the company would have to...gasp...hire MORE PILOTS?

That may be an eventual effect. I certainly wouldn't say it would be "the most immediate" result. Each new pilot hired has fixed costs that management prefers to avoid (medical insurance, training, etc). I'm sure management would opt first to find ways to make existing pilots work more to cover the slack created by the old guys. This could cause the quality of life for the younger guys to take a hit (in addition to the hit on your career earnings). And if your company is forced to...gasp...hire more pilots, it simply leaves your company (SWA, I'm guessing) more vulnerable to upstart LCC's with younger pilot forces (Virgin America, JetBlue, AirTran) by causing pilot productivity to slip at your company relative to the others.

 

[dtfl]

We will have leverage, but I doubt that we will have the collective will to carry it out.

IF the rule changes and one of the pilots has to be under 60, then the under 60 pilots simply need to have their own sickout. Over 60 Captain, the FO goes sick. Call in a reserve, they go sick. Repeat throughout the industry and maybe all the dumbazzes that think this is fair will figure out how bad they are screwing the under 60 people.

Doesn't need to be union endorsed or driven, just the under 60 pilots exercising their rights to call in sick just like the over 60 pilots will.

Can't wait to hear diccklicker chime in about how that is unfair and or illegal.

FJ

..and how much extra is this scenario going to cost as far as scheduling is concerned? With PBS you have to hire folks to write new software toaccount for over 60/under 60 pilots flying together...and for non-pbs folks..more schedulers. Cost the run an op just went up...regardless of the sick-outs.

 

[Flopgut]

Something to consider....

2 Questions

1. What % of guys will actually stay to 65?
2. What happens to the B Funds if anything? Thanks

The pilots that go ahead and retire at 60 made a plan, stuck to it, and made it work. They will be gone. The pilots that want to stay are largely broke, will always be broke, have made inadequate retirement plans, resent youth and laud their seniority over all others like it is their personal space. A-hole airline pilot per capita is going to spike big time!

That percentage that stays, is going to make our working lives difficult. (they'll make it difficult for everyone)

 

[Freight Dog]

Here's what I see happening if this thing happens:

1) Pay will stagnate because "you get to work 5 more years!"

2) DC plans will come under attack by the management because we "won't need as much contribution because we get to work 5 more years than planned." You will also get penalized significantly if you retire at 60, just like you do right now if you retire at 55.

3) Seniority concept will get compromised. Over 60/under 60 in the cockpit? How do you build the schedules?

4) Unless you work for SWA, you'll see even more stagnation.

5) You will see less hiring because most managements can't plan staffing to save their lives. You'll see these over 60 bozos start abusing sick leave left and right, but that in and of itself won't be enough to hire.

6) You will see discrimination lawsuits by the recently-retired crowd suing to allow them back too at their old seniority which would have the negative impact on your seniority.


Yeah, this is a great idea! Whatever....

 

[Flopgut]

I'll take you one step further Frieght Dog:

Could be the end of ALPA. This is obviously a litigious bunch that want this age changed. Don't expect them to accept a simple change and be happy. They are going to sue on behalf of a huge class of retirees and they will direct those suits largely at our union. (companies and gov't can probably be sheltered) They won't have any intention of going back to work, really they just want the money. In fact the lawsuits will last beyond many of this groups' 65th b-days. It will start with assesments just for the legal fees, then progress to being assesed to pay for earnings they will claim to have lost. It's a bottomless pit.

 

[Freight Dog]

Unless the law is passed to protect the companies, government as well as our unions....

Implementation of chaning this rule would be way more hassle than it's worth. It's simpler just to ban over 60 foreign airline pilots from flying in U.S. airspace and you take away their chief argument.

 

[FoxHunter]

From the Latest FDX ALPA Message Line

Comments released by Capt. Prater:



"I met with FAA Administrator Marion Blakey during the first week of the new year. One of the items that Administrator Blakey raised was the Age 60 Rule. She advised me that the FAA will put the current Age 60 Rule into the internal rulemaking process at the FAA, which will result in a Notice of Proposed Rule Making (NPRM) sometime during the second half of this year.

At this time, I have put together an internal working group to plan how the Association will deal with the NPRM. I can tell you this much - we will deal with it, we will include our governing bodies and line pilots, and we will, to the best of our ability, keep Age 60 from continuing to be a wedge issue within our membership.

 

[BoilerUP]

At this time, I have put together an internal working group to plan how the Association will deal with the NPRM. I can tell you this much - we will deal with it, we will include our governing bodies and line pilots, and we will, to the best of our ability, keep Age 60 from continuing to be a wedge issue within our membership.

Prepare for that attempt to fail miserably.

 

[ABXbooger]

Is ALPA going to have a bridge program for the over -60 people sponsored by AARP?

​

 

[LJ45]

As a person who just interview with SWA and trying to educate myself on this subject more...anyone with the FACTS of how this age change went about in other countries? Phase in? problems? etc.. No opinions, just the FACTS please !
Thanks.

 

[Flopgut]

FACT: I does not matter how it went through in other countries. Period. It's going to mess this one up pretty good. There are only slightly more people who want to get hired by SWA as there are that will want to return to SWA! Problem: SWA wants to let them back.

I wish you the best of luck. Your timing stinks but would be much worse if you were talking about another carrier. They will probably still need to hire you, it's just going to slow down.

 

[gutshotdraw]

While I might agree that the NPRM might be forthcomming, I wouldn't count on the concurrent legislation to protect from those just over 60 to sue to get their jobs back. It's one of those things that you can see them going "oops, sorry, it just didn't make the cut".

The lawsuits from those over 60 have already been spooling up and waiting for the go word. You can BET cash money that a fair number of post 60 WILL come back, so not only will there be stagnation, but BACKWARDS movement as well.

Nu

If a piece of legislation is introduced that shields a government agency (FAA in this case) from litigation, you dang skippy it'll get passed.

 

[Tejas-Jet]

Just curious as to whether this elderly sick out trend would be more than what already exists for pilots between 55-60?

I wouldn't call in sick....but would put most of my trips in "give-away."

 

[RyansDad]

Why would swa want to bring back guys that are already gone? They are at the top of the pay scale, no longer current, and wouldnt that mean guys would move back to the right seat if a whole lot of captains came back? Im not sure how many guys have retired from swa in the last 4yrs but im sure the training event would be a mess....How long is it now for upgrade? last i heard you guys were looking at hiring 650 this yr...Im sure that number will change significantly in the not too distant future if this whole thing comes to be