[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif] Sup W[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]III. Employment Opportunities at AA for AMR Eagle, Inc. Pilots[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]D. If a CJ Captain is placed on the AA Pilots Seniority List per III.B. above, such[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]CJ Captain will receive priority based on his AA seniority in filling a [/FONT][FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]new hire[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]position in the next new hire class, following release from a training freeze or[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]other AMR Eagle, Inc. imposed operational constraint.[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Depending upon who you talk to Sup W expires either May of 2007 or May of 2008.[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]From the contract[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]'VII. Duration[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A. This Supplemental Agreement shall be effective on signing and shall continue in full force and effect through the later of:[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]1. The amendable date of the next ensuing Basic Agreement between AA and APA.[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]2. Ten (10) years from the date of signing of this Supplemental Agreement, at which time this Supplemental Agreement shall become null, void and of no further force and effect.'[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]If you read number 1, then the next amendable date become May of 2007 because AA decided to open up contract negotiations early on May of 2006. If they had waited until the normal date of May 2007 then Sup W would have expired on May of 2008, which is when most folks seem to think it still think it is set to expire.[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]IMHO, it's a moot point because their is no way that AA get through the 2,800 furloughed pilots before either date. Which equates to no new hires before SUp W expires, which equate to no more flow throughs. [/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]If you listen to the latest rumors AA would like to ramp up recalls to 40 within 6 months. So for arguments sake lets say that 66% decide to accept recalls. 2800 x 66% = 1848. I know the numbers for the first group are significantly lower but these folks are the ones that took the "furlough instead" because they all had something better to do, so it can be expected that they will not come back until they have too. As numbers get closer to the bottom of the list percentages traditionally get higher.[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Back to the math. 10 a month for the next 3 months, then 20 a month for months 4-6, from then on out 40 a month. [/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]That's 330 for 2007 and then 480 a year until furloughs are exhausted. If 66% accept the recalls then it will take until 4 years or Jan of 2011. If 50% of the then 1400 pilots or the you are looking at 3 years or Jan of 2010 before AA needs to start hiring off the street. Either way Sup W has long since expired. [/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Again IMHO, the Eagle pilots would just be wasting their time if they were waiting around until 2010 or 2011 just to try and get a number at AA, those guys are Sr enough with enough PIC time to be more then competitive today at SWA, UPS, FedEx or CAL. AA is not worth the wait.[/FONT]