Why United Airlines will fail again

[Andy]

Really a pathetic and arrogant display and attitudes shown to fellow airport and airline employees.

Yep, UAL has its share of skeletons in the closet.
Thanks for the education.

 

[Boeingman]

Yep, UAL has its share of skeletons in the closet.
Thanks for the education.

No problem. I'm sure most of these zeros are gone now. I had a very productive PM exchange with UAL78 a few months back, opened up a lot of common ground and healed a few wounds on my part.

 

[Sonny Crockett]

No problem. I'm sure most of these zeros are gone now. I had a very productive PM exchange with UAL78 a few months back, opened up a lot of common ground and healed a few wounds on my part.

Still aint feeling the love, but I bet we will be talking merger in a few months with CAL.

 

[Boeingman]

Still aint feeling the love, but I bet we will be talking merger in a few months with CAL.

Depends on what shakes out with NWA & DAL. If either of them liquidates and my guess is one will, I don't think so. If there is a breakup of either carrier and someone goes on a spending spree or merger then yes, it will probably happen.

These mergers are not for the economic health or long term prospects for either company. They are soley to enrich the lawyers, investment bankers, management and any other elitist vermin that will enjoy a handsome payout.

 

[Dizel8]

Depends on what shakes out with NWA & DAL. If either of them liquidates and my guess is one will, I don't think so. .

I doubt NWA or DAL will disappear, sounds like the thoughts they had about UAL.

 

[Andy]

I doubt NWA or DAL will disappear, sounds like the thoughts they had about UAL.

Concur; I expect both to survive.

 

[Boeingman]

I doubt NWA or DAL will disappear, sounds like the thoughts they had about UAL.

Just for clarification I qualified that with an "if". Different ball game though between United Delta and Northwest. United filed before they were leveraged to the hilt which NWA and DAL find themselves in today. One reason United has been able to secure funding is the ability to borrow on assets. Delta and Northwest have little left to borrow against. Thrown in a combination poisonous labor relations at NWA the liquidation scenario there is not far fetched.

Even Tilton is now admiting United was perilously close to Chapter 7 with the employees bending over several times with labor relations not even close to what is occuring now. Plus, they filed early and was able to protect their assets.

 

[enigma]

After reading this string, I think I'll just walk away if Spirit ever goes down. Why stay in an industry in which everyone holds lifelong grudges based upon flawed reasoning?

Peace people, don't forget who the adversary truly is

enigma

 

[Andy]

Just for clarification I qualified that with an "if". Different ball game though between United Delta and Northwest. United filed before they were leveraged to the hilt which NWA and DAL find themselves in today. One reason United has been able to secure funding is the ability to borrow on assets. Delta and Northwest have little left to borrow against. Thrown in a combination poisonous labor relations at NWA the liquidation scenario there is not far fetched.

Even Tilton is now admiting United was perilously close to Chapter 7 with the employees bending over several times with labor relations not even close to what is occuring now. Plus, they filed early and was able to protect their assets.

NWA did not require DIP financing because they filed with more than enough cash on hand to carry them through the bulk of chap 11. I don't know how leveraged they are, but DAL was the one that I was more concerned about. But DAL looks like they're able to line up DIP financing, so they'll probably be OK.
You're definitely right about labor relations at NWA. It ain't pretty.
I haven't followed NWA & DAL too closely; after just living through that nightmare of a TV show, I have no desire to watch the reruns.

I think that most pilots at UAL were aware of how close that UAL was to going chap 7. SARS pushed UAL to the brink. Pacific loads were anemic. C2003 passed because of how close UAL was to going under.
I'll give Tilton credit for filing early with unencumbered assets. Many don't understand how important that was for UAL's survival, because UAL couldn't find a loan on those assets for any decent rates outside of chap 11.

 

[G4G5]

I was reading a copy of the WSJ this morning with my morning coffee when I noticed Dave Neelemans statement about fuel prices

Neeleman said Jetblue can expect to pay $1.98 per gallon in 2006. This is also be verified in their 2/1/06 SEC8K filing

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1158463/000095013606000623/file002.htm

This is what UAL had to say.

On Jan 27, 2006 from UAL's 8K filing
The company expects mainline fuel price for the first quarter to average $1.92 per gallon, and for the full-year to average $1.81 per gallon (including taxes). Currently the company has no hedges in place for 2006.

Average mainline fuel price for the quarter (Q405) was $2.09 per gallon (including taxes).

http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/showFiling.go?name=UAL%20CORP%20/DE/:%208-K,%20Sub-Doc%203&link=http%3A//quotemedia.10kwizard.com/filing.xml%3Frepo%3Dtenk%26ipage%3D3916596%26doc%3D3&type=TEXT

This is the one I love
From UAL's 8K on Jan 17, 2006

United assumes a long-term crude oil price of $50 per barrel for 2006 to 2010, or an equivalent of jet fuel price of $1.48 per gallon (before hedging expenses). So
http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/showFiling.go?name=UAL%20CORP%20/DE/:%208-K,%20Sub-Doc%202,%20Page%2029&link=http%3A//quotemedia.10kwizard.com/filing.xml%3Frepo%3Dtenk%26ipage%3D3895033%26doc%3D2%26num%3D29

Neelman feels fuel will be $1.98 and has told the street that this is his number for 2006. Yet Tilton seems to feel that will be 17 cents less or $1.81 per gallon. Keep in mind that UAL has NO FUEL HEDGES and Jetblue has some.

So where does Tilton get his numbers from and if I were bring out a compnay from CH11 wouldn't you at least want to use the more conservate information.

What I really love is the $1.48 per gallon price (or $50 a barrel) over the next 4 years. Let's see with current fuel prices where they are, UAL averaged $2.09 per gallon last quater. What did UAL predict for the first quater of 06, $1.92 per gallon. Where is this guy pulling his numbers out of?

Tilton says he needs fuel to be $1.48 over the next 4 years. If you use Neelmans number of $1.98 for they year. Next years fuel would have to be $.98 cents just to say on track.

Even if we use Tiltons $1.81 for 2006 he needs $1.15 per gallon for all of 2007 just to stay on track.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

I'll give Tilton credit for filing early with unencumbered assets. Many don't understand how important that was for UAL's survival, because UAL couldn't find a loan on those assets for any decent rates outside of chap 11.

With DAL more leveraged, do you think they are more likely to fail after coming out of BK? I'm thinking the debt burden will kill their CASM.

Maybe they will be like USAir, in need of a partner. I'm thinking NWA, CAL or UAL will be the strong partner with any merger for DAL.

Maybe the new USAir will merge with DAL.

 

[Reebo]

I was in Airbus training in the summer of 2001, and the guy next to me was also in a class at UAL (to this day, I don't know who he was and don't care). He yelled in the phone so loud at his wife that it was easy for me to hear his side of the conversations. In a nutshell, this guy was building a $1.5 million house for his bride, and had bid up to the largest equipment he could (ie bottom reserve pilot) so that they could afford it. She wanted $10K to go to Europe for the summer while he was in training. After a few days of this, the noise in the next room finally subsided; he caved. I wonder who she's sucking blood from nowadays.

Sounds like the couple who was on Oprah