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Who will hire first? UAL or AA
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The big question is how will furlough 1st???
Jetjockey
Stay thirsty my friends
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Wrong side of the cycle. It goes like this: Hire until you furlough, then furlough until you hire. We are entering the hire phase starting with recalls. Hurry, get your seat before the music ends..............
satpak77
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AA. CAL and UAL have post-merger issues to contend with before off the street hiring can begin.
AA's pilot staffing are older folks and my sources tell me it is taking about 10 calls to the furloughees before they get one returnee pilot.
With 1890 listed as furloughed, that means 189 are coming back. Double it and approx 400 are coming back. Big whoop. They have 8000+ pilots many of whom are 55+. I also heard (prob not just isolated to AA) that many of the older guys are being medicaled out.
I want to say that AA had some big hiring booms in the 80's with the 767/757 acquisitions and the Super 80 orders. 1985 was 25 years ago. If the average age back then was 30 years old, that guy is now 55.
Of course I will be off on the time and math a little, but you get the idea. I seem to recall that AA purposely hired young bucks back then, along with their NASA medical form and family tree (does anyone remember that).
That mentality is biting them now.
AA's pilot staffing are older folks and my sources tell me it is taking about 10 calls to the furloughees before they get one returnee pilot.
With 1890 listed as furloughed, that means 189 are coming back. Double it and approx 400 are coming back. Big whoop. They have 8000+ pilots many of whom are 55+. I also heard (prob not just isolated to AA) that many of the older guys are being medicaled out.
I want to say that AA had some big hiring booms in the 80's with the 767/757 acquisitions and the Super 80 orders. 1985 was 25 years ago. If the average age back then was 30 years old, that guy is now 55.
Of course I will be off on the time and math a little, but you get the idea. I seem to recall that AA purposely hired young bucks back then, along with their NASA medical form and family tree (does anyone remember that).
That mentality is biting them now.
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rattler
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My best guess is AA. They are now 3rd in terms of size and are feeling the pressure as corporate customers flock to DAL and UAL that offer much larger route structures through Sky Team and Star Alliance. AA will either be forced to merge or grow aggressively to remain competitive.
Alot at UAL depends on the scope arbitration. If ALPA wins, and and a new JCBA is ratified, I expect the remaining furloughs to be recalled quickly and hiring to resume. If ALPA looses there will be many years of stagnation as the airline shrinks from attrition.
Alot at UAL depends on the scope arbitration. If ALPA wins, and and a new JCBA is ratified, I expect the remaining furloughs to be recalled quickly and hiring to resume. If ALPA looses there will be many years of stagnation as the airline shrinks from attrition.
The bigger question is who might get to strike first?
AA717driver
A simpler time...
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They see it working at UAL and want to join the party. If UAL/CAL loose scope, they will furlough.
LAHSOinMIA
Active member
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UAL isn't going to furlough...
True...EXCEPT for the pesky one year no furlough clause CAL had under "merger protection" in it's contract. Also I heard ALPA made it even better as part of the TPA document they signed after the merger was announced.
Staffing must increase. Consider the following...
1) FAA rest rules are changing
2) Two 60+ guys cannot fly together w/o a "youngster" on intl. flights
3) Two man crews cannot both be 60+
4) The 787 has been delayed AGAIN (initial 787 cadre may just be pay protected at this point due to shrinking ROI on initial training investment)
5) Most of the 60+ captains at CAL are sitting on 600hrs +/- in their sick bank (120K) due to the prior need for bridge medical with only two years left to use it up.
6) The introduction of any new aircraft always triggers a "surge" in staffing to cover the training cycles.
7) Age 65 retirement is less than two years away.
8) 100% block hour protection at CAL for the flying that existed upon the date of merger announcement. (this provision ends upon JCBA and SLI completion)
Staffing will increase at the new UAL.
True...EXCEPT for the pesky one year no furlough clause CAL had under "merger protection" in it's contract. Also I heard ALPA made it even better as part of the TPA document they signed after the merger was announced.
Staffing must increase. Consider the following...
1) FAA rest rules are changing
2) Two 60+ guys cannot fly together w/o a "youngster" on intl. flights
3) Two man crews cannot both be 60+
4) The 787 has been delayed AGAIN (initial 787 cadre may just be pay protected at this point due to shrinking ROI on initial training investment)
5) Most of the 60+ captains at CAL are sitting on 600hrs +/- in their sick bank (120K) due to the prior need for bridge medical with only two years left to use it up.
6) The introduction of any new aircraft always triggers a "surge" in staffing to cover the training cycles.
7) Age 65 retirement is less than two years away.
8) 100% block hour protection at CAL for the flying that existed upon the date of merger announcement. (this provision ends upon JCBA and SLI completion)
Staffing will increase at the new UAL.
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Phrogs4ever
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Yes, but the system bids reflect staffing requirements over the next twelve months. Retirements will first be accounted for on the January 2012 bid, and if we have another 787 special bid (18 month forecast staffing) it will be reflected on the August 2011 bid. That, my friend, is only eight months away.
What does that have to do with anything? I betcha the company hopes that happens otherwise they are on the hook for more money to put into their pension fund.
contrail67
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JFReservist
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I heard the same thing yesterday from one of my AA buds. He said the company is not ready for this staffing-wise, but starting to preparing for the possibility with the call backs. Also heard from another that there is considerable momentum behind the 773ER order and 100 seat jet order rumors, and that if the new rest rules are implemented, the company will be forced to hire off the street for both.
Here's to the rumors, 'tis the season for believin' !!!
I've heard that it's closer to 8:1 on the call backs and then when you add in all of the Eagle guys, even if you are running a class of 30 a month that's still almost 2 years. The big unknown is the APA contract negotiated recall rights. Once AA goes through all the Eagle recalls and the 1900 pilots still on furlough the company is now required to start at the bottom of the list and start recalling in reverse order.
Why come back on the first call unless you really need the job? The reason why no one is coming back is that the AA pilots are still operating under the 2003 contract?
After the second call an AA pilot that by passes recall still has the right to hold off his/her recall an additional 3 years at that point they can call the company and tell them that they want back on the list.
Anyone with any other option is going to wait until the contract is sorted out before returning.
You want to see recall rates improve from 10:1 or 8:1, get a descent new contract, then recall rates could come down to the 1:1 ratio (assuming all the folks who previously bypassed) very quickly.
My guess is that UAL will be hiring long before AA does.
AA717driver
A simpler time...
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It has to do with knowing what you're talking about.
AA's retirement is based loosely on the market. Retirements went from a decent number to ZE-frickin'-RO in the Fall of '08. 2+2...
The 777 left seat will be a ghost town if the market hits 12k.
TC
pilotgolfer
Well-known member
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The market is not that far from 12K. It only takes another 5% move to get there. I think you need to see about a 20% upward move to persuade someone to cut and run. That would be DOW 13700.
Sure wont be UAL, they just annouced that they are cutting cutting capacity in Q1, by 1.8 - 2.0%, while everyone, is gonna add 2 - 3%.
WOOOHOOOO we become the worlds largest airline, now lets start shrinking it! The srticle did not address whether it is due to outsourcing or mainline cuts. Big hit in DEN, there you go SWA have at it, you deserve it, since UAL management cant find their way out of a wet paper sack!!! Even with new management UAL is still using Titties play book, to become the worlds first virtual airline!!!
WOOOHOOOO we become the worlds largest airline, now lets start shrinking it! The srticle did not address whether it is due to outsourcing or mainline cuts. Big hit in DEN, there you go SWA have at it, you deserve it, since UAL management cant find their way out of a wet paper sack!!! Even with new management UAL is still using Titties play book, to become the worlds first virtual airline!!!
please explain. that is a serious question. While pensions invest in both stocks and bonds, normally payout issues are tied to bond rates and not the stock market. I know lump sum payouts are normally based on interest rates, that bottomed out a long time ago, the best time to retire. If the stock market goes to 5000, without dumping the pension plan and assuming the pension plan is losing money because of the falling stock market, the company would be required to put more cash into pension fund to cover the liabilities. If the market goes to 50k, most likely assets within the plan would go up requiring less cash to be put into the plan by the company to cover future liabilities.
If i got it wrong i would love to know where just so i don't keep spouting of incorrect info.
whatitdoing?
Are you awake? Good
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If we lose the scope arbitration, we'll furlough. No doubt about it. It might not come for a year or two, but it's on the horizon. I'll be sending out the resume shortly after, if we lose. If not, I'll be packing money away for our impending strike. It sucks to be at the new United right now. Thanks Glenn Smisek...............
AA717driver
A simpler time...
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The AA "A-fund" is a simple Final Average Earnings computation based on the best year of the last five years times some multiple and a conversion to a lump sum, if that's what you choose.
The B fund is, as far as I can tell from the charts, 100% in equities.
AMR "purchases" units in the B-fund for us each month based on pay. The unit value in 2007 was $114.XX. The current unit value is $87.XX.
The problem lies in that, when most people were hired at AA, they were told they would retire with $3 million lump. (Or, they were led to believe that by those senior to them.) That "$3 million" has turned into $1.5 even for those with what most would consider a "golden career".
If the B fund unit value gets back up to $100, at least they are looking to be in the $2 million range and that's do able.
AA is not what most people would consider "a fun place to work". So, even guys at the top of their profession (777/767 Capt.'s) aren't having a rockin' good time on trips. That removes an intangible enticement to continue working. What's left? Mo' money.
I'm sure more than a few are hanging around waiting for either the market to come back or the new contract to start paying big bucks again. But, people smarter than me have proven on the union message board that, even by not drawing on their retirement and continuing to bring in $200k/year flying the 777 they are ultimately losing money.
Sorry if I sounded snippy in my original post. This gets kind of Byzantine even when you work at AA, let alone if you don't.
TC
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