Who will hire first? UAL or AA

[airgator]

Any takers?

 

[100 c.i.]

Any takers?

The big question is how will furlough 1st???

 

[Jetjockey]

The big question is how will furlough 1st???

Wrong side of the cycle. It goes like this: Hire until you furlough, then furlough until you hire. We are entering the hire phase starting with recalls. Hurry, get your seat before the music ends..............

 

[Bigoober]

Do you consider the "recall" of old UA pilots to CAL as new hires or recalls?

 

[satpak77]

AA. CAL and UAL have post-merger issues to contend with before off the street hiring can begin.

AA's pilot staffing are older folks and my sources tell me it is taking about 10 calls to the furloughees before they get one returnee pilot.

With 1890 listed as furloughed, that means 189 are coming back. Double it and approx 400 are coming back. Big whoop. They have 8000+ pilots many of whom are 55+. I also heard (prob not just isolated to AA) that many of the older guys are being medicaled out.

I want to say that AA had some big hiring booms in the 80's with the 767/757 acquisitions and the Super 80 orders. 1985 was 25 years ago. If the average age back then was 30 years old, that guy is now 55.

Of course I will be off on the time and math a little, but you get the idea. I seem to recall that AA purposely hired young bucks back then, along with their NASA medical form and family tree (does anyone remember that).

That mentality is biting them now.

 

[atpcliff]

UAL, via CAL, will hire first.

Just found out about LAN's massive expansion plans starting next year, and already they can not get enough pilots, not to mention next year. Hopefully, they will start increasing the T&Cs.

cliff
MIA

 

[satpak77]

interesting. I suppose lets hope they all start hiring !

 

[rattler]

My best guess is AA. They are now 3rd in terms of size and are feeling the pressure as corporate customers flock to DAL and UAL that offer much larger route structures through Sky Team and Star Alliance. AA will either be forced to merge or grow aggressively to remain competitive.

Alot at UAL depends on the scope arbitration. If ALPA wins, and and a new JCBA is ratified, I expect the remaining furloughs to be recalled quickly and hiring to resume. If ALPA looses there will be many years of stagnation as the airline shrinks from attrition.

 

[Flopgut]

The big question is how will furlough 1st???

The bigger question is who might get to strike first?

 

[Fishpaw]

Will either ever raise 1st yr pay above the 30 something $/hr range?