Who will hire first? UAL or AA

[airgator]

Any takers?

 

[100 c.i.]

Any takers?

The big question is how will furlough 1st???

 

[Jetjockey]

The big question is how will furlough 1st???

Wrong side of the cycle. It goes like this: Hire until you furlough, then furlough until you hire. We are entering the hire phase starting with recalls. Hurry, get your seat before the music ends..............

 

[Bigoober]

Do you consider the "recall" of old UA pilots to CAL as new hires or recalls?

 

[satpak77]

AA. CAL and UAL have post-merger issues to contend with before off the street hiring can begin.

AA's pilot staffing are older folks and my sources tell me it is taking about 10 calls to the furloughees before they get one returnee pilot.

With 1890 listed as furloughed, that means 189 are coming back. Double it and approx 400 are coming back. Big whoop. They have 8000+ pilots many of whom are 55+. I also heard (prob not just isolated to AA) that many of the older guys are being medicaled out.

I want to say that AA had some big hiring booms in the 80's with the 767/757 acquisitions and the Super 80 orders. 1985 was 25 years ago. If the average age back then was 30 years old, that guy is now 55.

Of course I will be off on the time and math a little, but you get the idea. I seem to recall that AA purposely hired young bucks back then, along with their NASA medical form and family tree (does anyone remember that).

That mentality is biting them now.

 

[atpcliff]

UAL, via CAL, will hire first.

Just found out about LAN's massive expansion plans starting next year, and already they can not get enough pilots, not to mention next year. Hopefully, they will start increasing the T&Cs.

cliff
MIA

 

[satpak77]

interesting. I suppose lets hope they all start hiring !

 

[rattler]

My best guess is AA. They are now 3rd in terms of size and are feeling the pressure as corporate customers flock to DAL and UAL that offer much larger route structures through Sky Team and Star Alliance. AA will either be forced to merge or grow aggressively to remain competitive.

Alot at UAL depends on the scope arbitration. If ALPA wins, and and a new JCBA is ratified, I expect the remaining furloughs to be recalled quickly and hiring to resume. If ALPA looses there will be many years of stagnation as the airline shrinks from attrition.

 

[Flopgut]

The big question is how will furlough 1st???

The bigger question is who might get to strike first?

 

[Fishpaw]

Will either ever raise 1st yr pay above the 30 something $/hr range?

 

[AA717driver]

Will either ever raise 1st yr pay above the 30 something $/hr range?

Not as long as they have plenty of people who show up for the class.

TC

 

[Draginass]

AA is only going to grow through code share and virtual mergers like JBVs. These guys want to run a travel agency, not an airline.

 

[bluefin]

AA is only going to grow through code share and virtual mergers like JBVs. These guys want to run a travel agency, not an airline.

They see it working at UAL and want to join the party. If UAL/CAL loose scope, they will furlough.

 

[LAHSOinMIA]

UAL isn't going to furlough...

If UAL/CAL loose scope, they will furlough.

True...EXCEPT for the pesky one year no furlough clause CAL had under "merger protection" in it's contract. Also I heard ALPA made it even better as part of the TPA document they signed after the merger was announced.

Staffing must increase. Consider the following...

1) FAA rest rules are changing
2) Two 60+ guys cannot fly together w/o a "youngster" on intl. flights
3) Two man crews cannot both be 60+
4) The 787 has been delayed AGAIN (initial 787 cadre may just be pay protected at this point due to shrinking ROI on initial training investment)
5) Most of the 60+ captains at CAL are sitting on 600hrs +/- in their sick bank (120K) due to the prior need for bridge medical with only two years left to use it up.
6) The introduction of any new aircraft always triggers a "surge" in staffing to cover the training cycles.
7) Age 65 retirement is less than two years away.
8) 100% block hour protection at CAL for the flying that existed upon the date of merger announcement. (this provision ends upon JCBA and SLI completion)

Staffing will increase at the new UAL.

 

[bluefin]

Yes, but the one year "no furlough clause" will expire. Unless scope is kept, they will furlough. Why expand mainline when you can outsource to the lowest bidder. Age 65 is two years away, thats two years too long for me!!

 

[Phrogs4ever]

Age 65 is two years away, thats two years too long for me!!

Yes, but the system bids reflect staffing requirements over the next twelve months. Retirements will first be accounted for on the January 2012 bid, and if we have another 787 special bid (18 month forecast staffing) it will be reflected on the August 2011 bid. That, my friend, is only eight months away.

 

[Dubya]

The second the market cracks 12000 again, 600-800 AA guys are out like the fat kid in dodge ball.

 

[bizicmo]

The second the market cracks 12000 again, 600-800 AA guys are out like the fat kid in dodge ball.

What does that have to do with anything? I betcha the company hopes that happens otherwise they are on the hook for more money to put into their pension fund.

 

[contrail67]

Don't ever plan on an educated guess on this board.

 

[JFReservist]

The second the market cracks 12000 again, 600-800 AA guys are out like the fat kid in dodge ball.

I heard the same thing yesterday from one of my AA buds. He said the company is not ready for this staffing-wise, but starting to preparing for the possibility with the call backs. Also heard from another that there is considerable momentum behind the 773ER order and 100 seat jet order rumors, and that if the new rest rules are implemented, the company will be forced to hire off the street for both.

Here's to the rumors, 'tis the season for believin' !!!