What will Republic do with their big C-Series CS300 Order?

[jonjuan]

Main line pilots don't have to give up scope, but they will if the price is right.

Bingo......

 

[Jon Rivoli]

What percentage of Delta pax connect on a SKYW flight every day? Twenty? Twenty five?

Comair"s strike cost Delta $1 BILLION per month and that was only KCVG. The loss of SKYW feed would put Delta in BK in a month.

'Mr. Anderson, we find the terms you offer unacceptable. We are converting our options to E195's and will be flying our own schedule. We own the gates in SLC and ATL. Would you like to code share or go bankrupt? I'm sure your unions will understand.'

BTW, Alaska is willing to play ball. How's SEA working out for you?

BYE BYE!!!

 

[General Lee]

What percentage of Delta pax connect on a SKYW flight every day? Twenty? Twenty five?

Comair"s strike cost Delta $1 BILLION per month and that was only KCVG. The loss of SKYW feed would put Delta in BK in a month.

'Mr. Anderson, we find the terms you offer unacceptable. We are converting our options to E195's and will be flying our own schedule. We own the gates in SLC and ATL. Would you like to code share or go bankrupt? I'm sure your unions will understand.'

BTW, Alaska is willing to play ball. How's SEA working out for you?

BYE BYE!!!

Uhhhhhh, not really. Comair's strike cost DL $1 billion TOTAL, not per month. There are other feed opportunities, or just using excess mainline planes. 717s could be used to add seats if needed. This year it appears there could be about $4 billion in profits. DL debt has been paid down to roughly $5-6 billion, down from $18 billion. During the BK, there were too many Major airlines, which is not the case anymore. And, there weren't extra bag and change fees that really add a lot to the profits. Sooooooo, I think you may be incorrect. And SEA is doing great, it will grow from 71 daily flights now to 170 daily by 2017. Compass may open a base up there too.

The Comair strike really taught the legacies a lot, like not allowing one Regional operator to operate all of the feed at one hub. Also, since then there has been Consolidation, and the one way feed from Montana to SLC for example, now has other routings, like through MSP. Stranded pax would simply be rerouted through other, unaffected hubs. Both Endeavor and Compass could assist in MSP too, where you also have a presence. And, with your own dwindling profits, a prolonged strike might not help your own case.

Jon, you're starting to sound a little crazy. Why bring up SEA again? DL needs feed to help fill up INTL flights at the hub. Most of the current DL city pairs in Asia will likely get nonstops from SEA, and that means lots of connections. AK is fairly full, so DL will do it themselves. Big expansion plans, and plenty of profits to pay for it. Have a great day Jon.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Twisted Mind]

Delta is better protected for sure. A stoppage by Skywest would still severely hurt operations. Endeavor will be little help. Endeavor is parking/giving away aircraft to manage the staffing situation there. Delta's pilot training is running at near capacity so a quick 717 fix might not be a solution either.

Does any one remember GL babbling on incoherently about taking back scope? I do. then the contract came out and he couldn't stop gushing about how great it was. The contract gave up scope for large RJ's. Expect more of the same in 2015.

 

[Indy319FA]

Right now anything over 76 seats is a bust for most scope clauses, and higher profits by the legacies mean fewer givebacks by the pilots. The APA already told Parker to shove it when it comes to scope. If Republic were to fly anything over 76 seats for anyone else, they would lose all DL Connection flying. They had a "Frontier exception" when they owned them, but now it's gone. I hear these planes are on the expensive side, and until those prices go down, I don't see many in the US.


Bye Bye---General Lee

Not if they are on the Republic Certificate. Those restrictions only apply to the Chautauqua and Shuttle America certificates. Bedford is a master of the multiple certificate game to get around scope clauses.

 

[XPOO]

Utah-based SkyWest among customers for delayed Japan passenger jet

The world fleet of jets seating 70 to 130 passengers will increase to about 6,580 by 2033, from 3,850 last year, as travel demand increases, according to forecasts from Embraer. The Brazilian company is also upgrading its jets with new engines to an E2 family to take advantage of rising demand.

 

[General Lee]

Utah-based SkyWest among customers for delayed Japan passenger jet

They can order them, but they haven't put them into service yet (obviously), and that will be the real test. I highly doubt they will be flying feed for any US legacy, and they won't be flying for their own "Indy air" type airline. (Unless they want the same result) Nope.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Not if they are on the Republic Certificate. Those restrictions only apply to the Chautauqua and Shuttle America certificates. Bedford is a master of the multiple certificate game to get around scope clauses.

Uhhhhh, notice Republic still has a couple E190s doing casino charters, but not flying any feed for any legacy. There was a "Frontier Exception" in the DL contract, but that is now gone, and those E190s were flying for Frontier for awhile. I don't see any CS100s flying feed for any legacy via Republic, and I certainly don't see an Indy Air type situation. Maybe more casino charters...


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Jon Rivoli]

No one is talking about a Strike and there is no way Delta could replace the capacity. A 25%reduction in passenger traffic would put you in the poor house faster than you could transition to the 717. That's not going to happen. Arrangements will be made and when they are, you will be on here defending them as great business moves for Delta and yada, yada, yada.....

We've heard it all before.

Bye Bye!

 

[Indy319FA]

Uhhhhh, notice Republic still has a couple E190s doing casino charters, but not flying any feed for any legacy. There was a "Frontier Exception" in the DL contract, but that is now gone, and those E190s were flying for Frontier for awhile. I don't see any CS100s flying feed for any legacy via Republic, and I certainly don't see an Indy Air type situation. Maybe more casino charters...


Bye Bye---General Lee

The 190s were flying for Midwest Express before Bedford bought Frontier. Scope applies to certificates, not holding companies. The original Airways scope only applies to what is flown for Airways, not the entire certificate unlike Delta and United. This is why Bedford could put any size aircraft on the Republic certificate. We'll see what happens with the scope on the American/US Airways side of things. APA has never been kind to Bedford in the past, as they fined him $30,000 for every day the 170s were on the Chautauqua certificate when their scope was limited to 50 seats, which is what led to Shuttle getting 170s.

If anybody decides to use 170s/MRJ/CS3000s as a stand alone operation they will have one big advantage Independence Air did not. A CASM friendly airplane. One of the things that killed Fly I was driving 97 CASM unfriendly CRJs around. If Fly I had 170s or CRJ 900s it would have been very different, as the company made money once it got to 12 319s and 25 CRJs. Unfortunately they dug such a hole getting there they were not able to climb out.

 

[Indy319FA]

Uhhhhhh, not really. Comair's strike cost DL $1 billion TOTAL, not per month. There are other feed opportunities, or just using excess mainline planes. 717s could be used to add seats if needed. This year it appears there could be about $4 billion in profits. DL debt has been paid down to roughly $5-6 billion, down from $18 billion. During the BK, there were too many Major airlines, which is not the case anymore. And, there weren't extra bag and change fees that really add a lot to the profits. Sooooooo, I think you may be incorrect. And SEA is doing great, it will grow from 71 daily flights now to 170 daily by 2017. Compass may open a base up there too.

The Comair strike really taught the legacies a lot, like not allowing one Regional operator to operate all of the feed at one hub. Also, since then there has been Consolidation, and the one way feed from Montana to SLC for example, now has other routings, like through MSP. Stranded pax would simply be rerouted through other, unaffected hubs. Both Endeavor and Compass could assist in MSP too, where you also have a presence. And, with your own dwindling profits, a prolonged strike might not help your own case.


Bye Bye---General Lee

Don't be surprised if legacies move away from this as well. The "portfolio" concept of keeping several regionals in a hub may help if there is an interruption in service, but it is horribly inefficient and requires a lot of deadheads and downtime that are difficult to manage under 117 and an environment where regionals are struggling to fill cockpits. UAL is already moving everybody around to get down to two or three regionals per hub. This worked ok in a pre 117 world where there were lots of pilots out there.

 

[General Lee]

The 190s were flying for Midwest Express before Bedford bought Frontier. Scope applies to certificates, not holding companies. The original Airways scope only applies to what is flown for Airways, not the entire certificate unlike Delta and United. This is why Bedford could put any size aircraft on the Republic certificate. We'll see what happens with the scope on the American/US Airways side of things. APA has never been kind to Bedford in the past, as they fined him $30,000 for every day the 170s were on the Chautauqua certificate when their scope was limited to 50 seats, which is what led to Shuttle getting 170s.

If anybody decides to use 170s/MRJ/CS3000s as a stand alone operation they will have one big advantage Independence Air did not. A CASM friendly airplane. One of the things that killed Fly I was driving 97 CASM unfriendly CRJs around. If Fly I had 170s or CRJ 900s it would have been very different, as the company made money once it got to 12 319s and 25 CRJs. Unfortunately they dug such a hole getting there they were not able to climb out.

Look how fast Indy Air died. If any of the Regionals try that again, I expect every other airline to gang up on it and repeat history. See, the thing Indy Air and others didn't and don't understand about going "independent" is the extra costs involved that they didn't have to pay as a feeder, like reservations, advertising, marketing, obtaining their own airport gates/slots/counters, etc. They didn't have to pay for any of that before, and then it bites them in the rear when they start out.

It won't be pretty for anyone who tries in the future, but it will be interesting to watch.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Twisted Mind]

Yea interesting as in it might work. Then they will be picking Delta's pocket while making a profit with their 100 seat aircraft.

 

[johnsonrod]

I still believe we could see Delta CS300s (not the smaller CS100) in the future. The aircraft fits between the 717 and 738/A320 in terms of seating. Anderson mentioned in an article awhile ago that he was interested in the aircraft but would need to see it operational before considering orders... Ya never know........

 

[RJLoser]

We will probably see a new airline formed by Republic or Skywest with these aircraft. It will be a "loophole" and legacies will code share with that new airline.