What will be the first airline to go out of business do to lack of crews?

[Dharmesh1231]

Jedi....what you say definitely makes sense...I was trying to add up all the po dunk flight schools, Univ's and academies that produce pilots. yeah 30K or more is definitely a lot of money to drop for flight training.

 

[TurboAWD]

Vote pro labor in 2008

Aint' that the truth.

Vote your career, lobby your hobby.

Turbo

 

[ASA_Aviator]

I can't understand something....pilot factories like riddle, und and the other univ's are producing so many pilots every year or let's say even every month, so how can there be a pilot shortage. I walked into a flight school the other day in San diego and saw at least 75-100 students training at various levels. Not to mention that Flight Instructors are building rapid time with all these new students. So where is the pilot shortage...."enlighten me" please.

The flight schools cannot keep instructors, so fewer students are finishing. There are WAY fewer people undergoing flight training now that 7 years ago. Fewer commercial certificates were issued in 2006 than 2005. By far, but I don't have the numbers in front of me.

Overall, the regionals are suffering from a massive shortage at the moment. They cannot find enough qualified candidates, and all of the regionals are grasping at the few qualified ones out there.

Eventually, this will filter up to the majors too, as all of the qualified captains from the regionals get hired on, etc. etc.

 

[Way2Broke]

What just happened at Air Midwest?

None will go out of business. If anything they'll just resize. I think some of the more consistantly felt consequences are going to be felt by the passengers who have their flights cancelled left and right.

Don't forget also, that LGA is trying to figure out a way to keep smaller regional flights out of their airport due to saturation problems. It's the beginning of something that is likely to ripple through the industry.

 

[USCtrojan]

The flight schools cannot keep instructors, so fewer students are finishing. There are WAY fewer people undergoing flight training now that 7 years ago. Fewer commercial certificates were issued in 2006 than 2005. By far, but I don't have the numbers in front of me.

Overall, the regionals are suffering from a massive shortage at the moment. They cannot find enough qualified candidates, and all of the regionals are grasping at the few qualified ones out there.

Eventually, this will filter up to the majors too, as all of the qualified captains from the regionals get hired on, etc. etc.

And this is going on right now, before any of the airlines have announced any significant airplane orders. Imagine when that happens and the shortage will quadruple.

Trojan

 

[LoveGun]

Your doesn't hold any water. If it were true that less flights = increased profit, then that is what the airlines would be doing now instead of expanding.

Vote pro liberty in 2008

You're wrong. Airlines can't reduce flights right now because if one airline reduces flights another airline will move in and fill the gap in an effort to broaden their market share. If there was an actual pilot shortage there wouldn't be enough pilots to go around and airlines couldn't expand at will. There would be less flights and the price of tickets would go up.

Vote "pro liberty" in 2008 and you will grant liberty to giant corporations that will continue to crush the individual with their multi-million dollar budget legal departments. We need a government, and especially a justice department, that is for the people.

 

[LR25]

Interesting thread.

10 years ago people were paying 10K to fly airplanes that burned Jet-A, to this.

Does anybody know what year was the last for PFT by the bigger regionals?

 

[Secret Squirrel]

You mean SWA?

I KEEED I KEEED!

 

[Crossky]

Mesa is sinking already

I haven't verified this but a FSD (Sioux Falls SD for all you coasties) United Exp CSA told me that in Sept. United (Big Blue yes United) will start flying two 737's a day to FSD, one overnight. The problem is FSD has too many cancellations with Mesa UAX, primarily due to lack of crew and Mesa's performance in general. FYI FSD metro area about 150K population, growing but not huge.

Could this be indicator of things to come if regionals continue to take the brunt of this real pilot shortage? Mainlines taking all their planes from the desert and covering flights that their regionals can't perform due to staffing? Fewer oversold and weight restricted RJ flights? Sign me up.

 

[Inconceivable]

As late os 2003 (correct me if wrong) Pinnacle still had kids paying five figures for training, after paying tens of thousands to raise gear at Gulfstream.

Just think kids, had you waited four years and built your time and learned your craft you would be the same distance from your upgrade and you would own a house and a nice car!
</Nelson Laughter>