What will be the first airline to go out of business do to lack of crews?

[Dharmesh1231]

Jedi....what you say definitely makes sense...I was trying to add up all the po dunk flight schools, Univ's and academies that produce pilots. yeah 30K or more is definitely a lot of money to drop for flight training.

 

[TurboAWD]

Vote pro labor in 2008

Aint' that the truth.

Vote your career, lobby your hobby.

Turbo

 

[ASA_Aviator]

I can't understand something....pilot factories like riddle, und and the other univ's are producing so many pilots every year or let's say even every month, so how can there be a pilot shortage. I walked into a flight school the other day in San diego and saw at least 75-100 students training at various levels. Not to mention that Flight Instructors are building rapid time with all these new students. So where is the pilot shortage...."enlighten me" please.

The flight schools cannot keep instructors, so fewer students are finishing. There are WAY fewer people undergoing flight training now that 7 years ago. Fewer commercial certificates were issued in 2006 than 2005. By far, but I don't have the numbers in front of me.

Overall, the regionals are suffering from a massive shortage at the moment. They cannot find enough qualified candidates, and all of the regionals are grasping at the few qualified ones out there.

Eventually, this will filter up to the majors too, as all of the qualified captains from the regionals get hired on, etc. etc.

 

[Way2Broke]

What just happened at Air Midwest?

None will go out of business. If anything they'll just resize. I think some of the more consistantly felt consequences are going to be felt by the passengers who have their flights cancelled left and right.

Don't forget also, that LGA is trying to figure out a way to keep smaller regional flights out of their airport due to saturation problems. It's the beginning of something that is likely to ripple through the industry.

 

[USCtrojan]

The flight schools cannot keep instructors, so fewer students are finishing. There are WAY fewer people undergoing flight training now that 7 years ago. Fewer commercial certificates were issued in 2006 than 2005. By far, but I don't have the numbers in front of me.

Overall, the regionals are suffering from a massive shortage at the moment. They cannot find enough qualified candidates, and all of the regionals are grasping at the few qualified ones out there.

Eventually, this will filter up to the majors too, as all of the qualified captains from the regionals get hired on, etc. etc.

And this is going on right now, before any of the airlines have announced any significant airplane orders. Imagine when that happens and the shortage will quadruple.

Trojan

 

[LoveGun]

Your doesn't hold any water. If it were true that less flights = increased profit, then that is what the airlines would be doing now instead of expanding.

Vote pro liberty in 2008

You're wrong. Airlines can't reduce flights right now because if one airline reduces flights another airline will move in and fill the gap in an effort to broaden their market share. If there was an actual pilot shortage there wouldn't be enough pilots to go around and airlines couldn't expand at will. There would be less flights and the price of tickets would go up.

Vote "pro liberty" in 2008 and you will grant liberty to giant corporations that will continue to crush the individual with their multi-million dollar budget legal departments. We need a government, and especially a justice department, that is for the people.

 

[LR25]

Interesting thread.

10 years ago people were paying 10K to fly airplanes that burned Jet-A, to this.

Does anybody know what year was the last for PFT by the bigger regionals?

 

[Secret Squirrel]

You mean SWA?

I KEEED I KEEED!

 

[Crossky]

Mesa is sinking already

I haven't verified this but a FSD (Sioux Falls SD for all you coasties) United Exp CSA told me that in Sept. United (Big Blue yes United) will start flying two 737's a day to FSD, one overnight. The problem is FSD has too many cancellations with Mesa UAX, primarily due to lack of crew and Mesa's performance in general. FYI FSD metro area about 150K population, growing but not huge.

Could this be indicator of things to come if regionals continue to take the brunt of this real pilot shortage? Mainlines taking all their planes from the desert and covering flights that their regionals can't perform due to staffing? Fewer oversold and weight restricted RJ flights? Sign me up.

 

[Inconceivable]

As late os 2003 (correct me if wrong) Pinnacle still had kids paying five figures for training, after paying tens of thousands to raise gear at Gulfstream.

Just think kids, had you waited four years and built your time and learned your craft you would be the same distance from your upgrade and you would own a house and a nice car!
</Nelson Laughter>

 

[LearLove]

Interesting thread.

10 years ago people were paying 10K to fly airplanes that burned Jet-A, to this.

Does anybody know what year was the last for PFT by the bigger regionals?

off the top of my head: in the last "boom" (pre 911) either ASA or Comair was the last of the "large" commuters/regionals to PFT, ACA dropped theirs in early 1998, buy late 1999/early 2000 netjets had dropped theirs, CHQ was sometime around 98/99 but it depended on how much time you had, COEX started dropping the PFT in late 98 if you had 1200 and 200 then totally dropped it by late 99/2000. Commute Air in PLB was pft until atleast the summer of 99.

Then again it depends on what level you judge PFT. Is PFT just giving a check for training or is PFT not paying but taking a job where you provide hotel or don't get paid until training is over or some combo of thoes?

Here are some commuters that were never PFT and put you up in training and paid salary from day one:

Eagle, Allegheny, Piedmont, AWA, Horizon

note: being and east coast guy i've never been that familar with express one, mesaba or skywest.

also don't forget US Check's PFT sic program that was arounf until post 911 ans still may be around today.

Colgan brought back PFT post 911

 

[mcjohn]

You PFT. You smoke pole. You can climb the corporate ladder or you can ride the corporate pole.

One thing is for certain. If you PFT in this current hiring climate you are only expecting to have everything handed to you. You will wash out as you desperately lap at the bungholes of your kind trainers. You will be confused as you think, "But I have all this money my parents gave me to do this. Do you know who I am?! You owe it to me."

It's then that you'll realize...that you suck.

Carry on!

 

[BrickTop]

What do you think will be the first airline to go out of business because they can not man their aircraft?

Instead rephase question to ask "Which regional would we like to see implode due to lack of staffing"

Good riddens MESA!!!!!!!!

 

[Fred Rogers]

Instead rephase question to ask "Which regional would we like to see implode due to lack of staffing"

Good riddens MESA!!!!!!!!

There is a part of me that would like to see ALL these $hitbag outfits implode.

(it's the part of me that doesn't need a job)

 

[Axel]

"riddens?"

Now that's funny... in a fingernails scraping on a blackboard kind of way.

 

[SoberIrishman]

If spellin an grammair wuz a wreckrisit to be a pilut, weed all be in truble!

 

[Fred Rogers]

If spellin an grammair wuz a wreckrisit to be a pilut, weed all be in truble!

Ha! Aint that the trudth

 

[Old School 737]

Had a Mesa jumpseater the other day, he was hired off the street as a -8 CPT. Has 2000 total time and 600 multi. Said there were 6 guys in his class that were also hired off the street as Capt and 3 or 4 washed out.

 

[Axel]

If spellin an grammair wuz a wreckrisit to be a pilut, weed all be in truble!

How about accuracy and attention to detail?

Seriously, I've made some fun of the loose/lose, your/you're, etc. thing, but "riddens" actually caused me physical pain.

Remember this?

http://www.damnfunnypictures.com/html/Get-A-Brain-Morans.html

It's a doggy-dog world out there.

 

[TurboAWD]

Everyone needs to put in their contract that all new hires are employees from day one, with pay, and no PFT in their contract. Can't let PFT happen again, it drags us all down from the bottom

Turbo