US Airways May 12th class

[Soulfly]

Auto, I believe you missed my point.

With oil at these levels, quite a few airlines are going to be gone. If you go Ch.11 you have to show an exit plan. Pretty tough to do with oil this high.

Unfortunately, IMO, I think we are going to see a few 100% furloughs.

At current rates oil will be at $150 this summer.

 

[DustyBottoms]

After 9-11, US Airways furloughed the highest percentage of pilots than any other legacy airline. They furloughed 1800 pilots off a list of 5100, or 36%, so don't under estimate what is possible. It went on for years, and came in several furlough/downsizing cycles. FWIW...

Then they merged with AWA, started recalling and upgrading...

 

[Tweaker]

Auto, I believe you missed my point.

With oil at these levels, quite a few airlines are going to be gone. If you go Ch.11 you have to show an exit plan. Pretty tough to do with oil this high.

Unfortunately, IMO, I think we are going to see a few 100% furloughs.

It current rates oil will be at $150 this summer.

_____Oil does not increase at a "rate." It trades due to market fluctuations. It is what it is. Airlines will adapt or be destroyed. If the latter, the govt. will step in and make major changes (re-regulation) or they will not and chaos will ensue.

_____Soon we (the capitalists) will realize that this is not an aberation, but rather a permanent new paradigm (increased worldwide demand from China, India and many other former dirt floor dwellers).

_____Until then, it is great advice to have your resume and apps up to date. I might suggest additionally to get a generous food/medicine/firearm/ammunition supply put together. But that could just be the boy scout in me coming out. History bears the logic of this out, and unfortunately repeats itself.

 

[johnsonrod]

What was the aircraft breakout for the last class full of PDT Dash drivers? I thought I heard a split between PHX-based 737s and LAS-based Airbuses. Anyone have the split?

Will the next class be West Coast based as well?

 

[FurloughedAgain]

On March 2, 2002 I was furloughed from US Airways where I was 4997 out of 6076 on the list. Check my math, but I believe that is around 17.8%

Remained on furlough until October 2007 when I was given my final opportunity to accept recall. I declined.

 

[Colonel Savage]

Then they merged with AWA, started recalling and upgrading...

Not exactly, they closed the merger deal, AWA then announced that they were parking 30 737's and 5 Airbii on the East side. A year and a half later they began to recall pilots, with 20% of the 1800 furloughees electing to come back.

But that's all beside the point. The post I was responding to concerned typical furloughing practices, and since this was a US Airways thread I felt the need to share some relevant history.

 

[Colonel Savage]

On March 2, 2002 I was furloughed from US Airways where I was 4997 out of 6076 on the list. Check my math, but I believe that is around 17.8%

Remained on furlough until October 2007 when I was given my final opportunity to accept recall. I declined.

I'm sorry to hear that. I hope things are better where you are now. Your math is correct, but were you the last pilot to get furloughed? I'm not trying to pick knits, but as I recall they continued to furlough past that date.

 

[Colonel Savage]

I might suggest additionally to get a generous food/medicine/firearm/ammunition supply put together...History bears the logic of this out, and unfortunately repeats itself.

Sounds like you're expecting more that a recession or industry downturn. There are those who fear for a major inflationary senario.

 

[Tweaker]

Sounds like you're expecting more that a recession or industry downturn. There are those who fear for a major inflationary senario.

_____I would not go so far to say expecting, but I would not be surprised. A saying goes, better to have a gun and not need it than to need one and not have it. Same applies to the skills to use it, and food etc.

_____My situation/perspective is of course personal, but I am not willing to remain at my regional while I await for the perfect time to become major airline furlough fodder.

_____As an example, I got married and bought a house within 3 months of 9/11/2001. I thought my whole world and all my dreams/plans were in danger of collapsing around me. As it turned out, I never even was furloughed, and my house increased to twice the price I paid for it.

 

[Tweaker]

Not exactly, they closed the merger deal, AWA then announced that they were parking 30 737's and 5 Airbii on the East side. A year and a half later they began to recall pilots, with 20% of the 1800 furloughees electing to come back.

But that's all beside the point. The post I was responding to concerned typical furloughing practices, and since this was a US Airways thread I felt the need to share some relevant history.

According to the former ALPA, now USAPA man who gave a presentation to our class, 700 of the 1800 returned.

 

[cactusboy53]

If any new hires are looking for a crash pad, check out the ad in the Crashpad column. Welcome aboard!

 

[LearLove]

According to the former ALPA, now USAPA man who gave a presentation to our class, 700 of the 1800 returned.

yes he (DC) is correct but I'm not sure if it takes into account thoes that showed for class then resigned during class to get their cash.

I THINK the 700 is the number that showed for class, but the actual number that stayed is less than the 700.

Also off-the-street new hires are only around 100 in number. The most junior CEL guy or lest senior furlough is/was number 3552 (+/- 1 or 2) and on the July bid 3622 was the most junior guy (phl e190). 3622-3534 = 70 new hires. That 70 doesn't include the 14 or so that started indoc in PHX on 4/14. There is another small class (say 5 guys - last returning j4j) on 5/4 and (from what I hear) the last class on 5/12 which I guessing will be 15 guys (pdt/psa pref. guys and other airlines).

So 70+5+14+15= 104 newhires inclass since interviewing started. This doesn't include the newhires that went to the west - I only have number for east. Acually taking that into account the 4/14 PHX class had about 7 go west so lower that 104 by 7 for 97 on the east side "off-the -street".

alot less than the 400 orginally stated

As for the aircraft and pilot numbers (east side only and using the July bid numbers)

The bid said there are 2800 flying positions. Like I said before 3622 was the highest number I saw (phl e190 fo) So 3622-2800=822 guy on leave/med or instructors I guess.

My best guess on the east fleet is 220 (boeing/ab) and 15 E190's. (remember the 190's don't count twards the 220 min fleet) So 235 total aircraft.

2800/235=11.91 pilot/aircraft. I was told that there are about 250 instructors across the fleet so taking thoes from the 822 inactive and adding them to the 2800 is 3050. 3050/235=12.97 pilot/aircraft which seems about right from what i'm told.

the number are my "educated" estimate using the data i have available. The 220 number is our min fleet from LOA #499049494390349043E to the 99th power. Again the 190's don't count so by year end with 220 ab and boeing and 25 e190's that is 245 east aircraft. at 13 pilots per aircraft 13 times 245 is 3185 pilots. #3622 total so in the list for july. they say that at a major at any given time 10% of the list is on med or loa so 10% of 3622 = 362. 3622-362 = 3260. 3260-3185 = 75

 

[AutoBus]

After 9-11, US Airways furloughed the highest percentage of pilots than any other legacy airline. They furloughed 1800 pilots off a list of 5100, or 36%, so don't under estimate what is possible. It went on for years, and came in several furlough/downsizing cycles. FWIW...

Correct, and they were a basket case on the verge of shutting down. Hence, my spiralling out of control statement. Had a rescue not occured 100% would have been gone.

 

[BeCareful!]

Correct, and they were a basket case on the verge of shutting down. Hence, my spiralling out of control statement. Had a rescue not occured 100% would have been gone.

Oh, is that what would have happened? Thanks. I've been wondering if someone on the Internet could clear this mystery up for all of us since, you know, U's been going out of business for 20 years or more. Finally, someone willing to come forward with a "statement of fact" on the topic!

 

[MCDU]

Yeah, and ATA and ALOHA were great airlines and no one predicted their sudden demise. Now puff! Gone.

The only way you get extreme cost cuts is by spreading fear of shutting down. The contract would have been voted down if the pilots were not concerned. You never hear fear tactics if they are really in trouble. Fear is a tool management uses to get as much money out of a company. The plan is to get rich by spreading fear and then cashing in knowing how dumb and selfish pilots are.
USair was not going anywhere. To bad the pilots agreed to LOA 93. From BK to being the most profitabe airline next to SWA in just 2 years. Give me a break.

 

[Deadalus]

Yeah, and ATA and ALOHA were great airlines and no one predicted their sudden demise. Now puff! Gone.

The only way you get extreme cost cuts is by spreading fear of shutting down. The contract would have been voted down if the pilots were not concerned. You never hear fear tactics if they are really in trouble. Fear is a tool management uses to get as much money out of a company. The plan is to get rich by spreading fear and then cashing in knowing how dumb and selfish pilots are.
USair was not going anywhere. To bad the pilots agreed to LOA 93. From BK to being the most profitabe airline next to SWA in just 2 years. Give me a break.

I my gosh you guys are delusional. You didn't even have enough money left to make the payroll. We payed your salaries by buying a f$#%ing aircraft the month leading into the merger. Holy cripes, no wonder you guys were so out of touch with the integration. Get a clue.

 

[Captzaahlie]

_____It is what it is. _____

You must have had the same instructor for g/s that I had.... notice how they all use that line? The only fire power we really needed at the cookout was the charcoal! Have you learned your hollers yet?
You are going to miss out on a fantastic sim instructor here in PHX. DM is teaching us some very amazing stuff!

 

[flyNICKair]

Hey Nick were you a capt at ALG in the late 90s?

No, started @ PDT in 98

 

[flyNICKair]

Any rumors on bases/aircraft to be offered?

Rumors are, no more West for the rest of the year.

 

[waveflyer]

Yeah, and ATA and ALOHA were great airlines and no one predicted their sudden demise. Now puff! Gone.

The only way you get extreme cost cuts is by spreading fear of shutting down. The contract would have been voted down if the pilots were not concerned. You never hear fear tactics if they are really in trouble. Fear is a tool management uses to get as much money out of a company. The plan is to get rich by spreading fear and then cashing in knowing how dumb and selfish pilots are.
USair was not going anywhere. To bad the pilots agreed to LOA 93. From BK to being the most profitabe airline next to SWA in just 2 years. Give me a break.

Yeah- but doesn't it really hurt the industry to be flying under this bk loa? Yes - it really does. So since you (meaning 51% of AAA pilots) signed off on this to protect your seniority- then got your airline cut in half and the rest jacked in the Nic award i think is a union's form of justice.... Maybe you should think twice before whoring yourself out to "save" your seniority.

You all would have much more credibility if you used your experience to lobby for change to our archaeic seniority system. In the meantime- since you've condoned the status quo- you get to live w/ it. I like many of you- but don't feel a bit sorry for any of you.