US Airways May 12th class

[AutoBus]

Gentleman,

If oil makes it over $150/bbl, if you are 50% from the bottom you better be looking at that second career or a good college.

.

50% no, 15% maybe, the economics make it impractical to furlough much more than that (if you know what I mean) when you get to that point things tend to spiral out of control pretty quickly.

 

[The Victors]

I would agree. Don't know where you guys are coming from or how bad it is there, but I would be very nervous to be on the bottom of the list at a place like us airways.

 

[HalinTexas]

ATA furloughed 30%. They recalled some, but shut down about a year later.

If you're with a pax carrier, be ready. Anything can happen.

 

[Colonel Savage]

The only safe places are SW, FedEx, and UPS.

Safe? I would say "less likely to downsize".

 

[Colonel Savage]

50% no, 15% maybe, the economics make it impractical to furlough much more than that (if you know what I mean) when you get to that point things tend to spiral out of control pretty quickly.

After 9-11, US Airways furloughed the highest percentage of pilots than any other legacy airline. They furloughed 1800 pilots off a list of 5100, or 36%, so don't under estimate what is possible. It went on for years, and came in several furlough/downsizing cycles. FWIW...

 

[Soulfly]

Auto, I believe you missed my point.

With oil at these levels, quite a few airlines are going to be gone. If you go Ch.11 you have to show an exit plan. Pretty tough to do with oil this high.

Unfortunately, IMO, I think we are going to see a few 100% furloughs.

At current rates oil will be at $150 this summer.

 

[DustyBottoms]

After 9-11, US Airways furloughed the highest percentage of pilots than any other legacy airline. They furloughed 1800 pilots off a list of 5100, or 36%, so don't under estimate what is possible. It went on for years, and came in several furlough/downsizing cycles. FWIW...

Then they merged with AWA, started recalling and upgrading...

 

[Tweaker]

Auto, I believe you missed my point.

With oil at these levels, quite a few airlines are going to be gone. If you go Ch.11 you have to show an exit plan. Pretty tough to do with oil this high.

Unfortunately, IMO, I think we are going to see a few 100% furloughs.

It current rates oil will be at $150 this summer.

_____Oil does not increase at a "rate." It trades due to market fluctuations. It is what it is. Airlines will adapt or be destroyed. If the latter, the govt. will step in and make major changes (re-regulation) or they will not and chaos will ensue.

_____Soon we (the capitalists) will realize that this is not an aberation, but rather a permanent new paradigm (increased worldwide demand from China, India and many other former dirt floor dwellers).

_____Until then, it is great advice to have your resume and apps up to date. I might suggest additionally to get a generous food/medicine/firearm/ammunition supply put together. But that could just be the boy scout in me coming out. History bears the logic of this out, and unfortunately repeats itself.

 

[johnsonrod]

What was the aircraft breakout for the last class full of PDT Dash drivers? I thought I heard a split between PHX-based 737s and LAS-based Airbuses. Anyone have the split?

Will the next class be West Coast based as well?

 

[FurloughedAgain]

On March 2, 2002 I was furloughed from US Airways where I was 4997 out of 6076 on the list. Check my math, but I believe that is around 17.8%

Remained on furlough until October 2007 when I was given my final opportunity to accept recall. I declined.

 

[Colonel Savage]

Then they merged with AWA, started recalling and upgrading...

Not exactly, they closed the merger deal, AWA then announced that they were parking 30 737's and 5 Airbii on the East side. A year and a half later they began to recall pilots, with 20% of the 1800 furloughees electing to come back.

But that's all beside the point. The post I was responding to concerned typical furloughing practices, and since this was a US Airways thread I felt the need to share some relevant history.

 

[Colonel Savage]

On March 2, 2002 I was furloughed from US Airways where I was 4997 out of 6076 on the list. Check my math, but I believe that is around 17.8%

Remained on furlough until October 2007 when I was given my final opportunity to accept recall. I declined.

I'm sorry to hear that. I hope things are better where you are now. Your math is correct, but were you the last pilot to get furloughed? I'm not trying to pick knits, but as I recall they continued to furlough past that date.

 

[Colonel Savage]

I might suggest additionally to get a generous food/medicine/firearm/ammunition supply put together...History bears the logic of this out, and unfortunately repeats itself.

Sounds like you're expecting more that a recession or industry downturn. There are those who fear for a major inflationary senario.

 

[Tweaker]

Sounds like you're expecting more that a recession or industry downturn. There are those who fear for a major inflationary senario.

_____I would not go so far to say expecting, but I would not be surprised. A saying goes, better to have a gun and not need it than to need one and not have it. Same applies to the skills to use it, and food etc.

_____My situation/perspective is of course personal, but I am not willing to remain at my regional while I await for the perfect time to become major airline furlough fodder.

_____As an example, I got married and bought a house within 3 months of 9/11/2001. I thought my whole world and all my dreams/plans were in danger of collapsing around me. As it turned out, I never even was furloughed, and my house increased to twice the price I paid for it.

 

[Tweaker]

Not exactly, they closed the merger deal, AWA then announced that they were parking 30 737's and 5 Airbii on the East side. A year and a half later they began to recall pilots, with 20% of the 1800 furloughees electing to come back.

But that's all beside the point. The post I was responding to concerned typical furloughing practices, and since this was a US Airways thread I felt the need to share some relevant history.

According to the former ALPA, now USAPA man who gave a presentation to our class, 700 of the 1800 returned.