First, I want to make sure you understand how stupid of a pilot (me) you're asking this question to. I had a JBLU interview the day after my UAL class started (June 2000) - I cancelled it. I had a Northwest interview offered halfway through UAL class, which I spent a lot of time debating on. Needless to say, either of those two choices would have put me in better shape than I am now.
If I were a JBLU guy, I'd rack and stack in the following manner:
1) USAirways/AMR
2) Delta
3) United
And I'd go to any of them over staying with JBLU.
Retirements alone will keep things moving at all three companies. There aren't nearly the number of retirement movement at JBLU compared to the big three.
I put USAirways/AMR number one because I have come to believe that Doug Parker and his team are the best in the business right now. I didn't used to feel that way, but if they can hold together a completely dysfunctional workforce and make record profits, I can only imagine how successful that team will be once the beaten down (and much larger) AMR workforce is thrown into the mix. The Easties will probably get a smackdown but the company will likely be firing on all cylinders within 2-3 years.
I like Delta's management but they haven't been faced with the significant challenges that USAirways has dealt with.
United's management is really old Continental management; if you look at the resume of 20-some VPs at United, you'll see that 90% of them are from Continental. And quite frankly, they're living examples of the Peter Principle, except they've risen well above their level of competence. I was never impressed with old United management, but I have been shocked at how incompetent the current management is. The best way I can describe it is if the management of a chain of 20 gas stations took over running Exxon/Mobil.
United's poor management will eventually get resolved, but it will take some time. If we have two or three more mediocre quarters, I'd expect Smisek to be shown the door. He is unable to cultivate a talented management team and that's what's holding back United at the moment.
Keep in mind that management comes and goes but you can see how successful Southwest has been due to having a deep bench of management talent. All things considered, I think that USAirways' talent runs deeper than Delta and United.
United's product: It's improving, albeit slowly. We're WAY behind in having WiFi onboard and Smisek's team really screwed the pooch by going with a mostly two class international configuration. And the RJs are hated by United's best customers - most would rather have a city pair frequency reduction than have to be stuffed into a 50 or 70 seater (I talk to enough elites to understand what bothers them). They absolutely need to have narrow gauged aircraft where a frequent flyer can put his rollaboard in the overhead.
One of the big things that United management continually drops the ball is cargo. They've replaced the 747 with 777s on routes that used to have 747s full of cargo at a nice profit. The 777 doesn't have the same capacity and the 787-8 is even worse than the 777. The 787-9 is similar to the 777-200 and the 787-10 is similar to the 747-400. Unfortunately, United has orders split fairly evenly between the three 787 variations ... and the only one rolling off the assembly line right now is the 787-8. United would have been MUCH smarter to take either 747s, 787s, or an Airbus product over the 787-8, as I think it will be one of those aircraft that will be incredibly difficult to make money flying. Or just waited for the 787-10.
As far as finances go between the airlines, I'm only going to analyze UAL vs Delta. These numbers are based on Q2 filings.
UAL had approximately $2 Billion more in cash/equivalents on their balance sheet.
Delta had approximately $1.8 Billion more in current liabilities on their balance sheet.
Delta had approximately $20 Billion more in long term liabilities/noncurrent debt on their balance sheet. A lot of that is due to pension liabilities; Delta has $15 Billion in pensions on the books vice $2 billion for United.
Another category on the balance sheet is goodwill - something I call worthless crap. Link:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/goodwill.asp
Delta has $9.8 Billion in goodwill on the balance sheet while United has $4.5 Billion. Goodwill is counted on the balance sheet as an asset, but it has no real value - it's just a bookkeeping exercise.
So between United and Delta, United has a stronger balance sheet in multiple areas. I don't know how USAirways/AMR's balance sheet will look but I suspect that it'll be fairly clean after AMR emerges from Chap 11.
All three airlines have a ton of retirements in the near term, something you won't see at JBLU. For that reason, I think you'll see much faster advancement at any of the three. And a choice of what type of flying you prefer - long haul vs short haul, domestic vs international.
Aircraft orders: We pilots make way too much of a deal about aircraft orders. UAL, DAL, and AMR can jump to the front of the line when they place orders because Boeing and Airbus are going to do their best to make their biggest customers happy.
As far as the Bombardier CS100 and 300, I don't see much difference in seating capacity between them and A319/320 or 737-700. I would think it would be better to have less aircraft types but knowing United management, they'll probably go with the CS since it's new and its performance is unknown. Maybe it can be nicknamed lil sparky.
As far as your question about current hiring. UAL is severely understaffed and will be further understaffed with FAR 117. They also need to fill a training pipeline with all of the retirements. A single 777 captain retirement creates half a dozen training events. Think of it this way - United will need 500 or so pilots constantly in training just to keep up with retirements. It will be even worse at USAirways/AMR.
