United question.

[Smarta$$]

Are any of the 737s on order for growth, or are they all replacement?

Another question, half of UAL (and all legacies) departures every day are on RJs. I have no love for regional airlines, but it is a large part of UALs traffic and feeds people onto the mainline jets. My question is, what is the the plan when those regionals start parking planes due to lack of pilots?

 

[pianoman]

1. Replacement
2. None that I've heard

 

[Andy]

Smarta$$, a large part of the reason why RJs have grown so much is due to additional frequency between city pairs. Should the RJ subcontractors be unable to provide enough departures, I would expect to see upguaging coupled with frequency reduction.
3 50 seaters ~ 2 70 seaters
1 50 seater + 1 70 seater ~ 1 A320
etc

Do you think that there'll be a shortage of pilots anytime soon? I think we'll see foreign airlines being forced to raise salaries before there's a shortage of regional pilots.

 

[Smarta$$]

Smarta$$, a large part of the reason why RJs have grown so much is due to additional frequency between city pairs. Should the RJ subcontractors be unable to provide enough departures, I would expect to see upguaging coupled with frequency reduction.
3 50 seaters ~ 2 70 seaters
1 50 seater + 1 70 seater ~ 1 A320
etc

Do you think that there'll be a shortage of pilots anytime soon? I think we'll see foreign airlines being forced to raise salaries before there's a shortage of regional pilots.

Shortage at the regionals in the next couple years? Probably

As for upgauging, I would think all the larger 70 seaters are already being used to the maximum, and if they want to replace 50 seaters with 73s or the 320s, they would need to buy more of them. That is partly why I asked if any of the 737 order was for growth.

 

[Andy]

Shortage at the regionals in the next couple years? Probably

As for upgauging, I would think all the larger 70 seaters are already being used to the maximum, and if they want to replace 50 seaters with 73s or the 320s, they would need to buy more of them. That is partly why I asked if any of the 737 order was for growth.

The last fleet plan was published in the 25 July investor update. For 2013, it showed a net decrease of 10 mainline aircraft. The plan called for parking 23 757s, 5 767s, and an increase of 3 787s and 15 737s. At the same time, it called for an increase of 25 regional jets.

United could slow down parking 757s and 767s, but I think that almost all of the 737s on order now are -900s. I'm not impressed with the fleet plan because there aren't any replacement mainline aircraft on order smaller than the 737-900.

You can find the information on this page: http://ir.unitedcontinentalholdings.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=83680&p=irol-IRHome
Go to the Investor Updates tab and it'll give you quite a few financial metrics. The latest update (26 Sep) didn't include an updated fleet plan so I assume the 25 July one is still in effect.

 

[stillflyn]

There are some rumors around about UAL putting in an order for a 100 seat airplane to be flown by UAL pilots. Just a rumor right now.

 

[Smarta$$]

And the company saying hiring will go to 60-100 per month indefinitely? With only 400 retirements next year, what will they do with all the extra new-hires?

 

[Jetjockey]

there are some rumors around about ual putting in an order for a 100 seat airplane to be flown by ual pilots. Just a rumor right now.

cs300

 

[Smarta$$]

The last fleet plan was published in the 25 July investor update. For 2013, it showed a net decrease of 10 mainline aircraft. The plan called for parking 23 757s, 5 767s, and an increase of 3 787s and 15 737s. At the same time, it called for an increase of 25 regional jets.

United could slow down parking 757s and 767s, but I think that almost all of the 737s on order now are -900s. I'm not impressed with the fleet plan because there aren't any replacement mainline aircraft on order smaller than the 737-900.

You can find the information on this page: http://ir.unitedcontinentalholdings.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=83680&p=irol-IRHome
Go to the Investor Updates tab and it'll give you quite a few financial metrics. The latest update (26 Sep) didn't include an updated fleet plan so I assume the 25 July one is still in effect.

Hey Andy, would you recommend a JB guy to look at UAL?

Are they making significant product and service improvements? Do you think UAL management is playing to win (actually running an airline well) right now?

I think you are a numbers guy if I remember correctly, how would you characterize United's finances compared to DL, AA, and JB?

I have been at JB a little over 2 years. I generally like it. I am about 15% off the the bottom and have been increasing seniority here at about 6% annually. They say a 15-25% raise is coming for Jan 1st here, might happen, might not. Our retirement is currently 13% with no profit sharing...

Any insights?

Smart

 

[boxjockey]

Smarta$$, a large part of the reason why RJs have grown so much is due to additional frequency between city pairs. Should the RJ subcontractors be unable to provide enough departures, I would expect to see upguaging coupled with frequency reduction.
3 50 seaters ~ 2 70 seaters
1 50 seater + 1 70 seater ~ 1 A320
etc

Do you think that there'll be a shortage of pilots anytime soon? I think we'll see foreign airlines being forced to raise salaries before there's a shortage of regional pilots.

I'm currently working in Hong Kong, and there are many of the carriers around the region as much as doubling their previous packages to try and draw in talent. I'm not saying the title wave is coming, but there are signs.

box

 

[Andy]

Hey Andy, would you recommend a JB guy to look at UAL?

Are they making significant product and service improvements? Do you think UAL management is playing to win (actually running an airline well) right now?

I think you are a numbers guy if I remember correctly, how would you characterize United's finances compared to DL, AA, and JB?

I have been at JB a little over 2 years. I generally like it. I am about 15% off the the bottom and have been increasing seniority here at about 6% annually. They say a 15-25% raise is coming for Jan 1st here, might happen, might not. Our retirement is currently 13% with no profit sharing...

Any insights?

Smart

First, I want to make sure you understand how stupid of a pilot (me) you're asking this question to. I had a JBLU interview the day after my UAL class started (June 2000) - I cancelled it. I had a Northwest interview offered halfway through UAL class, which I spent a lot of time debating on. Needless to say, either of those two choices would have put me in better shape than I am now.

If I were a JBLU guy, I'd rack and stack in the following manner:
1) USAirways/AMR
2) Delta
3) United
And I'd go to any of them over staying with JBLU.

Retirements alone will keep things moving at all three companies. There aren't nearly the number of retirement movement at JBLU compared to the big three.

I put USAirways/AMR number one because I have come to believe that Doug Parker and his team are the best in the business right now. I didn't used to feel that way, but if they can hold together a completely dysfunctional workforce and make record profits, I can only imagine how successful that team will be once the beaten down (and much larger) AMR workforce is thrown into the mix. The Easties will probably get a smackdown but the company will likely be firing on all cylinders within 2-3 years.

I like Delta's management but they haven't been faced with the significant challenges that USAirways has dealt with.

United's management is really old Continental management; if you look at the resume of 20-some VPs at United, you'll see that 90% of them are from Continental. And quite frankly, they're living examples of the Peter Principle, except they've risen well above their level of competence. I was never impressed with old United management, but I have been shocked at how incompetent the current management is. The best way I can describe it is if the management of a chain of 20 gas stations took over running Exxon/Mobil.

United's poor management will eventually get resolved, but it will take some time. If we have two or three more mediocre quarters, I'd expect Smisek to be shown the door. He is unable to cultivate a talented management team and that's what's holding back United at the moment.

Keep in mind that management comes and goes but you can see how successful Southwest has been due to having a deep bench of management talent. All things considered, I think that USAirways' talent runs deeper than Delta and United.

United's product: It's improving, albeit slowly. We're WAY behind in having WiFi onboard and Smisek's team really screwed the pooch by going with a mostly two class international configuration. And the RJs are hated by United's best customers - most would rather have a city pair frequency reduction than have to be stuffed into a 50 or 70 seater (I talk to enough elites to understand what bothers them). They absolutely need to have narrow gauged aircraft where a frequent flyer can put his rollaboard in the overhead.
One of the big things that United management continually drops the ball is cargo. They've replaced the 747 with 777s on routes that used to have 747s full of cargo at a nice profit. The 777 doesn't have the same capacity and the 787-8 is even worse than the 777. The 787-9 is similar to the 777-200 and the 787-10 is similar to the 747-400. Unfortunately, United has orders split fairly evenly between the three 787 variations ... and the only one rolling off the assembly line right now is the 787-8. United would have been MUCH smarter to take either 747s, 787s, or an Airbus product over the 787-8, as I think it will be one of those aircraft that will be incredibly difficult to make money flying. Or just waited for the 787-10.

As far as finances go between the airlines, I'm only going to analyze UAL vs Delta. These numbers are based on Q2 filings.
UAL had approximately $2 Billion more in cash/equivalents on their balance sheet.
Delta had approximately $1.8 Billion more in current liabilities on their balance sheet.
Delta had approximately $20 Billion more in long term liabilities/noncurrent debt on their balance sheet. A lot of that is due to pension liabilities; Delta has $15 Billion in pensions on the books vice $2 billion for United.

Another category on the balance sheet is goodwill - something I call worthless crap. Link: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/goodwill.asp
Delta has $9.8 Billion in goodwill on the balance sheet while United has $4.5 Billion. Goodwill is counted on the balance sheet as an asset, but it has no real value - it's just a bookkeeping exercise.

So between United and Delta, United has a stronger balance sheet in multiple areas. I don't know how USAirways/AMR's balance sheet will look but I suspect that it'll be fairly clean after AMR emerges from Chap 11.

All three airlines have a ton of retirements in the near term, something you won't see at JBLU. For that reason, I think you'll see much faster advancement at any of the three. And a choice of what type of flying you prefer - long haul vs short haul, domestic vs international.


Aircraft orders: We pilots make way too much of a deal about aircraft orders. UAL, DAL, and AMR can jump to the front of the line when they place orders because Boeing and Airbus are going to do their best to make their biggest customers happy.

As far as the Bombardier CS100 and 300, I don't see much difference in seating capacity between them and A319/320 or 737-700. I would think it would be better to have less aircraft types but knowing United management, they'll probably go with the CS since it's new and its performance is unknown. Maybe it can be nicknamed lil sparky.


As far as your question about current hiring. UAL is severely understaffed and will be further understaffed with FAR 117. They also need to fill a training pipeline with all of the retirements. A single 777 captain retirement creates half a dozen training events. Think of it this way - United will need 500 or so pilots constantly in training just to keep up with retirements. It will be even worse at USAirways/AMR.

 

[Smarta$$]

Thanks! can you open up some space in your private messages?

 

[Andy]

I'm currently working in Hong Kong, and there are many of the carriers around the region as much as doubling their previous packages to try and draw in talent. I'm not saying the title wave is coming, but there are signs.

box

Thanks for the datapoint. And I don't think that Asian carriers will suffer as badly as Middle Eastern carriers.

Having spent a lot of time in the Middle East part of the world (including in hotels such as the Ritz and 4 Seasons), I'm convinced that you have to be a total masochist to voluntarily live or work in that part of the world.

I'm sure that Mistress Zelda makes a ton of money off of EK, Qatar, and Gulf Air pilots who enjoy spending their free time in her dungeon.

The worst time of year to be there is during Ramalamadingdong where every Mosque in the region cranks their speakers up to full blast and broadcasts what can only be described as something similar to listening to a cat being tortured slowly. This goes on multiple times daily for what seems like an eternity. All day and night long.

 

[Andy]

Thanks! can you open up some space in your private messages?

Done. I deleted two messages; it keeps me from getting saturated with PMs.

 

[JetFumes]

First, I want to make sure you understand how stupid of a pilot (me) you're asking this question to. I had a JBLU interview the day after my UAL class started (June 2000) - I cancelled it. I had a Northwest interview offered halfway through UAL class, which I spent a lot of time debating on. Needless to say, either of those two choices would have put me in better shape than I am now.

If I were a JBLU guy, I'd rack and stack in the following manner:
1) USAirways/AMR
2) Delta
3) United
And I'd go to any of them over staying with JBLU.

Retirements alone will keep things moving at all three companies. There aren't nearly the number of retirement movement at JBLU compared to the big three.

I put USAirways/AMR number one because I have come to believe that Doug Parker and his team are the best in the business right now. I didn't used to feel that way, but if they can hold together a completely dysfunctional workforce and make record profits, I can only imagine how successful that team will be once the beaten down (and much larger) AMR workforce is thrown into the mix. The Easties will probably get a smackdown but the company will likely be firing on all cylinders within 2-3 years.

I like Delta's management but they haven't been faced with the significant challenges that USAirways has dealt with.

United's management is really old Continental management; if you look at the resume of 20-some VPs at United, you'll see that 90% of them are from Continental. And quite frankly, they're living examples of the Peter Principle, except they've risen well above their level of competence. I was never impressed with old United management, but I have been shocked at how incompetent the current management is. The best way I can describe it is if the management of a chain of 20 gas stations took over running Exxon/Mobil.

United's poor management will eventually get resolved, but it will take some time. If we have two or three more mediocre quarters, I'd expect Smisek to be shown the door. He is unable to cultivate a talented management team and that's what's holding back United at the moment.

Keep in mind that management comes and goes but you can see how successful Southwest has been due to having a deep bench of management talent. All things considered, I think that USAirways' talent runs deeper than Delta and United.

United's product: It's improving, albeit slowly. We're WAY behind in having WiFi onboard and Smisek's team really screwed the pooch by going with a mostly two class international configuration. And the RJs are hated by United's best customers - most would rather have a city pair frequency reduction than have to be stuffed into a 50 or 70 seater (I talk to enough elites to understand what bothers them). They absolutely need to have narrow gauged aircraft where a frequent flyer can put his rollaboard in the overhead.
One of the big things that United management continually drops the ball is cargo. They've replaced the 747 with 777s on routes that used to have 747s full of cargo at a nice profit. The 777 doesn't have the same capacity and the 787-8 is even worse than the 777. The 787-9 is similar to the 777-200 and the 787-10 is similar to the 747-400. Unfortunately, United has orders split fairly evenly between the three 787 variations ... and the only one rolling off the assembly line right now is the 787-8. United would have been MUCH smarter to take either 747s, 787s, or an Airbus product over the 787-8, as I think it will be one of those aircraft that will be incredibly difficult to make money flying. Or just waited for the 787-10.

As far as finances go between the airlines, I'm only going to analyze UAL vs Delta. These numbers are based on Q2 filings.
UAL had approximately $2 Billion more in cash/equivalents on their balance sheet.
Delta had approximately $1.8 Billion more in current liabilities on their balance sheet.
Delta had approximately $20 Billion more in long term liabilities/noncurrent debt on their balance sheet. A lot of that is due to pension liabilities; Delta has $15 Billion in pensions on the books vice $2 billion for United.

Another category on the balance sheet is goodwill - something I call worthless crap. Link: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/goodwill.asp
Delta has $9.8 Billion in goodwill on the balance sheet while United has $4.5 Billion. Goodwill is counted on the balance sheet as an asset, but it has no real value - it's just a bookkeeping exercise.

So between United and Delta, United has a stronger balance sheet in multiple areas. I don't know how USAirways/AMR's balance sheet will look but I suspect that it'll be fairly clean after AMR emerges from Chap 11.

All three airlines have a ton of retirements in the near term, something you won't see at JBLU. For that reason, I think you'll see much faster advancement at any of the three. And a choice of what type of flying you prefer - long haul vs short haul, domestic vs international.


Aircraft orders: We pilots make way too much of a deal about aircraft orders. UAL, DAL, and AMR can jump to the front of the line when they place orders because Boeing and Airbus are going to do their best to make their biggest customers happy.

As far as the Bombardier CS100 and 300, I don't see much difference in seating capacity between them and A319/320 or 737-700. I would think it would be better to have less aircraft types but knowing United management, they'll probably go with the CS since it's new and its performance is unknown. Maybe it can be nicknamed lil sparky.


As far as your question about current hiring. UAL is severely understaffed and will be further understaffed with FAR 117. They also need to fill a training pipeline with all of the retirements. A single 777 captain retirement creates half a dozen training events. Think of it this way - United will need 500 or so pilots constantly in training just to keep up with retirements. It will be even worse at USAirways/AMR.

Great info! Would you leave jblu if you were a left seat guy?

 

[Flyer1015]

Keep in mind that in the next 5 years, 2014-2018 inclusive, United retires a little over 2000 pilots, Delta about 1200, and AA only 900ish. Something else to keep in mind for the shorter run.

 

[Andy]

Great info! Would you leave jblu if you were a left seat guy?

On the Airbus? That'd make it a hard decision. Also, how many retirements in front of you if you're on the Airbus. I'd make the jump if I were on the E190.

 

[boxjockey]

Hey guys. Quick question. Just got an email from United about my ATP, saying that they only accept unrestricted ATP. I earned my ATP back in 2005, while obtaining my type to be a captain at CoEx. I looked it up on the pilot database, and there are no restrictions there other than e-145 vmc circling only. I also read the regs, and I am way above the hourly requirements set out in there. Anyway, it just says to update my info if I hold an unrestricted ATP. Has anyone else gotten this? Now I'm freaked, probably over nothing!!

box

 

[SIG600]

Hey guys. Quick question. Just got an email from United about my ATP, saying that they only accept unrestricted ATP. I earned my ATP back in 2005, while obtaining my type to be a captain at CoEx. I looked it up on the pilot database, and there are no restrictions there other than e-145 vmc circling only. I also read the regs, and I am way above the hourly requirements set out in there. Anyway, it just says to update my info if I hold an unrestricted ATP. Has anyone else gotten this? Now I'm freaked, probably over nothing!!

box

I got the email too. My understanding is if it was restricted, it would say it on the back of your ticket.

 

[Avpilot]

Hey guys. Quick question. Just got an email from United about my ATP, saying that they only accept unrestricted ATP. I earned my ATP back in 2005, while obtaining my type to be a captain at CoEx. I looked it up on the pilot database, and there are no restrictions there other than e-145 vmc circling only. I also read the regs, and I am way above the hourly requirements set out in there. Anyway, it just says to update my info if I hold an unrestricted ATP. Has anyone else gotten this? Now I'm freaked, probably over nothing!!

box

I received the same e-mail this morning. I'm thinking it is just a form e-mail sent out to all United applicants. My ATPL is unrestricted yet I received the e-mail. I think you're ok. Good luck!

Tim