United question.

[Smarta$$]

Are any of the 737s on order for growth, or are they all replacement?

Another question, half of UAL (and all legacies) departures every day are on RJs. I have no love for regional airlines, but it is a large part of UALs traffic and feeds people onto the mainline jets. My question is, what is the the plan when those regionals start parking planes due to lack of pilots?

 

[pianoman]

1. Replacement
2. None that I've heard

 

[Andy]

Smarta$$, a large part of the reason why RJs have grown so much is due to additional frequency between city pairs. Should the RJ subcontractors be unable to provide enough departures, I would expect to see upguaging coupled with frequency reduction.
3 50 seaters ~ 2 70 seaters
1 50 seater + 1 70 seater ~ 1 A320
etc

Do you think that there'll be a shortage of pilots anytime soon? I think we'll see foreign airlines being forced to raise salaries before there's a shortage of regional pilots.

 

[Smarta$$]

Smarta$$, a large part of the reason why RJs have grown so much is due to additional frequency between city pairs. Should the RJ subcontractors be unable to provide enough departures, I would expect to see upguaging coupled with frequency reduction.
3 50 seaters ~ 2 70 seaters
1 50 seater + 1 70 seater ~ 1 A320
etc

Do you think that there'll be a shortage of pilots anytime soon? I think we'll see foreign airlines being forced to raise salaries before there's a shortage of regional pilots.

Shortage at the regionals in the next couple years? Probably

As for upgauging, I would think all the larger 70 seaters are already being used to the maximum, and if they want to replace 50 seaters with 73s or the 320s, they would need to buy more of them. That is partly why I asked if any of the 737 order was for growth.

 

[Andy]

Shortage at the regionals in the next couple years? Probably

As for upgauging, I would think all the larger 70 seaters are already being used to the maximum, and if they want to replace 50 seaters with 73s or the 320s, they would need to buy more of them. That is partly why I asked if any of the 737 order was for growth.

The last fleet plan was published in the 25 July investor update. For 2013, it showed a net decrease of 10 mainline aircraft. The plan called for parking 23 757s, 5 767s, and an increase of 3 787s and 15 737s. At the same time, it called for an increase of 25 regional jets.

United could slow down parking 757s and 767s, but I think that almost all of the 737s on order now are -900s. I'm not impressed with the fleet plan because there aren't any replacement mainline aircraft on order smaller than the 737-900.

You can find the information on this page: http://ir.unitedcontinentalholdings.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=83680&p=irol-IRHome
Go to the Investor Updates tab and it'll give you quite a few financial metrics. The latest update (26 Sep) didn't include an updated fleet plan so I assume the 25 July one is still in effect.

 

[stillflyn]

There are some rumors around about UAL putting in an order for a 100 seat airplane to be flown by UAL pilots. Just a rumor right now.

 

[Smarta$$]

And the company saying hiring will go to 60-100 per month indefinitely? With only 400 retirements next year, what will they do with all the extra new-hires?

 

[Jetjockey]

there are some rumors around about ual putting in an order for a 100 seat airplane to be flown by ual pilots. Just a rumor right now.

cs300

 

[Smarta$$]

The last fleet plan was published in the 25 July investor update. For 2013, it showed a net decrease of 10 mainline aircraft. The plan called for parking 23 757s, 5 767s, and an increase of 3 787s and 15 737s. At the same time, it called for an increase of 25 regional jets.

United could slow down parking 757s and 767s, but I think that almost all of the 737s on order now are -900s. I'm not impressed with the fleet plan because there aren't any replacement mainline aircraft on order smaller than the 737-900.

You can find the information on this page: http://ir.unitedcontinentalholdings.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=83680&p=irol-IRHome
Go to the Investor Updates tab and it'll give you quite a few financial metrics. The latest update (26 Sep) didn't include an updated fleet plan so I assume the 25 July one is still in effect.

Hey Andy, would you recommend a JB guy to look at UAL?

Are they making significant product and service improvements? Do you think UAL management is playing to win (actually running an airline well) right now?

I think you are a numbers guy if I remember correctly, how would you characterize United's finances compared to DL, AA, and JB?

I have been at JB a little over 2 years. I generally like it. I am about 15% off the the bottom and have been increasing seniority here at about 6% annually. They say a 15-25% raise is coming for Jan 1st here, might happen, might not. Our retirement is currently 13% with no profit sharing...

Any insights?

Smart

 

[boxjockey]

Smarta$$, a large part of the reason why RJs have grown so much is due to additional frequency between city pairs. Should the RJ subcontractors be unable to provide enough departures, I would expect to see upguaging coupled with frequency reduction.
3 50 seaters ~ 2 70 seaters
1 50 seater + 1 70 seater ~ 1 A320
etc

Do you think that there'll be a shortage of pilots anytime soon? I think we'll see foreign airlines being forced to raise salaries before there's a shortage of regional pilots.

I'm currently working in Hong Kong, and there are many of the carriers around the region as much as doubling their previous packages to try and draw in talent. I'm not saying the title wave is coming, but there are signs.

box