United or American?

[UALjan15]

Meaningful long term factors (in order of importance):
Retirement picture
Where in the hiring wave you are in
Domiciles
Financial health/debt load
Company culture
Scope protections
Long term/lingering legal battles, especially in pilot group

Factors NOT to base a career decision on:
Current pay
Current management
Contract perks
Advice from buddies
Advice gleaned from FI!

To the OP's question, AA wins out on retirement picture, and it is not even close. Position in hiring wave should be good for both. I can't evaluate some of the other factors without some research. Culture is crap at both, DAL wins here hands down. Tough to tell how SLI comes out at AA, but UAL's result seems cleaner than what AA is likely to end up with. Domiciles are personal preference, but to me, I would predict more hub shifting at AA than UAL (just using common sense here).

 

[DCAA320]

Have you flown either lately? Both are miserable, but I'd put money on American.

Maybe it's you.

 

[Trogdor]

AA and US have hired less than 200 combined in the last 10 years, while united (cal) and delta have hired thousands.

Not even close. I'm an early '08 US newbie and I have roughly 450 guys below me.

 

[Flybywire44]

Not even close. I'm an early '08 US newbie and I have roughly 450 guys below me.

July 2011 hires have just over 400 below them.

 

[aa73]

There is plenty of overlap. Just because there are not nonstop flights that overlap doesn't mean there is no overlap. Also, I can't see how PHX stays the same size. See Cincy and Cleveland. All the gaps in Asia can be handled through JAl and CX. Gaps in the Middle East can be handled through Qatar. I'm not saying it won't be a great career but I just don't see more pilots needed.

That may have been true under the old management (Carty, Arpey, Horton) who were on a mission to shrink the airline into oblivion and let all the code shares do the work. A sure path to Ch 7, in other words. That concept has never, and will never work, in today's airlines.

To capitalize on the benefits of this merger, AA will have to push itself into many new markets, using its own metal. We have shrunk far beyond the others and will be playing catch up for quite awhile. Parker plans to do just that, plus he has mentioned more than a few times that he is not big on code shares.

Echoing what others said: go with the first one that hires you. Short term, you'll make a little more at UAL...long term, it'll be a wash. Seniority wise, I believe you'll rise quicker at AA simply due to the above, plus, I believe we have the highest # of retirements combined with a generally older pilot group.

If Parker plays his cards right, the new AA will be a great place to work. Hopeful...

 

[Green]

AA,

Have you ever worked for Dougie? Ask any AWA pilot how they feel about DP. He certainly will be much more concerned with cost control than expansion. Doug likes to do deals, synergize, trim costs, find efficiencies, and make himself a truck load of money in the process. All he ever talks about is reducing capacity across the industry to re-introduce pricing power. He's about as far away from the traditional growth minded airline CEO as you can get. I hope he makes a big departure from his past and tries to grow the new AA but I'm guessing he will do some pruning.

AA claims they want to hire 1,500 pilots over the next five years. Adding the AA and LCC retirement numbers together it looks like there are about 1,900 mandatory retirements. Factor in another 10% for early outs due to medical or whatever and you are looking at 1,500 newhires to replace 2,100 pilots leaving. Looks about right to me. I'm guessing Doug will use new work rules to increase productivity about 15% and will cut capacity about 10-15%.

 

[aa73]

Green,

No, I have never worked for him. I'm just posting what I think will happen in order to realize the full benefits of the merger.

My personal opinion about Parker is pretty much in line with what you said. However, I think he was limited in what he could do with USAirways: they were basically a niche airline, stuck between a legacy and a LCC, pretty much squeezed out by UAL/DL above them and SWA/JB amongst them. There was only so much growth he could accomplish, and when that capped out, he went down the concessions route.

The new AA will be a whole different animal. Parker will no longer be limited as he was with US. He will have tremendous growth potential and not be limited in what he can do. He will have the opportunity to do what Delta did. In order to do that, however, he will have to put his employees first (as delta did.)

Basically, We're counting on the fact that we haven't really seen the "true" Doug Parker, who was limited in what he could do at US, but won't be at the new AA. As always I'm somewhat skeptical given his past, but cautiously optimistic that maybe, just maybe, he will capitalize on his opportunities here and put his employees first.

A note regarding hiring. AA has ALWAYS deliberately understated hiring numbers for their own reasons. If they announce 1500 over five years, you can pretty much double that number. I'm counting on 2500-300 at least. So any increased work rules/productivity will be more than offset by the hiring. I don't foresee very much capacity cutting, if at all.

 

[AeroDMB]

Green,

No, I have never worked for him. I'm just posting what I think will happen in order to realize the full benefits of the merger.

My personal opinion about Parker is pretty much in line with what you said. However, I think he was limited in what he could do with USAirways: they were basically a niche airline, stuck between a legacy and a LCC, pretty much squeezed out by UAL/DL above them and SWA/JB amongst them. There was only so much growth he could accomplish, and when that capped out, he went down the concessions route.

The new AA will be a whole different animal. Parker will no longer be limited as he was with US. He will have tremendous growth potential and not be limited in what he can do. He will have the opportunity to do what Delta did. In order to do that, however, he will have to put his employees first (as delta did.)

Basically, We're counting on the fact that we haven't really seen the "true" Doug Parker, who was limited in what he could do at US, but won't be at the new AA. As always I'm somewhat skeptical given his past, but cautiously optimistic that maybe, just maybe, he will capitalize on his opportunities here and put his employees first.

A note regarding hiring. AA has ALWAYS deliberately understated hiring numbers for their own reasons. If they announce 1500 over five years, you can pretty much double that number. I'm counting on 2500-300 at least. So any increased work rules/productivity will be more than offset by the hiring. I don't foresee very much capacity cutting, if at all.[/QUOTE

Exactly. Delta even stated hiring 300 pilots this year but everyone knows it's well north of that.

 

[Green]

Basically, We're counting on the fact that we haven't really seen the "true" Doug Parker, who was limited in what he could do at US, but won't be at the new AA. As always I'm somewhat skeptical given his past, but cautiously optimistic that maybe, just maybe, he will capitalize on his opportunities here and put his employees first.
.

Employees first? lol Doug Parker is Lorenzo in Khakis with a Dr Pepper in hand.

 

[airgator]

No way PHX stays the same size