United and Continental Talking....

[whatitdoing?]

I really don't think any furloughs will happen. Of the 1000 pilots on furlough at United, I bet most will bypass. Continental is hiring like crazy for a reason. They have a huge amount of pilots retiring and some expansion coming pretty soon. Even if the age 60 rule changes, most will take the option to retire early. Continental might slow hiring until things settle down, but I doubt it. I think it's all just preliminary talks about the possible merger between USAir and Delta. Both United and Continental just want to get their ducks in a row. Even if they merge....no big deal

 

[iluvetops]

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[skid]

No way! Didn't you read the "facts" in the APAAD release? There's a shortage of airline pilots!

Thats why there are so many guys still furloughed.
I am one of them have a hard time finding anything that will not result in a 66% pay cut from what i made before.

 

[Andy]

United retirements

Based on the 7 July 06 seniority list; a total of 8655 pilots on the list
2006 141
2007 263
2008 234
2009 231
2010 201
2011 167
2012 228
2013 245
2014 237
2015 270
2016 331
2017 307
2018 381
2019 355
2020 463
2021 506
2022 506
2023 575
2024 574
2025 538
2026 560
2027 408
2028 300
2029 226
2030 153

These numbers will decrease once all recalls are complete, since some will not be returning to United. Of course, the overall seniority list also shrinks.

OK, I've shown you mine; show me yours.

 

[Flopgut]

UALfurloughee: A CAL/UAL merger would go pretty clean and may not furlough any pilot even if 65 does pass. There would be [very] short term flux, but in a matter of months the combintion would have an urgent need for pilots. Minimum staffing is in place at both airlines right now with UAL recalling, and CAL hiring. CAL's frozen A plan offers retirees a 100% lump sum. That payout is based on the GATT rate which is going to move with the federal funds rate. It's going to drive the lump sums down to a point where age 60+ CAL flying will be a progressive paycut. Lot's of motivation for the near term CAL pilots to continue to retire.

Bethune once said that a CAL/UAL merger was a "checkmate"; A perfect airline combination. Probably is true. The biggest problem we have is the DOJ blocking it. Second problem is NWA's golden share blocking it. Frankly, it would be nice to merge all three (NWA/UAL/CAL).

 

[Flopgut]

CAL retires:

05: 159
06: 250
07: 320
08: 245
09: 217
10: 209
11: 219
12: 220
13: 195
14: 203
15: 170
16-20: 848
20-25: 743

 

[Andy]

Frankly, it would be nice to merge all three (NWA/UAL/CAL).

That would be too much overlap in the Pacific.

AWA/USAirways was a good fit.
UAL/CAL is a good fit.
NWA/DAL is a good fit.

I don't see a UAL/CAL merger happening unless NWA merges and gives up its veto power over any CAL merge.

 

[RocketRob]

Here's what I could find for CAL's retirement numbers

2007: 313
2008: 241
2009: 215
2010: 209
2011: 218
2012: 218
2013: 191
2014: 202
2015: 171
2016: 189
2017: 180
2018: 179
2019: 151
2020: 146
2021: 151
2022: 150
2023: 178
2024: 125
2025: 135
2026: 103
2027: 82
2028: 88
2029: 85
2030: 58
2031: 29
2032: 19
2033: 8

as one can see, were in peak retirement mode in 2007 =)

 

[Flopgut]

That would be too much overlap in the Pacific.

AWA/USAirways was a good fit.
UAL/CAL is a good fit.
NWA/DAL is a good fit.

I don't see a UAL/CAL merger happening unless NWA merges and gives up its veto power over any CAL merge.

Yeah, I agree. I think the DOJ is a bigger stumbling block. If they would approve it, pay NWA whatever they want or bring them along. Can't hate any NWA guys; Good airline savagely demoralized. They are going to act pretty hard on this golden share thing (as they should), but I think the employees would sooner swap it for a new working reality than just use it to block something.

Occam: If seniority was honored, wouldn't you rather have new "weasels"?

 

[densoo]

Houston Chronicle, 13 Dec

Selected excerpts...

Any pairing involving Continental would likely require that Continental be the buyer, which would prevent Northwest from having a say.

The analyst said in an interview Tuesday that Continental "would make a tremendous partner with United if they could pull it off."

When it comes to a merger between Continental and United, one key is whether Tilton would take his "pile of non-cash compensation" and turn the airline over to Continental, King wrote in his recent report.

"Continental management is on a roll right now, so it is hard to imagine the board throwing its management team under the bus," he wrote.

Richard Rose, a shareholder at Buchanan Ingersoll, who focuses on mergers and acquisitions, said Tuesday that he would expect Delta and Northwest to get together before US Airways and Delta.

"I would think it would be an easy deal to accomplish," Rose said.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/4398316.html