What is the latest projection for upgrade at NJ
That will depend on who you talk to.
I spoke with another NJA pilot (2 yr FO) that thinks it will be another year for upgrade.
I'm about 15 months and think it will be around year 3 to 4 from date of hire.
I've seen a lot of predictions of earlier dates. Forget it, it's only setting folks up for dissapointment. Get in right now and it will likely be 3-5 (depends on many factors of course).
For those that get in down the road just bit, it's going to be a long road to travel (especially if you're far from your domicile). I've stated it here before, that Mr. Santulli has voiced his desire to not grow beyond a 5000 pilot force. That means anyone after about 3000+ on the list will not upgrade through growth, but only through attrition. With the ability to work until you can't pass a medical and the fact that the pilot force is on average fairly young, the turnover at the top will likely be low.
I've also stated that domiciles won't be the big issue down the road that they are now. There are a number of folks hired just after ratification that were given wrong info regarding the domicile issue. They have some real heartache with it, but anyone walking through the door today that doesn't have the facts can only blame themselves. My point being that pay will be the issue, not domiciles. FO pay tops in the upper 40's. Who want's to look at that for the long term if you're coming in on the tail end of this? It will likely become a stepping stone job for those bringing up the rear.
Food for thought.