The Upcoming Structural Pilot Shortage is REAL - merged

[pilotyip]

ground fog, stop dealing in reality this is a pilot board.

 

[IFollowRoads]

I'm seeing all kinds of "part time *insert type* PIC wanted, current PC, 5000tt 2500 turbine" type ads popping up in the pubs these days. How many of you 5000tt guys are willing to take a part time job when you have a current type rating and PC in a jet? Who is taking these jobs? Are you ex military waiting for majors? Are you ex regional pilots? Are you retired from something else?

Part time bizjet captains... This is extra funny to me, since the outfit I'm doing flight training advertises regularly for full-time captains, and they pay good money too. I'd love to fly charter for them. So whats with this part timer stuff?

I'm beginning to wonder what in the world is going on out there. Are we that friggin desperate? Is this the future?

Nevermind. I just remembered all the people willing to pay $35,000 to ride right seat in RJ's. Forget I mentioned it.

I guess I'll go back to A&P work, until they perfect the cyborg mechanic.

 

[Amish RakeFight]

As automation increases the need for skill decreases.

As the need for skill decreases, wages naturally decrease.

As the wages decrease along with the minimum level of skills, less qualified individuals driven by advancement will increase.

Pay will not increase.

 

[IFollowRoads]

True, but the more automation increases the more disasterous things become when some of that automation fails.

Isn't THAT what we get paid for? Not for the normal flights, but for being ready to rise to the occasion when something abnormal happens?

 

[FlyingToIST]

I am a Software consultant. My Wife actually wants me to be a Pilot so I am home more. You guys think you travel much-I'm gone 25 days a month.

I am on the same boat with you. I was gone for 5+ days sometimes. Think about weekly SEA-YUL commutes.. I think with the pilot job i will be home more.

 

[BushwickBill]

Not happening

It would be great if corporate america needed to treat pilots better because they couldn't hire any but I dont think it's going to happen.

http://www.acinet.org/acinet/carout2.asp?SOC=532011&next=carout2&level=&optstatus=&id=1%2C&nodeid=210&soccode=&stfips=06&jobfam=53&x=57&y=10

 

[Gorilla]

As automation increases the need for skill decreases.

As the need for skill decreases, wages naturally decrease.

As the wages decrease along with the minimum level of skills, less qualified individuals driven by advancement will increase.

Pay will not increase.

Argh, this is a pet peeve of mine. We are supposed to be highly paid because of the responsibility we shoulder more than anything else. AND, we tend to sell ourselves short regarding the skills needed even on everyday operations.

Picture a physician on your jumpseat watching the sometimes frantic actions of the crew on arrival to a CAT I ILS minimum in rain. Routine for us. Most of our attention is focused on the approach; part of our minds are thinking about the layover, spouse issues, whatever. In the meantime, the doc would be intimidated and slackjawed. I've seen it, not with docs but with interns and other naive JS riders.

Now, we observe the surgeon doing his 10,000th appendectomy. Totally routine for him. He's probably thinking about his tee time that afternoon. Yet we'd stand there and go "Holy ----! That's intense. I wouldn't want to root around in some dude's abdomen with a scalpel."

If vigilance and superior pilot skills allow you to save one Boeing (likely to happen) from turning into a flaming ball in your entire career, you have paid your salary back 100 times over.

 

[ROJO]

I suspect you'll see some sort of shortage at the regional level, but not at the majors for a long, long time (if ever). The glory days of huge six-figure salaries and 20 days off per month will be gone forever. Economic realities will mandate extreme cost-cutting for the forseeable future, and labor is by far an airline's biggest expense.

 

[sqwkvfr]

Siucavflight,

With that attitude, you should probably just stick your head back in the sand. Everything ATP says is true. The world is reaching a point where oil production will probably begin to decline globally.

Oil production has been flat at 84 million barrels a day since the end of 2004.
33 of 48 countries according to Chevron have declining production, why can't the world start having declining production? The U.S. used to produce 10mbd, now they produce 7mbd. Prudhoe Bay used to produce 1.7 million barrels a day, now it produces .4mbd!!

Saudi Arabian production is down more than the ENTIRE PRUDHOE BAY productionin the last year(down from 9.5 million barrels a day to 9mbd). All of OPEC is down about 750 mbd from just two years ago! Nobody can increase production and most production is falling fast. I can go on and on.

Oil fields get old and peter out eventually. The world's oil fields are old and petering out and no new oil is being brought to market fast enough to replace the losses.

You should educate yourself, it's not the refineries.

We can turn coal to oil and jetfuel, it's just that it takes 3 years just to build one of the plants and the first ones are just being built. Every plant will only replace 1/1000th of our oil usage. Thank god we're starting now.

Oil prices are still low compared to what they'll be in the next couple years. Get used to it. Hopefully the economy can handle it as well.

Sorry please go back to the topic, I just had to defend ATP, because he knows a lot about what he is talking about.

Jet

I'm just curious....do you and ATP get together to design and build your tinfoil hats, or are you able to accomplish this via IMs or a chatroom?

Second question: Since you guys obviously seem to think the end of the world is near every time you see a lighting strike on the horizon, how much antacid do you go through in the average day?