The Upcoming Structural Pilot Shortage is REAL - merged

[Gofish]

Kit Darby?...Is that you?

 

[Photoflight]

So when should I expect my Citation X gig.........

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

No, it's not Kit.

It's Business Aviation Journal telling the business jet operators that they may have to start ab initio training to get the quality of pilots that they want down the road.

As I see it, the only thing stopping this process will be if we don't change over from using oil as a transportation fuel soon enough.

It looks like "peak oil" was last year, and if we can't quell demand fast enough to switch away from oil, all those jet/aircraft orders may go unfilled as the global economy goes into a tailspin, and 80% of us currently flying all lose our jobs.

The economists keep saying that as oil prices go up, the oil cos. will just find more oil, as if you can drill for oil anywhere and it will magically appear. In 2005 the oil cos. discovered less oil than any year since 1945, and, overall, they replaced about 10% of the oil they drilled with new finds.

cliff
ELP

 

[Photoflight]

when do i get my citation X or GV gig....im not picky

 

[Devil Dawg]

Yea, I smell Kit!!! There won't be a shortage for a few more years. I think the profession will have to be stripped of nearly all its value before we see a true shortage. We are not there yet but we are getting close. Would you recommend a family member get into this career feild? I don't think I would. The RJs are the new carrot on the end of the stick. A career RJ driver, is that good enough pay and benies to channel you efforts toward or would you be better off using your talents elsewhere? When we finally say elsewhere-- then and only then will there be a shortage.
On the other hand if it is your job to sell magazines or flight training then of course there will be a shortage of 747 international captain's earning $350,000 a year working 10 days a month. If you just take your training from me and buy my magazine you will be filling that position very soon!!
Best of luck to those optimistic enough to enter this profession. It will be a rocky road!

 

[siucavflight]

It looks like "peak oil" was last year, and if we can't quell demand fast enough to switch away from oil, all those jet/aircraft orders may go unfilled as the global economy goes into a tailspin, and 80% of us currently flying all lose our jobs.

Uh, Oh. You just lost all credibility with me.

 

[Flyby1206]

How many years has there been a pilot shortage predicted for the next year?? Forever!

 

[jetflyer]

Siucavflight,

With that attitude, you should probably just stick your head back in the sand. Everything ATP says is true. The world is reaching a point where oil production will probably begin to decline globally.

Oil production has been flat at 84 million barrels a day since the end of 2004.
33 of 48 countries according to Chevron have declining production, why can't the world start having declining production? The U.S. used to produce 10mbd, now they produce 7mbd. Prudhoe Bay used to produce 1.7 million barrels a day, now it produces .4mbd!!

Saudi Arabian production is down more than the ENTIRE PRUDHOE BAY productionin the last year(down from 9.5 million barrels a day to 9mbd). All of OPEC is down about 750 mbd from just two years ago! Nobody can increase production and most production is falling fast. I can go on and on.

Oil fields get old and peter out eventually. The world's oil fields are old and petering out and no new oil is being brought to market fast enough to replace the losses.

You should educate yourself, it's not the refineries.

We can turn coal to oil and jetfuel, it's just that it takes 3 years just to build one of the plants and the first ones are just being built. Every plant will only replace 1/1000th of our oil usage. Thank god we're starting now.

Oil prices are still low compared to what they'll be in the next couple years. Get used to it. Hopefully the economy can handle it as well.

Sorry please go back to the topic, I just had to defend ATP, because he knows a lot about what he is talking about.

Jet

 

[jetexas]

Hiring Departments will just lower the mins to meet their pilot supply needs.

 

[pilotyip]

Flight Dept's never lower standards, they redefine "Competitive Hiring Standards"

 

[GogglesPisano]

Simple economics. When pay goes up, then there will be evidence of a pilot shortage. Until then this is just trade-industry propaganda to induce young people to sign up to be cheap labor.

 

[pilotyip]

Pay has gone up, Pinnacle now pays during training. I know it is not much, but it a sign of a changing market.

 

[Vastly Underemp]

Man, I wish I could cash Kit Darby's paycheck!

There has NEVER, REPEAT NEVER been a pilot shortage of the pilot jobs we all want. Sure, if you want to make $*,000/year being a CFI, or 1*,000/year towing banners/flying pipeline/flying jumpers/fire and traffic spotting, be my guest. We all did it, and we all had to start somewhere. But the good paying, good schedule jobs have never had a shortage of applicants. When the majors start up again ('07 is a great bet, Yip) you'll see pilots coming out of the woodwork, just like every other hiring binge in the last 30 years. However, if you'd prefer, I could sell you some nice rosey glasses for only $129/year. I'll even send you a nice magazine.......

 

[pilotyip]

Vastly I agree there will never be an absolute pilot shortage. However as the Jun 2007 hiring binge starts, the pilot quality shortage will manifest itself in a redefinition of competitive minimums. This is just what we saw in pre 2000/2001, where 3,000-hour DA-20 pilots were hired at UAL, SWA, AirTran, etc.

 

[Andy]

Pilot Shortage???? HAH!

A long time ago, Bob Crandall was asked about pilot shortages. He said that it would never happen; they will simply adjust minimum hiring criteria to meet supply.
I can see a day when ab initio training returns to the majors ... where a newhire pilot is guaranteed a job making McDonald's wages.

 

[pilotyip]

McD's wages are great!!

McD's wages are great, one of my former CO's in the Navy Reserve worked at McD's, made over $100K/yr in the mid 80's, flew around as a passenger in back of thier G-something.

 

[Snakum]

This is just what we saw in pre 2000/2001, where 3,000-hour DA-20 pilots were hired at UAL, SWA, AirTran, etc.

I'm hoping for 1,000-hour Baron pilots being hired into DA-20 freighters. :beer:

 

[Andy]

McD's wages are great, one of my former CO's in the Navy Reserve worked at McD's, made over $100K/yr in the mid 80's, flew around as a passenger in back of thier G-something.

Ahh, must've been during the fry cook shortage back in the 80s. Amazing that fry cooks are no longer making $100k/yr; where did things go wrong for them?

http://www.ebaumsworld.com/flash/burgerking.html

 

[pilotyip]

He was is in McD's real estate dept, purchased land for building McD's

 

[B-J-J Fighter]

I have been reading YIPS prediction for a few yrs now, I'm starting to think he might be right.