GogglesPisano
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The Upcoming Structural Pilot Shortage is REAL - merged
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Vastly Underemp
Mr. Priapism
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Man, I wish I could cash Kit Darby's paycheck!
There has NEVER, REPEAT NEVER been a pilot shortage of the pilot jobs we all want. Sure, if you want to make $*,000/year being a CFI, or 1*,000/year towing banners/flying pipeline/flying jumpers/fire and traffic spotting, be my guest. We all did it, and we all had to start somewhere. But the good paying, good schedule jobs have never had a shortage of applicants. When the majors start up again ('07 is a great bet, Yip) you'll see pilots coming out of the woodwork, just like every other hiring binge in the last 30 years. However, if you'd prefer, I could sell you some nice rosey glasses for only $129/year. I'll even send you a nice magazine.......
There has NEVER, REPEAT NEVER been a pilot shortage of the pilot jobs we all want. Sure, if you want to make $*,000/year being a CFI, or 1*,000/year towing banners/flying pipeline/flying jumpers/fire and traffic spotting, be my guest. We all did it, and we all had to start somewhere. But the good paying, good schedule jobs have never had a shortage of applicants. When the majors start up again ('07 is a great bet, Yip) you'll see pilots coming out of the woodwork, just like every other hiring binge in the last 30 years. However, if you'd prefer, I could sell you some nice rosey glasses for only $129/year. I'll even send you a nice magazine.......
pilotyip
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Vastly I agree there will never be an absolute pilot shortage. However as the Jun 2007 hiring binge starts, the pilot quality shortage will manifest itself in a redefinition of competitive minimums. This is just what we saw in pre 2000/2001, where 3,000-hour DA-20 pilots were hired at UAL, SWA, AirTran, etc.
Pilot Shortage???? HAH!
A long time ago, Bob Crandall was asked about pilot shortages. He said that it would never happen; they will simply adjust minimum hiring criteria to meet supply.
I can see a day when ab initio training returns to the majors ... where a newhire pilot is guaranteed a job making McDonald's wages.
A long time ago, Bob Crandall was asked about pilot shortages. He said that it would never happen; they will simply adjust minimum hiring criteria to meet supply.
I can see a day when ab initio training returns to the majors ... where a newhire pilot is guaranteed a job making McDonald's wages.
pilotyip said:
Ahh, must've been during the fry cook shortage back in the 80s. Amazing that fry cooks are no longer making $100k/yr; where did things go wrong for them?
http://www.ebaumsworld.com/flash/burgerking.html
B-J-J Fighter
Royce Gracie in Action
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b757driver
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Be Very Careful What You Wish For.....
Ask a veteran:.......
The glory days are over
BY BARRY SCHIFF (From AOPA Pilot, June 2006.)
Barry Schiff retired from TWA in 1998 after a 34-year career with the airline.
[SIZE=+2]I have been agonizing over the topic of this column for a few years, not knowing if I should publicly air my personal thoughts. Not to do so, I finally concluded, would be intellectually dishonest. So at the risk of attracting flak, here goes.
I was hired as a pilot by Trans World Airlines in 1964. This was during the glamour years that began after World War II. Airline salaries were rising, working conditions improved with every contract renewal, and airline pilots earned approval and respect from every quarter. On international flights, airline pilots were treated like royalty.
No one working for Pan American World Airways or TWA during this period could possibly have anticipated the demise of their airlines. These were cultural icons of the twentieth century. At one time, TWA's logo was the second most recognizable in the world (Coca-Cola's was the first).
The death knell for this era sounded on October 24, 1978, when President Jimmy Carter signed the Airline Deregulation Act. The merits and demerits of deregulation aside, the long-term result for pilots was etched in stone. There would be an erosion of wages, working conditions, pensions, and job security.
Things got worse after the terrorist attacks of 9/11. Because of the need for additional security, airline pilots are locked in their cockpits behind bulletproof doors and suffer the indignity of coordinating trips to the lavatory with flight attendants.
The glory years are gone.
I could not have been prouder when my son Brian was hired by TWA in 1989. Although conditions had declined since the airlines were deregulated, being an airline pilot was still a great job. He upgraded to captain on the Boeing 727 11 years later. Although thrilled to be in the left seat of a jetliner for a major carrier, he worked harder and earned a smaller salary than I did many years previously.
TWA was assimilated by American Airlines in 2001. During the next two years Brian went from left seat to right seat to the street. He had been furloughed and eventually found a job flying Learjets for a Part 135 operator. He now flies as captain of a Canadair Regional Jet for a commuter carrier.
Like thousands of others who have been furloughed from the majors, he has no idea when he will be recalled. Considering that American is reducing its need for pilots by contractual increases in pilot productivity and outsourcing many of its shorter, thinner routes to commuter carriers, it could be many years before Brian again sees an American Airlines' flight deck. Another of my sons, Paul, began to satisfy his desire to become an airline pilot in 2000 when he was hired by Trans States Airline, a company that operated TWExpress, US Airways Express, and AmericanConnection. Paul bounced between all three and discovered after 9/11 that he was not making headway in accruing seniority.
After four domicile changes, he opted to leave Trans States and obtain a more promising position with United Express. He worked there for three years, during which he had as many changes in domicile, and discovered that the most he had earned after six years as a commuter pilot was less than $30,000 per year. He again foresaw little potential for a career like I had and with great mental anguish opted to change professions.
Paul recently started a pet-supply company , gets to spend every night in his own bed, and has an opportunity to develop a social life. As an airline pilot gone from home 21 days a month, he had little opportunity to meet someone with whom he might like to share a future. When he did meet someone, he had neither the time nor the money for dating.
Paul says, "It is relatively easy to get a job with a commuter carrier, but not because these carriers are losing pilots to the majors; they are not. The attrition rate at the regional level is high because so many pilots reach their limits of endurance and quit. They find it too difficult to live on starvation wages [especially those with families]. There usually was nothing left in my wallet after shelling out for commuting and crash-pad expenses."
Although these are anecdotal experiences, my frank and personal discussions with numerous other airline pilots corroborate my feelings about the state of the airline industry. I can no longer encourage aspiring airline pilots without first ensuring that they understand the treacherous and daunting journeys typically required to reach for such lofty goals.
Do not misunderstand. Coping with the challenges of weather, communing with nature in a way that only pilots can appreciate, and maneuvering a sophisticated aircraft from one place on Earth to another remains a stimulating and gratifying endeavor (although I think it was more fun with less automation). It is the price one must pay to get there that is so discouraging.
I frequently am asked for advice about becoming an airline pilot. The best advice I can offer those determined to endure the rigorous hardships often required is to simultaneously develop a sideline vocation that can be used in case of emergency. A pilot should never get into a position that is totally dependent on income from an airline.
Does the end justify the means? Does becoming a captain for a major airline justify all that must be endured to get there? Perhaps, but surviving long enough to get there is the problem.[/SIZE]
__._,_.___
JediNein said:
Ask a veteran:.......
The glory days are over
BY BARRY SCHIFF (From AOPA Pilot, June 2006.)
Barry Schiff retired from TWA in 1998 after a 34-year career with the airline.
[SIZE=+2]I have been agonizing over the topic of this column for a few years, not knowing if I should publicly air my personal thoughts. Not to do so, I finally concluded, would be intellectually dishonest. So at the risk of attracting flak, here goes.
I was hired as a pilot by Trans World Airlines in 1964. This was during the glamour years that began after World War II. Airline salaries were rising, working conditions improved with every contract renewal, and airline pilots earned approval and respect from every quarter. On international flights, airline pilots were treated like royalty.
No one working for Pan American World Airways or TWA during this period could possibly have anticipated the demise of their airlines. These were cultural icons of the twentieth century. At one time, TWA's logo was the second most recognizable in the world (Coca-Cola's was the first).
The death knell for this era sounded on October 24, 1978, when President Jimmy Carter signed the Airline Deregulation Act. The merits and demerits of deregulation aside, the long-term result for pilots was etched in stone. There would be an erosion of wages, working conditions, pensions, and job security.
Things got worse after the terrorist attacks of 9/11. Because of the need for additional security, airline pilots are locked in their cockpits behind bulletproof doors and suffer the indignity of coordinating trips to the lavatory with flight attendants.
The glory years are gone.
I could not have been prouder when my son Brian was hired by TWA in 1989. Although conditions had declined since the airlines were deregulated, being an airline pilot was still a great job. He upgraded to captain on the Boeing 727 11 years later. Although thrilled to be in the left seat of a jetliner for a major carrier, he worked harder and earned a smaller salary than I did many years previously.
TWA was assimilated by American Airlines in 2001. During the next two years Brian went from left seat to right seat to the street. He had been furloughed and eventually found a job flying Learjets for a Part 135 operator. He now flies as captain of a Canadair Regional Jet for a commuter carrier.
Like thousands of others who have been furloughed from the majors, he has no idea when he will be recalled. Considering that American is reducing its need for pilots by contractual increases in pilot productivity and outsourcing many of its shorter, thinner routes to commuter carriers, it could be many years before Brian again sees an American Airlines' flight deck. Another of my sons, Paul, began to satisfy his desire to become an airline pilot in 2000 when he was hired by Trans States Airline, a company that operated TWExpress, US Airways Express, and AmericanConnection. Paul bounced between all three and discovered after 9/11 that he was not making headway in accruing seniority.
After four domicile changes, he opted to leave Trans States and obtain a more promising position with United Express. He worked there for three years, during which he had as many changes in domicile, and discovered that the most he had earned after six years as a commuter pilot was less than $30,000 per year. He again foresaw little potential for a career like I had and with great mental anguish opted to change professions.
Paul recently started a pet-supply company , gets to spend every night in his own bed, and has an opportunity to develop a social life. As an airline pilot gone from home 21 days a month, he had little opportunity to meet someone with whom he might like to share a future. When he did meet someone, he had neither the time nor the money for dating.
Paul says, "It is relatively easy to get a job with a commuter carrier, but not because these carriers are losing pilots to the majors; they are not. The attrition rate at the regional level is high because so many pilots reach their limits of endurance and quit. They find it too difficult to live on starvation wages [especially those with families]. There usually was nothing left in my wallet after shelling out for commuting and crash-pad expenses."
Although these are anecdotal experiences, my frank and personal discussions with numerous other airline pilots corroborate my feelings about the state of the airline industry. I can no longer encourage aspiring airline pilots without first ensuring that they understand the treacherous and daunting journeys typically required to reach for such lofty goals.
Do not misunderstand. Coping with the challenges of weather, communing with nature in a way that only pilots can appreciate, and maneuvering a sophisticated aircraft from one place on Earth to another remains a stimulating and gratifying endeavor (although I think it was more fun with less automation). It is the price one must pay to get there that is so discouraging.
I frequently am asked for advice about becoming an airline pilot. The best advice I can offer those determined to endure the rigorous hardships often required is to simultaneously develop a sideline vocation that can be used in case of emergency. A pilot should never get into a position that is totally dependent on income from an airline.
Does the end justify the means? Does becoming a captain for a major airline justify all that must be endured to get there? Perhaps, but surviving long enough to get there is the problem.[/SIZE]
__._,_.___
Photoflight
AIR rAMBO
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Here you guys go....from the man himself Kit Darby. Now...lets make it a game. Who can read between the lines and tell me what these paragraphs really mean to professional pilots.
Independence Air is going out of business today, most of the big airlines are in bankruptcy or close to it and thousands of airline pilots have been furloughed, but the job market for pilots hasn't looked this good in five years. Kit Darby, who runs Air, Inc., a publishing company that tracks pilot employment, says more than 10,000 jobs will open up this year. He said experienced pilots looking for work can probably find it but a few of them might need an attitude adjustment. "Whatever it is, you just have to get over it," said Darby. "Then you've got to get yourself up and get back to the marketplace. There are a lot of quality jobs out there." Darby said there are a lot of unemployed pilots who have a hard time taking a pay cut, a smaller airplane or a demotion but he urges them to look at the larger picture. Just about any steady flying job is going to pay more and be more satisfying (to a pilot) than just about any other type of career. He said he's had numerous clients that have left the industry in disgust, become successful at something else and then come back begging for a flying job. "It's a lifestyle. It's not just a job," he said.
[FONT=arial,helvetica,geneva]Where To Look[/FONT]
Most of the new hires are with regional airlines, fractional operators and charters, which, despite the widely publicized problems of the big airlines, are, according to Darby, doing just fine, thank you. "They're growing, they're profitable and they're hiring," he said. But it's not only the bottom half of the market that's looking for pilots. Darby said Continental and Alaska Airlines are both in the market and freight carriers like UPS and FedEx have been unscathed by recent downturns by big iron operators. While it's true that wages are being cut and pension plans restructured, Darby said they're still a pretty good deal. Despite the rollbacks, the average top salary for airline pilots is $168,000 a year and for cargo pilots it's $193,000. (Good luck at the negotiating table.) While some pension funds are in well-publicized trouble, others are fully funded and will supply a secure retirement for thousands of pilots. Others are being replaced by new types of plans based on profit-sharing and 401(k) contributions. "Some of the replacement plans are pretty good," Darby said.
[FONT=arial,helvetica,geneva]Jobs: The Long Term Outlook[/FONT]
And while such unpredictable events such as 9/11, SARS or even avian flu could sewer the industry again, if things keep on a reasonably even keel, there should be above-average hiring for years to come, according to Darby. That's because over the next 10 years, tens of thousands of airline pilots will hit the mandatory retirement age of 60. However, there are about 9,600 fully qualified pilots currently on furlough and if they start pounding the pavement, how are young, inexperienced pilots supposed to compete? The key word is enthusiasm. "Airlines don't hire the best people, they never have," he said. "They hire people they like." He said a lot of old hands resent having to go through the interview process and may be broadcasting negative vibes loud and clear. An eager, respectful and enthusiastic pilot, even if he or she has less experience, is going to look better to the recruiter.
Independence Air is going out of business today, most of the big airlines are in bankruptcy or close to it and thousands of airline pilots have been furloughed, but the job market for pilots hasn't looked this good in five years. Kit Darby, who runs Air, Inc., a publishing company that tracks pilot employment, says more than 10,000 jobs will open up this year. He said experienced pilots looking for work can probably find it but a few of them might need an attitude adjustment. "Whatever it is, you just have to get over it," said Darby. "Then you've got to get yourself up and get back to the marketplace. There are a lot of quality jobs out there." Darby said there are a lot of unemployed pilots who have a hard time taking a pay cut, a smaller airplane or a demotion but he urges them to look at the larger picture. Just about any steady flying job is going to pay more and be more satisfying (to a pilot) than just about any other type of career. He said he's had numerous clients that have left the industry in disgust, become successful at something else and then come back begging for a flying job. "It's a lifestyle. It's not just a job," he said.
[FONT=arial,helvetica,geneva]Where To Look[/FONT]
pilotyip
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The Truth and nothing but the truth
photo, it is the truth, maybe as Jack Nicholson said in a Few Good Men, "You can't stand the truth" I don't see anything in the post that does not reflect reality of today's job market. The worldwide pilot shortage is real, and it is growing in the US. The signs on the lower end of the hiring chain are having trouble finding qualiifed pilots
photo, it is the truth, maybe as Jack Nicholson said in a Few Good Men, "You can't stand the truth" I don't see anything in the post that does not reflect reality of today's job market. The worldwide pilot shortage is real, and it is growing in the US. The signs on the lower end of the hiring chain are having trouble finding qualiifed pilots
Last edited:
ultrarunner said:
Heyas,
I disagree here. There will never be more money. If even if the mythical shortage DOES materialize (ahahahahah, ahahhahahah whoooahahhahaha, oh, oh <snif>), the airlines will just run crying to the administration that "we can't find the people" and institute an H-2 visa program and import people from Asia, Eastern Europe, wherever who are willing to do the job for pennies on the dollar.
Ask ANYONE in the IT industry about their experience with that. In many times, they had to train their own replacement.
Nu
pilotyip said:
The truth? Puleaze!
The lower end is NOT having a problem finding qualified people; there are plenty of 250 hour wonders out there who are ready to fly for (what amounts to) less than minimum wage. There may be a shortage of 2500 hr pilots willing to do that, but the lower end will continue to lower standards until the supply meets the demand.
The lower end of the hiring chain pays sub-McDonald's fry cook wages. There seems to be an infinite supply of idiots who are willing to live in their parents' basement for life because 'they fly for the love of it' or whatever rediculous line you want to use. Once the 250 hour wonders become scarce, look for ab initio training to start blossoming.
All the while, wages will stay in the crapper.
pilotyip
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There is a growing quality shortage reflected in the redefinition of competitve hiring minimums on the entry level. BTW the $20K is a starting pay, a chance to build time in order to be able to move on to your next job. Someplace like USA Jet where you start at $36K as a DA-20 FO and have a chance to move into scheduled DC-9 passenger service in your first year at the company.
pilotyip said:
Pilotyip, what is your job at USA Jet? Are you a management puke? Recruiting? What?
Look, the top end of pilot wages is collapsing (mark my words, freight will have it's day of wage pain). The bottom end will continue to remain low; I expect it to go lower.
I wish that there were less people out there pumping sunshine up people's anuses and take off the rose colored glasses.
Most of us enjoy flying. Personally, I view putting food on the table as a higher priority than flying an airplane. But to each his own.
pilotyip
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Andy thanks for the plug, always recruiting, always, as I have said on the lower end of business the pilot pool is drying up, so it takes a constant effort to keep 12 pilots in the pool. Fortunately we have almost no turnover which allows us to still be selective. Believe it or not, guys actually like working here until hired at someplace like FedEx. Plus I wanted to let guys know they don't have to suffer in the regional cockpit, there are other jobs out there that pay better than 18K to start.
Pilotyip, don't forget to mention the fine print. Have to live in the Willow Run area; have to be on beeper with a 20 min response time. The devil's in the details.
Silly question. If you have very little turnover, why do you have to constantly recruit? Is your annual growth rate in the three digit range?
Silly question. If you have very little turnover, why do you have to constantly recruit? Is your annual growth rate in the three digit range?
pilotyip
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Andy, we never hide the fine print, in fact we a have a 1/2-hour orientation for interviewees that gives them the complete facts of life at good ole YIP. We have about a 10% turnover, guys leave for other jobs. Like flying 74's for Connie, Atlas etc, Airtran, Spirit, guys look for career positions outside of on-demand cargo. We wish them well and say kind things about them to their next employer. It is a family thing. We hire 8-10 pilots per year, average guy had been here 6 years, ave. DC-9 Capt over 10 years. BTW again thanks for the plug, people are going to think you are my straight man
Ah, you're management. No wonder I haven't been able to get straight answers from you.
That also explains your tag line, "Fly because you like to, if you are in it for the respect, prestige, recognition or money you may be disappointed." Let me interpret for those that don't speak managementese. 'We're looking for gullible individuals who will work for peanuts for the love of the job. We will not respect them, reward them, acknowledge their contributions, and we will certainly not pay them a decent wage.'
That also explains your tag line, "Fly because you like to, if you are in it for the respect, prestige, recognition or money you may be disappointed." Let me interpret for those that don't speak managementese. 'We're looking for gullible individuals who will work for peanuts for the love of the job. We will not respect them, reward them, acknowledge their contributions, and we will certainly not pay them a decent wage.'
Checks
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I wanted to work for USA Jet, and still might one day, but after seeing how much it cost to live in YIP and the fact I needed to support a family I decided to pass on even applying. Seems like a good company but is pay and QOL really that good after a few years on the job? It seems like over the last few years that you guys are always in some kind of roller coaster cycle. Up one month and hiring like crazy, down the next. I personnally like some stability if I am only going to make less than 50K a year and ask my family to relocate.
pilotyip
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Pilotyip, my apologies on any personal attacks. We disagree on the direction of the industry, but I fouled by personalizing my opinions.
I don't like industry trends, and I don't think that they will improve.
I'm sure that USA Jet is a great company; it's just not something that I want to do. I wouldn't want to fly for Southwest, fractionals, or private bizjets.
My goal in life is to fly a widebody on international routes. At my age, I will never see the left seat of a widebody at United, but I'm OK with sitting in the right seat until the end of my career.
Tailwinds.
I don't like industry trends, and I don't think that they will improve.
I'm sure that USA Jet is a great company; it's just not something that I want to do. I wouldn't want to fly for Southwest, fractionals, or private bizjets.
My goal in life is to fly a widebody on international routes. At my age, I will never see the left seat of a widebody at United, but I'm OK with sitting in the right seat until the end of my career.
Tailwinds.
ExAF
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OK sarcasm off. Its a slow day.
ground_fog
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