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The Upcoming Structural Pilot Shortage is REAL - merged
- Thread starter atpcliff
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- Watchers 29
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Photoflight
AIR rAMBO
- Joined
- Jun 9, 2005
- Posts
- 541
atpcliff
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 26, 2001
- Posts
- 4,260
Hi!
No, it's not Kit.
It's Business Aviation Journal telling the business jet operators that they may have to start ab initio training to get the quality of pilots that they want down the road.
As I see it, the only thing stopping this process will be if we don't change over from using oil as a transportation fuel soon enough.
It looks like "peak oil" was last year, and if we can't quell demand fast enough to switch away from oil, all those jet/aircraft orders may go unfilled as the global economy goes into a tailspin, and 80% of us currently flying all lose our jobs.
The economists keep saying that as oil prices go up, the oil cos. will just find more oil, as if you can drill for oil anywhere and it will magically appear. In 2005 the oil cos. discovered less oil than any year since 1945, and, overall, they replaced about 10% of the oil they drilled with new finds.
cliff
ELP
No, it's not Kit.
It's Business Aviation Journal telling the business jet operators that they may have to start ab initio training to get the quality of pilots that they want down the road.
As I see it, the only thing stopping this process will be if we don't change over from using oil as a transportation fuel soon enough.
It looks like "peak oil" was last year, and if we can't quell demand fast enough to switch away from oil, all those jet/aircraft orders may go unfilled as the global economy goes into a tailspin, and 80% of us currently flying all lose our jobs.
The economists keep saying that as oil prices go up, the oil cos. will just find more oil, as if you can drill for oil anywhere and it will magically appear. In 2005 the oil cos. discovered less oil than any year since 1945, and, overall, they replaced about 10% of the oil they drilled with new finds.
cliff
ELP
Photoflight
AIR rAMBO
- Joined
- Jun 9, 2005
- Posts
- 541
Devil Dawg
Ms. Nancy Stuckey
- Joined
- Jan 10, 2005
- Posts
- 69
Yea, I smell Kit!!! There won't be a shortage for a few more years. I think the profession will have to be stripped of nearly all its value before we see a true shortage. We are not there yet but we are getting close. Would you recommend a family member get into this career feild? I don't think I would. The RJs are the new carrot on the end of the stick. A career RJ driver, is that good enough pay and benies to channel you efforts toward or would you be better off using your talents elsewhere? When we finally say elsewhere-- then and only then will there be a shortage.
On the other hand if it is your job to sell magazines or flight training then of course there will be a shortage of 747 international captain's earning $350,000 a year working 10 days a month. If you just take your training from me and buy my magazine you will be filling that position very soon!!
Best of luck to those optimistic enough to enter this profession. It will be a rocky road!
On the other hand if it is your job to sell magazines or flight training then of course there will be a shortage of 747 international captain's earning $350,000 a year working 10 days a month. If you just take your training from me and buy my magazine you will be filling that position very soon!!
Best of luck to those optimistic enough to enter this profession. It will be a rocky road!
siucavflight
Back from the forsaken
- Joined
- Jul 30, 2003
- Posts
- 3,512
jetflyer
Concerned Citizen
- Joined
- Mar 8, 2002
- Posts
- 2,040
Siucavflight,
With that attitude, you should probably just stick your head back in the sand. Everything ATP says is true. The world is reaching a point where oil production will probably begin to decline globally.
Oil production has been flat at 84 million barrels a day since the end of 2004.
33 of 48 countries according to Chevron have declining production, why can't the world start having declining production? The U.S. used to produce 10mbd, now they produce 7mbd. Prudhoe Bay used to produce 1.7 million barrels a day, now it produces .4mbd!!
Saudi Arabian production is down more than the ENTIRE PRUDHOE BAY productionin the last year(down from 9.5 million barrels a day to 9mbd). All of OPEC is down about 750 mbd from just two years ago! Nobody can increase production and most production is falling fast. I can go on and on.
Oil fields get old and peter out eventually. The world's oil fields are old and petering out and no new oil is being brought to market fast enough to replace the losses.
You should educate yourself, it's not the refineries.
We can turn coal to oil and jetfuel, it's just that it takes 3 years just to build one of the plants and the first ones are just being built. Every plant will only replace 1/1000th of our oil usage. Thank god we're starting now.
Oil prices are still low compared to what they'll be in the next couple years. Get used to it. Hopefully the economy can handle it as well.
Sorry please go back to the topic, I just had to defend ATP, because he knows a lot about what he is talking about.
Jet
With that attitude, you should probably just stick your head back in the sand. Everything ATP says is true. The world is reaching a point where oil production will probably begin to decline globally.
Oil production has been flat at 84 million barrels a day since the end of 2004.
33 of 48 countries according to Chevron have declining production, why can't the world start having declining production? The U.S. used to produce 10mbd, now they produce 7mbd. Prudhoe Bay used to produce 1.7 million barrels a day, now it produces .4mbd!!
Saudi Arabian production is down more than the ENTIRE PRUDHOE BAY productionin the last year(down from 9.5 million barrels a day to 9mbd). All of OPEC is down about 750 mbd from just two years ago! Nobody can increase production and most production is falling fast. I can go on and on.
Oil fields get old and peter out eventually. The world's oil fields are old and petering out and no new oil is being brought to market fast enough to replace the losses.
You should educate yourself, it's not the refineries.
We can turn coal to oil and jetfuel, it's just that it takes 3 years just to build one of the plants and the first ones are just being built. Every plant will only replace 1/1000th of our oil usage. Thank god we're starting now.
Oil prices are still low compared to what they'll be in the next couple years. Get used to it. Hopefully the economy can handle it as well.
Sorry please go back to the topic, I just had to defend ATP, because he knows a lot about what he is talking about.
Jet
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