The Upcoming Structural Pilot Shortage is REAL - merged

[GogglesPisano]

Simple economics. When pay goes up, then there will be evidence of a pilot shortage. Until then this is just trade-industry propaganda to induce young people to sign up to be cheap labor.

 

[pilotyip]

Pay has gone up, Pinnacle now pays during training. I know it is not much, but it a sign of a changing market.

 

[Vastly Underemp]

Man, I wish I could cash Kit Darby's paycheck!

There has NEVER, REPEAT NEVER been a pilot shortage of the pilot jobs we all want. Sure, if you want to make $*,000/year being a CFI, or 1*,000/year towing banners/flying pipeline/flying jumpers/fire and traffic spotting, be my guest. We all did it, and we all had to start somewhere. But the good paying, good schedule jobs have never had a shortage of applicants. When the majors start up again ('07 is a great bet, Yip) you'll see pilots coming out of the woodwork, just like every other hiring binge in the last 30 years. However, if you'd prefer, I could sell you some nice rosey glasses for only $129/year. I'll even send you a nice magazine.......

 

[pilotyip]

Vastly I agree there will never be an absolute pilot shortage. However as the Jun 2007 hiring binge starts, the pilot quality shortage will manifest itself in a redefinition of competitive minimums. This is just what we saw in pre 2000/2001, where 3,000-hour DA-20 pilots were hired at UAL, SWA, AirTran, etc.

 

[Andy]

Pilot Shortage???? HAH!

A long time ago, Bob Crandall was asked about pilot shortages. He said that it would never happen; they will simply adjust minimum hiring criteria to meet supply.
I can see a day when ab initio training returns to the majors ... where a newhire pilot is guaranteed a job making McDonald's wages.

 

[pilotyip]

McD's wages are great!!

McD's wages are great, one of my former CO's in the Navy Reserve worked at McD's, made over $100K/yr in the mid 80's, flew around as a passenger in back of thier G-something.

 

[Snakum]

This is just what we saw in pre 2000/2001, where 3,000-hour DA-20 pilots were hired at UAL, SWA, AirTran, etc.

I'm hoping for 1,000-hour Baron pilots being hired into DA-20 freighters. :beer:

 

[Andy]

McD's wages are great, one of my former CO's in the Navy Reserve worked at McD's, made over $100K/yr in the mid 80's, flew around as a passenger in back of thier G-something.

Ahh, must've been during the fry cook shortage back in the 80s. Amazing that fry cooks are no longer making $100k/yr; where did things go wrong for them?

http://www.ebaumsworld.com/flash/burgerking.html

 

[pilotyip]

He was is in McD's real estate dept, purchased land for building McD's

 

[B-J-J Fighter]

I have been reading YIPS prediction for a few yrs now, I'm starting to think he might be right.