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The Upcoming Structural Pilot Shortage is REAL - merged

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Be Very Careful What You Wish For.....

JediNein said:
Let's see:
Pilot pay down 40-50%, all raises and cost of living increases gone...
1980's pay was higher in dollars, no equalizing to today's dollars required...
Never at home...
On duty 14+ hours a day and getting paid for 3-4 hours...
Having to deal with the folks Greyhound won't...
Living in the thriving cities of Atlanta, Newark, and/or Los Angeles with 10-15 roommates so as to sleep on a cot on $10,000 the first year...
Knowing that a certain amount of ignoring maintenance items is required...
Random drug testing...
No alcohol the night before...
No recreational drugs the night before...
Ritalin is disqualifying...
Medicals every 6 months to 3 years...
Studying required...
Tests every 6 months at a minimum, random tests whenever a Fed feels like it...
Management golden parachutes mean you lose your job and can't hire elsewhere...
Senority systems that means Dumbo gets paid more than you for less work...
No ability to work elsewhere without starting at the bottom again...
And entry costs for the career run $24,000 and up.

Who wants to be an airline pilot again?

Ask a veteran:.......

The glory days are over

BY BARRY SCHIFF
(From AOPA Pilot, June 2006.)
Barry Schiff retired from TWA in 1998 after a 34-year career with the airline.
[SIZE=+2]I
have been agonizing over the topic of this column for a few years, not knowing if I should publicly air my personal thoughts. Not to do so, I finally concluded, would be intellectually dishonest. So at the risk of attracting flak, here goes.

I was hired as a pilot by Trans World Airlines in 1964. This was during the glamour years that began after World War II. Airline salaries were rising, working conditions improved with every contract renewal, and airline pilots earned approval and respect from every quarter. On international flights, airline pilots were treated like royalty.

No one working for Pan American World Airways or TWA during this period could possibly have anticipated the demise of their airlines. These were cultural icons of the twentieth century. At one time, TWA's logo was the second most recognizable in the world (Coca-Cola's was the first).

The death knell for this era sounded on October 24, 1978, when President Jimmy Carter signed the Airline Deregulation Act. The merits and demerits of deregulation aside, the long-term result for pilots was etched in stone. There would be an erosion of wages, working conditions, pensions, and job security.
Things got worse after the terrorist attacks of 9/11. Because of the need for additional security, airline pilots are locked in their cockpits behind bulletproof doors and suffer the indignity of coordinating trips to the lavatory with flight attendants.

The glory years are gone.

I could not have been prouder when my son Brian was hired by TWA in 1989. Although conditions had declined since the airlines were deregulated, being an airline pilot was still a great job. He upgraded to captain on the Boeing 727 11 years later. Although thrilled to be in the left seat of a jetliner for a major carrier, he worked harder and earned a smaller salary than I did many years previously.

TWA was assimilated by American Airlines in 2001. During the next two years Brian went from left seat to right seat to the street. He had been furloughed and eventually found a job flying Learjets for a Part 135 operator. He now flies as captain of a Canadair Regional Jet for a commuter carrier.

Like thousands of others who have been furloughed from the majors, he has no idea when he will be recalled. Considering that American is reducing its need for pilots by contractual increases in pilot productivity and outsourcing many of its shorter, thinner routes to commuter carriers, it could be many years before Brian again sees an American Airlines' flight deck. Another of my sons, Paul, began to satisfy his desire to become an airline pilot in 2000 when he was hired by Trans States Airline, a company that operated TWExpress, US Airways Express, and AmericanConnection. Paul bounced between all three and discovered after 9/11 that he was not making headway in accruing seniority.

After four domicile changes, he opted to leave Trans States and obtain a more promising position with United Express. He worked there for three years, during which he had as many changes in domicile, and discovered that the most he had earned after six years as a commuter pilot was less than $30,000 per year. He again foresaw little potential for a career like I had and with great mental anguish opted to change professions.

Paul recently started
a pet-supply company , gets to spend every night in his own bed, and has an opportunity to develop a social life. As an airline pilot gone from home 21 days a month, he had little opportunity to meet someone with whom he might like to share a future. When he did meet someone, he had neither the time nor the money for dating.

Paul says, "It is relatively easy to get a job with a commuter carrier, but not because these carriers are losing pilots to the majors; they are not. The attrition rate at the regional level is high because so many pilots reach their limits of endurance and quit. They find it too difficult to live on starvation wages [especially those with families]. There usually was nothing left in my wallet after shelling out for commuting and crash-pad expenses."

Although these are anecdotal experiences, my frank and personal discussions with numerous other airline pilots corroborate my feelings about the state of the airline industry. I can no longer encourage aspiring airline pilots without first ensuring that they understand the treacherous and daunting journeys typically required to reach for such lofty goals.

Do not misunderstand. Coping with the challenges of weather, communing with nature in a way that only pilots can appreciate, and maneuvering a sophisticated aircraft from one place on Earth to another remains a stimulating and gratifying endeavor (although I think it was more fun with less automation). It is the price one must pay to get there that is so discouraging.

I frequently am asked for advice about becoming an airline pilot. The best advice I can offer those determined to endure the rigorous hardships often required is to simultaneously develop a sideline vocation that can be used in case of emergency. A pilot should never get into a position that is totally dependent on income from an airline.

Does the end justify the means? Does becoming a captain for a major airline justify all that must be endured to get there? Perhaps, but surviving long enough to get there is the problem.
[/SIZE]

__._,_.___
 
B757 there is a whole thread, maybe two dedicated to this article. Those glory days may be over, but if you like to fly airplabnes this is still a great place to have career.
 
Here you guys go....from the man himself Kit Darby. Now...lets make it a game. Who can read between the lines and tell me what these paragraphs really mean to professional pilots.


Independence Air is going out of business today, most of the big airlines are in bankruptcy or close to it and thousands of airline pilots have been furloughed, but the job market for pilots hasn't looked this good in five years. Kit Darby, who runs Air, Inc., a publishing company that tracks pilot employment, says more than 10,000 jobs will open up this year. He said experienced pilots looking for work can probably find it but a few of them might need an attitude adjustment. "Whatever it is, you just have to get over it," said Darby. "Then you've got to get yourself up and get back to the marketplace. There are a lot of quality jobs out there." Darby said there are a lot of unemployed pilots who have a hard time taking a pay cut, a smaller airplane or a demotion but he urges them to look at the larger picture. Just about any steady flying job is going to pay more and be more satisfying (to a pilot) than just about any other type of career. He said he's had numerous clients that have left the industry in disgust, become successful at something else and then come back begging for a flying job. "It's a lifestyle. It's not just a job," he said.

[FONT=arial,helvetica,geneva]Where To Look[/FONT]

trafficjets.jpg
Most of the new hires are with regional airlines, fractional operators and charters, which, despite the widely publicized problems of the big airlines, are, according to Darby, doing just fine, thank you. "They're growing, they're profitable and they're hiring," he said. But it's not only the bottom half of the market that's looking for pilots. Darby said Continental and Alaska Airlines are both in the market and freight carriers like UPS and FedEx have been unscathed by recent downturns by big iron operators. While it's true that wages are being cut and pension plans restructured, Darby said they're still a pretty good deal. Despite the rollbacks, the average top salary for airline pilots is $168,000 a year and for cargo pilots it's $193,000. (Good luck at the negotiating table.) While some pension funds are in well-publicized trouble, others are fully funded and will supply a secure retirement for thousands of pilots. Others are being replaced by new types of plans based on profit-sharing and 401(k) contributions. "Some of the replacement plans are pretty good," Darby said.
[FONT=arial,helvetica,geneva]Jobs: The Long Term Outlook[/FONT]

embraervljalta.jpg
And while such unpredictable events such as 9/11, SARS or even avian flu could sewer the industry again, if things keep on a reasonably even keel, there should be above-average hiring for years to come, according to Darby. That's because over the next 10 years, tens of thousands of airline pilots will hit the mandatory retirement age of 60. However, there are about 9,600 fully qualified pilots currently on furlough and if they start pounding the pavement, how are young, inexperienced pilots supposed to compete? The key word is enthusiasm. "Airlines don't hire the best people, they never have," he said. "They hire people they like." He said a lot of old hands resent having to go through the interview process and may be broadcasting negative vibes loud and clear. An eager, respectful and enthusiastic pilot, even if he or she has less experience, is going to look better to the recruiter.
 
The Truth and nothing but the truth

photo, it is the truth, maybe as Jack Nicholson said in a Few Good Men, "You can't stand the truth" I don't see anything in the post that does not reflect reality of today's job market. The worldwide pilot shortage is real, and it is growing in the US. The signs on the lower end of the hiring chain are having trouble finding qualiifed pilots
 
Last edited:
ultrarunner said:
This is excellent news...in time salaries will go up. It's all about the cycle.

Heyas,

I disagree here. There will never be more money. If even if the mythical shortage DOES materialize (ahahahahah, ahahhahahah whoooahahhahaha, oh, oh <snif>), the airlines will just run crying to the administration that "we can't find the people" and institute an H-2 visa program and import people from Asia, Eastern Europe, wherever who are willing to do the job for pennies on the dollar.

Ask ANYONE in the IT industry about their experience with that. In many times, they had to train their own replacement.

Nu
 
pilotyip said:
photo, it is the truth, maybe as Jack Nicholson said in a Few Good Men, "You can't stand the truth" I don't see anything in the post that does not reflect reality of today's job market. The worldwide pilot shortage is real, and it is growing in the US. The signs on the lower end of the hiring chain are having trouble finding qualiifed pilots

The truth? Puleaze!
The lower end is NOT having a problem finding qualified people; there are plenty of 250 hour wonders out there who are ready to fly for (what amounts to) less than minimum wage. There may be a shortage of 2500 hr pilots willing to do that, but the lower end will continue to lower standards until the supply meets the demand.
The lower end of the hiring chain pays sub-McDonald's fry cook wages. There seems to be an infinite supply of idiots who are willing to live in their parents' basement for life because 'they fly for the love of it' or whatever rediculous line you want to use. Once the 250 hour wonders become scarce, look for ab initio training to start blossoming.
All the while, wages will stay in the crapper.
 
andy you know they never lower thier standards. They just redefine thier competitive hiring minimums.
 
There is no pilot shortage. When regional airlines are still paying pilot less than 20K a year then there is no shortage!
 
There is a growing quality shortage reflected in the redefinition of competitve hiring minimums on the entry level. BTW the $20K is a starting pay, a chance to build time in order to be able to move on to your next job. Someplace like USA Jet where you start at $36K as a DA-20 FO and have a chance to move into scheduled DC-9 passenger service in your first year at the company.
 
pilotyip said:
There is a growing quality shortage reflected in the redefinition of competitve hiring minimums on the entry level. BTW the $20K is a starting pay, a chance to build time in order to be able to move on to your next job. Someplace like USA Jet where you start at $36K as a DA-20 FO and have a chance to move into scheduled DC-9 passenger service in your first year at the company.

Pilotyip, what is your job at USA Jet? Are you a management puke? Recruiting? What?
Look, the top end of pilot wages is collapsing (mark my words, freight will have it's day of wage pain). The bottom end will continue to remain low; I expect it to go lower.
I wish that there were less people out there pumping sunshine up people's anuses and take off the rose colored glasses.
Most of us enjoy flying. Personally, I view putting food on the table as a higher priority than flying an airplane. But to each his own.
 

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