The Silent Majority at ASA

[ASARJMan]

well ******, looks like you chose the wrong profession. If your future is really that bleak, just leave. Go do whatever it is that your friends do to earn 150-200k.

Now there's a real intelligient response! I suppose you want to accept a contract that basically has no real raises, no COLA the entire length of contract, no trip/duty rigs, no real increase in per diem, and meaningful scope to protect our jobs? Well you hopefully are in the minority. Soon the NMB will rule whether we are offered a proffer and then the 30 day cooling off period will start. I don't want to strike but I will before I lower my expectations of a fair and just contract. And, I will not leave as you suggest.

 

[JoeMerchant]

Play with this:

http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/data/us/calc/

Thanks to Co Pilot Doug....

Fins,
Have you compared the average price of an airline ticket over the past 30 years, or the pay rates of mainline widebody captain over the past 30 years? We have deflation in the airline industry.

 

[JoeMerchant]

Airline ticket prices not keeping up with inflation


Submitted by WWAY on 18 April 2007 - 8:20pm.READ MORE: News | Airlines | Business | Consumer | Transportation
Story body

CONSUMER WATCH -- Buying an airline ticket today is a lot different than it was 25 years ago. With websites like Orbitz and Expedia and low-cost carriers like AirTran and Jet Blue competing for your business times have changed.
One thing that hasn't changed: it still feels expensive to buy an airline ticket. It seems we are paying more these days. But when you take inflation into account, flying is surprisingly less expensive.
Booking an airline flight and searching for the lowest fare? You might be surprised to learn that in many cases, ticket prices have actually not kept pace with inflation.
Air travel analyst Terry Trippler conducted a random survey of schedules and airfares comparing ticket prices of today with those from 25 years ago for 27 different cities.
When 1982 prices are adjusted for inflation, Trippler found that today's prices are actually lower.
In 1982 there were three roundtrip flights from Boston to Los Angeles, with the lowest fare costing $298. Adjusted for inflation, that ticket should cost $635 today, but Trippler found that, not only are there nine roundtrip flights instead of three, the lowest fare was just $199.
Flying from New York to Miami? In the eighties there were 21 flights, with the lowest fare costing $188. That same ticket should cost $400 in 2007, but Trippler found that the lowest fare was actually $158 and there are now 25 nonstop flights.
So take some comfort when paying for that ticket. You could be paying a lot more.

 

[~~~^~~~]

True - but senior airline management pay seems to be hanging in there with inflation just fine. Especially at United and NorthWest.

Joe - you bring up many, many, good points but I can't figure out how we achieve your goals without supporting our representative structure. Management has said no to OneList and no to effective scope. They have told us we can't buy it. Is there any other way, other than force? To use force we have to get released.

The alternative of signing the Company's current table offer does not fix the #1 thing on our agenda. Really, how do we get what we need?


ForrestGump: Shame on you for resorting to trying to "out" people. I'm trying to get out of your way and think plan A, and even the contingency plans for plan A are coming together. Still, ASA was a great little airline and had a bright future. It is hard to just sit back and watch all the potential drain away. At heart, I'm a team kinda guy and just because my plan worked out, doesn't mean that I don't care about our profession, or our friends who serve at ASA. It is never about Fins, I'm irrelevant to the big picture. It is about our airline, our pilots and the profession.

 

[JoeMerchant]

Fins,
While you have had faith in our local leadership, I have not for several years now. Danny seems to get it, but the rest never really have. We are watching another repeat of ACA/Air Wisc./CMR/PDT/ALG/CCAir/Mesaba..... De ja vu all over again.

No single MEC of a subsidiary of a portfolio player (among 9 or so) can stand up to the economics of reverse pattern bargaining. With MESA and others chipping away at one side, and mainline pilots underbidding us on the other side, we are in a short squeeze... Leaving the same coach in with a failing game plan, regardless of how well intentioned that coach is, is still setting up for failure....

I'm not sure this genie can be put back in the bottle, but I am not willing to become the next sacrifice in the "portfolio wheel of misfortune"...

 

[~~~^~~~]

Yes - but how do we fix it? Are you advocating "scope by lowest costs?"

You are right on the history, even as I read back through Flying the Line, ALPA's "victories" usually came with shutting down the airline and everyone finds other jobs.

Just be clear for guys like me who don't get it. Are you saying our only hope is to come in below Mesa, or whoever has the lowest rates? That target moves so much, I can't keep up with who's concessions out did the other guys concessionary deal.

According to our President "Longevity is killing our airline." I don't think we can fix that no matter what we do.

Really, what is your solution? How do we achieve that solution?

 

[JoeMerchant]

Yes - but how do we fix it? Are you advocating "scope by lowest costs?"

You are right on the history, even as I read back through Flying the Line, ALPA's "victories" usually came with shutting down the airline and everyone finds other jobs.

Just be clear for guys like me who don't get it. Are you saying our only hope is to come in below Mesa, or whoever has the lowest rates? That target moves so much, I can't keep up with who's concessions out did the other guys concessionary deal.

My first choice has ALWAYS been to stop this crazy competing within a brand for flying. ALPA has absolutely refused to even stop the bleeding here, much less heal the wound itself.

In the absence of ALPA refusing to deal with brand scope/competing within a brand, then I believe we need to compete... Does that mean being the lowest? NO. However in the absence of true brand scope, I also do not want to be the highest in the portfolio. The track record is not good for carriers with the highest cost structure in a portfolio....

 

[~~~^~~~]

Agreed - but I think we all know ASA's pay rates are not going to be industry leading, or even keep up with a quarter of inflation.

ALPA's scope loss is water under the dam for the purposes of this contract. This crisis is so immediate that we don't have the luxury of trying to point fingers. We need all hands on deck to repel boarders.

So we are back to scope. Will you sign a contract without it?

 

[JoeMerchant]

Fins we still agree on most thing, I just have given up on this ship just quite yet...... Do you still have that spreadsheet of earnings comparisons? At 14 ATR pay, and assuming going to the 700 in 2 years, how long does it take me to break even at Delta? Thanks in advance if you still have that spreadsheet.

 

[JoeMerchant]

Agreed - but I think we all know ASA's pay rates are not going to be industry leading, or even keep up with a quarter of inflation.

So we are back to scope. Will you sign a contract without it?

That depends. Again I don't think we will get a release, and I also don't believe we are even attempting a single list based on recent comments from the CNC chairman. I don't believe ALPA national wants a single list at this time because it would trigger a representational election, and they are afraid of losing the ASA pilots in addition to the Skywest pilots.

In the absence of a release, any meaningful scope will have to be "bought", and I'm not sure people are willing to pay what it would cost. In fact, it would probably cost so much, that it would largely be irrelevant as our costs would be low enough that we would grow despite the scope.

There is also the issue of JA vs. ALPA. This is a huge battle between Jerry and ALPA... the stakes are high on both sides. At this point I am willing to hitch my wagon to the Jerry train and cut ties with ALPA. Will that work? I don't know, but I don't think it could be any worse that the status quo....

 

[VeeOne]

Agreed - but I think we all know ASA's pay rates are not going to be industry leading, or even keep up with a quarter of inflation.

So we are back to scope. Will you sign a contract without it?

Actually, I'm not so sure about the effectiveness of scope anyway. One list would be the way to go- keep Skywest INC. (ASA)employees employed before hiring off the street, following aircraft reallocation or transfer.

I am thinking that keeping our cost in line with Skywest's will provide our necessary scope. Otherwise, we'd all be gone by now. If we stick our neck out there and surpass, by a large margin, the Skywest cost structure, we will lose aircraft. At that point the 800K per airplane would be easily justifyable to the stockholders, etc. We simply cannot afford to provide this incentive to Skywest, Inc.

 

[atlcrjdriver]

Unrealistic goals? Do you even know where we are right now?

A small raise on the 700, a raise bringing the 200 up to industry standard, retro (co has offered $2 mil, a start), trip/duty rigs (you enjoy the unproductive pairings they build you?), SCOPE (co refusing so far) and COLA (which the company is refusing too) are fair and realistic goals.

Maybe you haven't noticed your healthcare premiums and deductables are up, and gas is over $3 bucks. That burger you eat on your overnight has gone up, but the company doesn't want to increase per diem very much. Unrealistic indeed!

In this cut throat industry, this is not the time for a token contract. What JA has said is true that we can't price ourselves out of business. Ask OH how long it lasted before it got cut up.

We are already at the top of the hill on the CR7, offer COLA and call it a day. If you believe that we will get more than SKW on the CR2/ATR then keep dreaming. Take SKW on the CR2 with higher first year pay and COLA/profit sharing and call it done. From what the P2Ps say trip/duty rigs are close to completion with minor language to complete. Believe it or not even the SKW guys have some bad skds. Dump the retirement issues and keep the improved 401K options. Like it or not healthcare costs will continue to rise and that will continue to be a flow through cost to you, no matter what business you are in. If you don't like it then move to the UK. The tricky one is scope and w/o it we are hosed. Use PBS to help offset the cost of scope/retro and call it done.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

In this cut throat industry, this is not the time for a token contract. What JA has said is true that we can't price ourselves out of business. Ask OH how long it lasted before it got cut up.

We are already at the top of the hill on the CR7, offer COLA and call it a day. If you believe that we will get more than SKW on the CR2/ATR then keep dreaming. Take SKW on the CR2 with higher first year pay and COLA/profit sharing and call it done. From what the P2Ps say trip/duty rigs are close to completion with minor language to complete. Believe it or not even the SKW guys have some bad skds. Dump the retirement issues and keep the improved 401K options. Like it or not healthcare costs will continue to rise and that will continue to be a flow through cost to you, no matter what business you are in. If you don't like it then move to the UK. The tricky one is scope and w/o it we are hosed. Use PBS to help offset the cost of scope/retro and call it done.

I agree with everything you said except what you said about scope. This is the one thing that no one seems to get. We only need scope if we price ourselves out of the market. If we get an "industry leading" contract, then sure, planes will be transferred away, and we will be shrunk to some tiny or non-existant airline. Even if we get scope in this contract, Jerry Atkin will find a way to transfer the assets to the profitable part of the company. If he has to shut us down and sell the planes, he will do it.

For those of you that are "standing on principle," go stand somewhere else. I need this job, and I don't care about your principles. If you succeed, and get this company to capitulate, we will shrink, and I'll be at first year pay at some crappy regional again waiting for upgrade. I'm not alone here.

To the union reps reading this:

Do something with my union dues, and get us a f-ing contract already!

 

[601Pilot]

obviously YOU don't....

Nice come back Alan; why don't you explain it to me since you are the resident expert. Then I'll tell YOU how it really works.

 

[JoeMerchant]

601,

In a previous post, you stated:

"Do you know how PBS works? What major cost savings do you see the company obtaining from PBS?"

The major cost savings for the company is that they need fewer pilots (fewer reserve/relief pilots) due to the fact that there is no longer any "conflicts" with vacation, training events, and month-month conflicts. For the record, that is why I don't really want PBS.... I enjoy working the vacation conflicts and having trips dropped at either end of the vacation. However I am willing to trade for something else.....

 

[ohplease!]

Nice come back Alan; why don't you explain it to me since you are the resident expert. Then I'll tell YOU how it really works.

well, John beat me to it. But lets play your game; enlighten me oh great one...

 

[ASARJMan]

If you don't like it then move to the UK. The tricky one is scope and w/o it we are hosed. Use PBS to help offset the cost of scope/retro and call it done.

I believe what I posted pretty much is aligned with what you posted, except for the smartass "move to the UK" crack. Been here a long time junior, maybe you ought to consider moving on to the UK.

 

[79%N1]

Unrealistic goals? Do you even know where we are right now?

A small raise on the 700, a raise bringing the 200 up to industry standard, retro (co has offered $2 mil, a start), trip/duty rigs (you enjoy the unproductive pairings they build you?), SCOPE (co refusing so far) and COLA (which the company is refusing too) are fair and realistic goals.

Maybe you haven't noticed your healthcare premiums and deductables are up, and gas is over $3 bucks. That burger you eat on your overnight has gone up, but the company doesn't want to increase per diem very much. Unrealistic indeed!

The unrealistic goals I am refering to are 100% retro. ALPA has delayed the negotiations maybe as much as management, and that is a fact that there has been a long period where ALPA wanted to drag out negotiations until the climate of the industry was in our favor (mistake?) Should the company pay us back for that? Granted, 2 million is not enough, expecting full retro is, IMHO, unrealistic. Anyway, what do the 700 guys get in retro, especially the FO's and senior captains? Their rates will not go up much, due to the fact that they are at or near the top in all of DCI. Asking for profit sharing based on Skywest' profits, not ASA's is unralistic. Skywest pilots bonus plan is based on Skywests profits and performance, not includes ASA's. Unrealistic.

Trade it for cola, realistic scope....and it's over. Simple. (right?)

 

[atlcrjdriver]

I believe what I posted pretty much is aligned with what you posted, except for the smartass "move to the UK" crack. Been here a long time junior, maybe you ought to consider moving on to the UK.

Wasn't meant to be a wise crack, simply stated reality. Since you have been here so long then you have seen healthcare costs rise yearly. This cost, in any company you go to, will continue to flow through to us the employees. I mention the UK as an example of were healthcare is paid by the gov.

 

[John Pennekamp]

Now there's a real intelligient response! I suppose you want to accept a contract that basically has no real raises, no COLA the entire length of contract, no trip/duty rigs, no real increase in per diem, and meaningful scope to protect our jobs? Well you hopefully are in the minority. Soon the NMB will rule whether we are offered a proffer and then the 30 day cooling off period will start. I don't want to strike but I will before I lower my expectations of a fair and just contract. And, I will not leave as you suggest.

MP, care to make it interesting? I bet you $100 we DON'T get released. Put your money where you mouth is "junior".

Oh, and just let me say for the record, that you're not holding up too well in debate. You're starting to sound like your nemesis JB, except in reverse, but still rehashing the same rhetoric over and over. And the petty attempts to out people only hurts your and the MEC's credibility. We all know they have been telling y'all to come on here and discredit us, since they don't have the balls to do it themselves, so you can just drop the pretenses.

And since y'all don't have any logical arguments to discredit what we've said, y'all just resort to petty character assasinations, guilt by association with fringe wackos, and outing as attempts to embarass us into submission.

News: we will not be silent, we will not go away! You can beat us with information or action but we will not be muscled into silence the way ALPA tries to do with anyone who publicly dissents. You're only showing the silent majority at ASA and Skywest what union goons you really can be.

See y'all at the LEC meeting. It should be an interesting show, I hope.

[Edit: Nevermind, you're really not worth it. Carry on, Sport!]