The pilot shortage is already here. Airlines cut flights.

[General Lee]

Sorry, Congress or not, it's time for these scummy airlines to start paying a fair wage. It's been a long time coming.

Pay people a livable wage and you won't have too many problems filling your classes. Keep treating, paying pilots crappy, and find yourself out of the business. It's that simple. The Regionals in particular have had their way with pilots for far too long. I will not shed a tear if Republic, Mesa, Trans States, or even Expressjet can't find pilots. That will be Capitalism at its best.

The Majors are not off the hook either. Fail to keep your pilots satisfied, and watch them jump ship to other Majors/Legacies. There will be a lot of turnover from LCCs to Legacies if some of these airlines don't get their act together. You listening JetBlue???

You are absolutely correct. There will be poaching from one airline to the next, and that will become very expensive with newhire and upgrade training each time a Captain leaves. One thing that may start in earnest coming up here is LCCs hiring more Regional FOs with zero PIC. By doing that, they may keep them longer and they may actually stick around longer to upgrade and then look more favorable to the legacies. Eventually, the big airlines will be looking for anyone with Jet PIC or SIC....15,000 retirements coming up in the next decade for the big 3 alone. Someone on another board made a graph stating a newhire today at DL would move up nearly 8000 numbers at DL within the next 14 years due to retirements. That is unbelievable advancement.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Freebrd]

Geez glad you're informing us about the upcoming retirements Jenny. Who knew?

 

[General Lee]

Geez glad you're informing us about the upcoming retirements Jenny. Who knew?

It is amazing that a newhire today could move up that many numbers in 14 years. A 32 year old newhire could be in the top 1/3 by 46 years old. That is crazy.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[JT12345]

Simple.

There will be more waivers for the flight time.

200-300 hours with a standards Captain for example or other things that can reduce the time requirement.

Some of my worst FOs were higher time pilots. More time in type too than me. Most of them 'had to leave' either during or some time after upgrade. Majority were from some other countries with just a different mentality about the rules.

It is too the point now where the money will pour into Congress for this if you know what I mean. There have not been too many problems at the regionals in the news for a few years now?

Some good things have come out of this. Changes like rest rules and fatigue training.

 

[Bringupthebird]

You'll see airlines like Republic camped out on college campuses recruiting folks who are sick of being in school. No money down 0-ATP in 2 years, training payroll deducted over 5 years. No Private or commercial, only a Multi-Crew License trained under an airline-specific training program that would keep you from leaving. The FAA will have no heartburn since they approved the airlines training program originally.

 

[General Lee]

You'll see airlines like Republic camped out on college campuses recruiting folks who are sick of being in school. No money down 0-ATP in 2 years, training payroll deducted over 5 years. No Private or commercial, only a Multi-Crew License trained under an airline-specific training program that would keep you from leaving. The FAA will have no heartburn since they approved the airlines training program originally.

This might be pretty close. I know a 777 Capt who paid big bucks for his son to go to one of those "$80K get all your hours" flight schools and his son, with 320 total hours now, has a "guaranteed" interview already at the above Regional once he gets 1500 hours. He already knows. Maybe there already is a "tie in" with the school and that airline. Unbelievable.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[CRAWDADDY]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdfCQiMq0xw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKdMbW5y1Rk

 

[relief tube]

just wait, the perfect solution to this is age 70.

.....for 5 years, then it starts sucking again.

If they try raising it again, I will murder someone

 

[General Lee]

.....for 5 years, then it starts sucking again.

If they try raising it again, I will murder someone

Canada does 70, but at 65 you leave the left seat for a narrowbody FO seat or cruise officer (no takeoff or landings) on a Widebody. It preserves upgrades, but could stagnate hiring a bit. Not many would do that unless they were financially desperate. And, it would take years via Congress to mandate that. I see regionals shrinking and mainlines poaching pilots from LCCs, hurting their competitors at the same time.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[$$$4nothin]

Canada does 70, but at 65 you leave the left seat for a narrowbody FO seat or cruise officer (no takeoff or landings) on a Widebody. It preserves upgrades, but could stagnate hiring a bit. Not many would do that unless they were financially desperate. And, it would take years via Congress to mandate that. I see regionals shrinking and mainlines poaching pilots from LCCs, hurting their competitors at the same time.



Bye Bye---General Lee

Seriously. Why in the heck does anyone want to work to 70. Move to FL or Arizona. Get a hobby. Go golfing, go hunting, go fishing, spend more time on your boat, spend time with grand kids, whatever. Blows my mind. Go enjoy your money and relax a bit. Stop worrying about commutes, wx, cancelled flights, schedules, FAA, etc etc. Just because you can do something doesn't mean you should.