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The pilot shortage is already here. Airlines cut flights.

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There is a big play stirring. I think the bosses are going to try and push for the rollback some of the changes to the FAR's. Or, gasp, have the government ease cabotage or visas for foreign workers. Or who knows what...
 
zasca said:
There is a big play stirring. I think the bosses are going to try and push for the rollback some of the changes to the FAR's. Or, gasp, have the government ease cabotage or visas for foreign workers. Or who knows what...
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The families of the Colgan crash victims will continually show up. They were relentless in pushing for this change, and no Congressman or woman will stand up to them. It would be political suicide.


Bye Bye---General Lee
 
I said "try". Grieving families may talk, but Big Money walks. The law would not have prevented that crash, nor will it prevent new crashes. It is all an illusion to placate some irritating noise. What it will do is force management to hire washed up losers with 5000 hours (15 years ago) over a kid who actually wants to try to do a good job.
 
Says the kid who "wants to do a good job". I'm sure the "5000 washup" also wants to do a good job. If you are the person you sound like, then get in line and cut your teeth like the rest.

box
 
I'm already at a legacy, thanks for assuming. I also had the pleasure of flying with many more "good" 250 hour wonderkids than "bad" as a captain at a regional. It's not the number of hours but the quality, right? That and all the other useful stuff "some" of the college programs teach. I'm also pretty sure that line to sit reserve at regional is pretty short these days, and many of us "cut our teeth" in those seats just fine.

The law caused qualified airline pilots to scramble to make sure they had enough hours to keep their CURRENT jobs as airline pilots. Then carve outs were added for specific college programs and the military. Arbitrary numbers to say the least.

By no means am I saying everyone (or many at all) can be ready to be an FO at 250 hrs, or 10,000 hours for that matter. I know I probably wouldn't have been, and appreciate my CFI experience before the airlines.....

Just saying the dog and pony show backfired. The pony kicked em in the groin and they might have to put it down. Or pay people decent money to show up to class. One or the other.
 
Sorry, Congress or not, it's time for these scummy airlines to start paying a fair wage. It's been a long time coming.

Pay people a livable wage and you won't have too many problems filling your classes. Keep treating, paying pilots crappy, and find yourself out of the business. It's that simple. The Regionals in particular have had their way with pilots for far too long. I will not shed a tear if Republic, Mesa, Trans States, or even Expressjet can't find pilots. That will be Capitalism at its best.

The Majors are not off the hook either. Fail to keep your pilots satisfied, and watch them jump ship to other Majors/Legacies. There will be a lot of turnover from LCCs to Legacies if some of these airlines don't get their act together. You listening JetBlue???
 
zasca said:
I'm already at a legacy, thanks for assuming. I also had the pleasure of flying with many more "good" 250 hour wonderkids than "bad" as a captain at a regional. It's not the number of hours but the quality, right? That and all the other useful stuff "some" of the college programs teach. I'm also pretty sure that line to sit reserve at regional is pretty short these days, and many of us "cut our teeth" in those seats just fine.

The law caused qualified airline pilots to scramble to make sure they had enough hours to keep their CURRENT jobs as airline pilots. Then carve outs were added for specific college programs and the military. Arbitrary numbers to say the least.

By no means am I saying everyone (or many at all) can be ready to be an FO at 250 hrs, or 10,000 hours for that matter. I know I probably wouldn't have been, and appreciate my CFI experience before the airlines.....

Just saying the dog and pony show backfired. The pony kicked em in the groin and they might have to put it down. Or pay people decent money to show up to class. One or the other.
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They tried to put it down, the Regional Airline Association tried to lobby Congress to stop it, but the families of the Colgan crash victims created such a stir, it became political suicide to go against it. They are ready to go public again most likely if it is challenged. Good.


Bye Bye---General Lee
 
MINIME said:
Sorry, Congress or not, it's time for these scummy airlines to start paying a fair wage. It's been a long time coming.

Pay people a livable wage and you won't have too many problems filling your classes. Keep treating, paying pilots crappy, and find yourself out of the business. It's that simple. The Regionals in particular have had their way with pilots for far too long. I will not shed a tear if Republic, Mesa, Trans States, or even Expressjet can't find pilots. That will be Capitalism at its best.

The Majors are not off the hook either. Fail to keep your pilots satisfied, and watch them jump ship to other Majors/Legacies. There will be a lot of turnover from LCCs to Legacies if some of these airlines don't get their act together. You listening JetBlue???
Click to expand...


You are absolutely correct. There will be poaching from one airline to the next, and that will become very expensive with newhire and upgrade training each time a Captain leaves. One thing that may start in earnest coming up here is LCCs hiring more Regional FOs with zero PIC. By doing that, they may keep them longer and they may actually stick around longer to upgrade and then look more favorable to the legacies. Eventually, the big airlines will be looking for anyone with Jet PIC or SIC....15,000 retirements coming up in the next decade for the big 3 alone. Someone on another board made a graph stating a newhire today at DL would move up nearly 8000 numbers at DL within the next 14 years due to retirements. That is unbelievable advancement.



Bye Bye---General Lee
 
Freebrd said:
Geez glad you're informing us about the upcoming retirements Jenny. Who knew? :rolleyes:
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It is amazing that a newhire today could move up that many numbers in 14 years. A 32 year old newhire could be in the top 1/3 by 46 years old. That is crazy.



Bye Bye---General Lee
 
Simple.

There will be more waivers for the flight time.

200-300 hours with a standards Captain for example or other things that can reduce the time requirement.

Some of my worst FOs were higher time pilots. More time in type too than me. Most of them 'had to leave' either during or some time after upgrade. Majority were from some other countries with just a different mentality about the rules.

It is too the point now where the money will pour into Congress for this if you know what I mean. There have not been too many problems at the regionals in the news for a few years now?

Some good things have come out of this. Changes like rest rules and fatigue training.
 
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You'll see airlines like Republic camped out on college campuses recruiting folks who are sick of being in school. No money down 0-ATP in 2 years, training payroll deducted over 5 years. No Private or commercial, only a Multi-Crew License trained under an airline-specific training program that would keep you from leaving. The FAA will have no heartburn since they approved the airlines training program originally.
 
Bringupthebird said:
You'll see airlines like Republic camped out on college campuses recruiting folks who are sick of being in school. No money down 0-ATP in 2 years, training payroll deducted over 5 years. No Private or commercial, only a Multi-Crew License trained under an airline-specific training program that would keep you from leaving. The FAA will have no heartburn since they approved the airlines training program originally.
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This might be pretty close. I know a 777 Capt who paid big bucks for his son to go to one of those "$80K get all your hours" flight schools and his son, with 320 total hours now, has a "guaranteed" interview already at the above Regional once he gets 1500 hours. He already knows. Maybe there already is a "tie in" with the school and that airline. Unbelievable.


Bye Bye---General Lee
 
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relief tube said:
.....for 5 years, then it starts sucking again.

If they try raising it again, I will murder someone :)
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Canada does 70, but at 65 you leave the left seat for a narrowbody FO seat or cruise officer (no takeoff or landings) on a Widebody. It preserves upgrades, but could stagnate hiring a bit. Not many would do that unless they were financially desperate. And, it would take years via Congress to mandate that. I see regionals shrinking and mainlines poaching pilots from LCCs, hurting their competitors at the same time.



Bye Bye---General Lee
 
General Lee said:
Canada does 70, but at 65 you leave the left seat for a narrowbody FO seat or cruise officer (no takeoff or landings) on a Widebody. It preserves upgrades, but could stagnate hiring a bit. Not many would do that unless they were financially desperate. And, it would take years via Congress to mandate that. I see regionals shrinking and mainlines poaching pilots from LCCs, hurting their competitors at the same time.



Bye Bye---General Lee
Click to expand...

Seriously. Why in the heck does anyone want to work to 70. Move to FL or Arizona. Get a hobby. Go golfing, go hunting, go fishing, spend more time on your boat, spend time with grand kids, whatever. Blows my mind. Go enjoy your money and relax a bit. Stop worrying about commutes, wx, cancelled flights, schedules, FAA, etc etc. Just because you can do something doesn't mean you should.
 

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