SWA Poolies (3)

[chase]

Announcement from Laura Wright, SWA/CFO at BOA conference today.

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Southwest Sees 'very Strong' June Revenue Growth




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By Christopher Hinton

MarketWatch Pulse


.ybuzz { float: right; margin-top: -4px; margin-left: -2px; } // get ybuzz li to show up properly on the right

NEW YORK -- Southwest Airlines is expecting "very strong" revenue growth in June, building upon the year's momentum as travelers return to the skies after last year's doldrums, said Laura Wright, the budget carrier's chief [COLOR=blue !important][COLOR=blue !important]financial[/COLOR] officer. "Results in our outlook have drastically improved from last year despite challenges in our economy," Wright said at an analyst meeting. "Travel of first half of June and in the second half of June is very strong, and we expect another significant year-over-year revenue increase reporting in July," she said. Southwest currently has about $3 billion in unrestricted cash and investments on its balance sheet, and it expects "modest" capacity growth in the third and fourth quarter.[/COLOR]

Capacity Outlook​

​

[FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]•[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]Expect 2010 capacity roughly flat with 2009
[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]•[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]1Q10 capacity decline of 6.4% vs. 1Q09
[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]•[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]2Q10 capacity flat to slightly down vs. 2Q09
[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]•[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]3Q10 capacity increase in 2-3% range vs. 3Q09
[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]•[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]4Q10 capacity increase in 2-3% range vs. 4Q09
[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]•[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]Expect 2010 fleet to remain roughly flat with 2009
[/FONT][/FONT](Slide 13 of 15 at the BOA presentation this AM)
Here is the link to the full presentation.

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/Externa...9MzE1MTQ3OHxDaGlsZElEPTM4NjYzN3xUeXBlPTI=&t=1

Here is the link to listen to the entire presentation:

https://www.veracast.com/webcasts/bas/transportation2010/id26084380.cfm

Click on the webcast link.

 

[BigDave]

Novembers new schedules show a loss of 106 flights a day, is that the normal winter reduction?

 

[Quiet Flight]

I just looked at the nov sched as well. It reflects a roughly 3% cut to current flying. It looks as if it is good through mid-Jan. How is capacity growing when flights are being reduced? -800's??

I think Laura and Gary are using new math. On the upside, the slide show reiterates Gary's desire to use Volaris to fly to Mexico. Viva la Mexico!!

(It's sad when GIA can fly to several international destinations, one of which is an embargoed communist country, and SWA can't figure out how to fly to Vancouver and Cancun...)

 

[General Lee]

Announcement from Laura Wright, SWA/CFO at BOA conference today.

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Southwest Sees 'very Strong' June Revenue Growth




You must login or register in order to recommend this.



| Respond to Editor | Print


By Christopher Hinton

MarketWatch Pulse


.ybuzz { float: right; margin-top: -4px; margin-left: -2px; } // get ybuzz li to show up properly on the right
NEW YORK -- Southwest Airlines is expecting "very strong" revenue growth in June, building upon the year's momentum as travelers return to the skies after last year's doldrums, said Laura Wright, the budget carrier's chief [COLOR=blue !important][COLOR=blue !important]financial[/COLOR] officer. "Results in our outlook have drastically improved from last year despite challenges in our economy," Wright said at an analyst meeting. "Travel of first half of June and in the second half of June is very strong, and we expect another significant year-over-year revenue increase reporting in July," she said. Southwest currently has about $3 billion in unrestricted cash and investments on its balance sheet, and it expects "modest" capacity growth in the third and fourth quarter.[/COLOR]

Capacity Outlook​

[FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]•[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]Expect 2010 capacity roughly flat with 2009[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]•[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]1Q10 capacity decline of 6.4% vs. 1Q09[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]•[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]2Q10 capacity flat to slightly down vs. 2Q09[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]•[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]3Q10 capacity increase in 2-3% range vs. 3Q09[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]•[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]4Q10 capacity increase in 2-3% range vs. 4Q09[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]•[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]Expect 2010 fleet to remain roughly flat with 2009[/FONT][/FONT]
(Slide 13 of 15 at the BOA presentation this AM)
Here is the link to the full presentation.

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/Externa...9MzE1MTQ3OHxDaGlsZElEPTM4NjYzN3xUeXBlPTI=&t=1

Here is the link to listen to the entire presentation:

https://www.veracast.com/webcasts/bas/transportation2010/id26084380.cfm

Click on the webcast link.

Ok, 2 diiferent points of view.....The CFO and the CEO. Here is what G. Kelly supposedly said on CNBC a couple days ago (via Satpak77):



"almost exact quotes but may be slightly different...


- "No plans to fly international ourselves right now"

- "SW flies more business travellers in USA than any other airlines"

- "Open to more international codeshare partners but want to focus on Volaris partnership right now"

- "Charleston and Greenville-Spartanburg only new cities next year"



Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[chase]

The full video is here.

CNBC Interview with Gary Kelly

 

[chase]

I just looked at the nov sched as well. It reflects a roughly 3% cut to current flying. It looks as if it is good through mid-Jan. How is capacity growing when flights are being reduced? -800's??

I think Laura and Gary are using new math. On the upside, the slide show reiterates Gary's desire to use Volaris to fly to Mexico. Viva la Mexico!!

(It's sad when GIA can fly to several international destinations, one of which is an embargoed communist country, and SWA can't figure out how to fly to Vancouver and Cancun...)

Good question. The 2-3% increase of ASMs is based upon 2009 numbers, not the previous quarter. I don't have those figures in front of me right now but considering the gradual improvement each quarter as I recall since then, it is entirely feasible even with a reduction in flights, the ASMs will be up over last year.

Secondly, length of flights. Adding "miles" to legs flown, increasing long hauls, can get the 2-3% increase of ASMs which increases density of trips and adds $$ to the line totals. Adding flights is but one way to generate ASMs, increasing avg stage length is the other way.

OBTW, more flights could be added to the fall schedule that are not known right now. Revisions to the schedules are very common. With BOS doing well and more gates available there above the 3 gates we will have by Sept, certainly feasible more flights could be added there in time for the holidays or earlier.
just saying....

 

[Tanker Clown]

Just chatted with my buddy. He's the low down on why they aren't planning on hiring until 2012. First, there is a real risk of a double dip recession. While things are better, they aren't exactly great. Second, SWA may add seat miles (somewhat significantly) by replacing -500s/300s with -800s. If an older jet carries 120 pax is replaced by -800 that carries close to 180 there is quick 33% increase in seat miles without adding a single new person to the staff. Finally, after all the extra training is done, there will be a glut of pilots who don't have to go back through the school house. And therefore, a whole mess of folks to absorb any new flights added.

This is all before anyone buys/merges with another airline.

 

[Captzaahlie]

Well there you have it Barry Bananablow has sung.....

 

[Bigoober]

Also a reminder to put into this article. She is discussing this with analysts. The same analysts who put out material promoting or disputing the reasons to buy a stock and at what price. On the flip side of this, these are also the same people who here these presentations year in and year out, so some are able to cut through any BS that a company might be blowing. One has to be on their toes and passing out accurate information or they risk getting torn to shreds and having some wonder why the company is blowing smoke.

As mentioned above, the capacity increase is based on comparing it to last year in the same quarter. One can have capacity increase while reducing the number of flights based on schedule optimization which SWA has been running through for several months now. Adding -800s is just another piece of this puzzle. Shifting its current fleet from route to route is another.

Yes, things are improving. Will there be new classes around the turn of the year- I hope so but I still plan for the worst.

 

[Moon-dog]

Just chatted with my buddy. He's the low down on why they aren't planning on hiring until 2012. First, there is a real risk of a double dip recession. While things are better, they aren't exactly great. Second, SWA may add seat miles (somewhat significantly) by replacing -500s/300s with -800s. If an older jet carries 120 pax is replaced by -800 that carries close to 180 there is quick 33% increase in seat miles without adding a single new person to the staff. Finally, after all the extra training is done, there will be a glut of pilots who don't have to go back through the school house. And therefore, a whole mess of folks to absorb any new flights added.

This is all before anyone buys/merges with another airline.

Thanks TOAD, but riddle me this. Why is it that SWA manages to keep their plans very close hold until they actually go public, yet your high up buddy just sings like a bird to you? Does that make any sense at all? Not anymore than your usual info that could be pieced together from info that the sh1t sucker truck guy passes to you. Hope your shining personality doesn't show thru if you get an interview.