SWA plan for 15% ROIC

[jonjuan]

Any truth to the rumor around widget land that swa is having to send 717 crews to China for recurrent? Supposedly del duh bought all the stateside time.

Would they also have to fly there on delta? That would be interesting.

 

[tankerhead]

China would certainly be safer than crossing Godby and braving the walk to grab lunch at K & WTF.

 

[Cobraair75drvr]

That was the other part of the rumor.

UOTE=jonjuan;2382336]Would they also have to fly there on delta? That would be interesting.[/QUOTE]

 

[SWA Bubba]

Traditional WN pilot staffing is 10.2 pilots/airframe. Based on that number we would need 7140 pilots to staff a combined fleet of 700 airframes which leaves us overstaffed by roughly 700 pilots in 2015 with the roughly 200 WN retirments factored in. That is IF you buy into a flat fleet which I don't. It will take until mid 2020 for the WN retirements to get us down to that staffing number. How many millions of dollars do you really think the company is willing to spend training and employing excess pilots to sit around and fly very little just to save face and say that "we've never furloughed" ? 700 extra F/Os cost over $100 MILLION per year.

Dude. Seriously. Give it a rest.

Everyone knows your every post is about impending SWA furloughs. We all get it. You can stop yelling now. We all know that's what you're about; we just don't believe you. Nobody does. We see you're a pissed-off junior pilot who wants to see the worst in the situation. However, reality doesn't bear you out. Neither does any fact, or any statement or other indication given by any member of Southwest management. Nothing.

And to address your above post, you're wrong about "traditional pilot staffing." Pilot manning was 10.7 to 10.8 pilots per plane when -I-was hired in 2001, NOT 10.2 per plane. I realize that the 10.2 number you used was designed to fit your dire predictions (now you're making up your own facts), but it just isn't so. And, as the pilot force gets older (more medical leaves to cover) AND more senior (more vacation-weeks to cover), that 10.8 can only drift slowly upward.

Enough already. Okay?

Bubba

 

[scoreboardII]

700 extra F/Os cost over $100 MILLION per year.

Utter BS.

700 FO's at $100hr * 85hr/month * 12 months = $71M and change per year IF they sit doing nothing.

Subtract the training cost to recert those folks 9 months later when SWA decides they need more pilots:

Two weeks in DAL: 5TFP per day, Sim time: four events/4 hrs per, $10,000 pr hour of sim time, PC with very senior check airman $12,000.

Thats $350,000 in training pay, $28,000,000 in sim time, $8.4M in checkrides or about $35 mil to bring the guys back you could have kept flying min guarantee FOR FREE, not including the massive reduction in premium pay flown by the now swollen reserve lines. Saving just one percent of pilot payroll by not paying premium is about 10 times your estimate. The GO folks who run these numbers where probably born at night, just not last night.

GBJ, you're argument is as worthless as (audience fill in the blank).

 

[PCL_128]

scoreboardII, while I agree that there aren't going to be any furloughs, your math doesn't work. First, assuming furloughs of about 700 pilots as he claims, you also have to figure for the resultant captain displacements of about 350 captains. There's more cost savings. You also have to figure for the fringe benefit costs of the furloughed pilots. The typical airline pays about an extra 25% per pilot for all of the benefits and taxes that the company picks up. SWA is likely less, but they certainly aren't going to get to less than 15% extra. Once you factor it all in, his numbers might even be a little on the low side.

But again, I agree with you that furloughs aren't coming unless something really dire happens.

 

[Ty Webb]

Two weeks in DAL: 5TFP per day, Sim time: four events/4 hrs per, $10,000 pr hour of sim time, PC with very senior check airman $12,000.

SB2, Where does this figure come from?

I thought the Sim itself was closer to $700./hr . . . plus 2 trainee Pilots and a C/A.

If this is correct, then cost of training a crew is about $5,000. per day, so the cost of training each Pilot is probably closer to $2,500. per day, which means bringing each pilot back on line would cost closer to $15K, which amounts to about $10.5 Million ($15,000. x 700).

Still, there is much more to a furlough decision than just $$. I don't think you are going to see SWA furlough Pilots while they are profitable; barring a cataclysmic event, you're not going to see any furloughs, Chicken Little, err, excuse me, GBJ.

 

[dicko]

Any truth to the rumor around widget land that swa is having to send 717 crews to China for recurrent? Supposedly del duh bought all the stateside time.

No.

Since there are no 717 Simulators in China. Closest one is in Oz. Considering that rumor was started by a DALPA Rep, in print, on an update, it's kind of funny. Maybe he's geographically challenged.

 

[Ty Webb]

What happened to the Miami and Long Beach sims? Did they end up at Alteon in ATL, or somewhere else?

 

[dicko]

What happened to the Miami and Long Beach sims? Did they end up at Alteon in ATL, or somewhere else?

Dunno. Boeing says it has 717 sims in ATL, BNE, SEA and Stockholm.

 

[SWA Bubba]

scoreboardII, while I agree that there aren't going to be any furloughs, your math doesn't work. First, assuming furloughs of about 700 pilots as he claims, you also have to figure for the resultant captain displacements of about 350 captains. There's more cost savings. You also have to figure for the fringe benefit costs of the furloughed pilots. The typical airline pays about an extra 25% per pilot for all of the benefits and taxes that the company picks up. SWA is likely less, but they certainly aren't going to get to less than 15% extra. Once you factor it all in, his numbers might even be a little on the low side.

But again, I agree with you that furloughs aren't coming unless something really dire happens.

Also, GBJ is forgetting that all the flying these mythical "700 furloughees" did still has to be done by someone. He said the company's wasting $100 million dollars per year by employing 700 too many pilots. That's $143,000 per pilot per year, or the cost of paying them for all the flying they do. Well, get rid of those 700 pilots, and the flying still has to be done by the remaining pilots, thus still costing the company that same flying money. Actually even more, since the same hours of flying will be done by more senior pilots (higher rate), plus some portion of it at 1.5x premium. The only money the company would "save" is the cost of benefits/employee taxes paid per "furloughed" employee (non-flying expenses). And that would be probably be completely offset, if not way overcome, by higher flying pay as described above, and grossly higher training costs for downgrade training, requals, etc. Oh yeah, and let's not forget the furlough pay the company would have to pony up, averaging 300tfp per furloughed pilot (over $21 million), plus benefits for four months, etc.

The only months that Southwest is truly "overmanned" is January and February, in that lines fall slightly below the guarantee, causing the company to pay a coupla' tfp per pilot extra coded as "line guarantee." On the other hand, there's tons of premium flying in the summer, when we're "undermanned," and also there's still premium here and there during the rest of the year. That's the tradeoff the company made when it went to larger swings in flying from high to low season. They've run the numbers and decided that doing this is the most cost effective for the way they put up a flight schedule.

Barring God-knows what kind of circumstances that have never happened before, there will be NO furloughs. The company can't afford it.

Bubba

 

[waveflyer]

Your reasonableness will be lost on some Bubba

 

[scoreboardII]

The numbers most outsiders forget to look at, the difference between our min guarantee and what the average pilot flies. Min is 85, average is 105, which is a difference of 20%.

20% of 7000 pilots is 1400 pilots.

 

[HowardBorden]

The numbers most outsiders forget to look at, the difference between our min guarantee and what the average pilot flies. Min is 85, average is 105, which is a difference of 20%.

Let's also not forget where that increase comes from. OPEN TIME. I will not pick up ANY open time while any pilot is on furlough. SWA cannot fly its full schedule without pilots picking up open time.

 

[waveflyer]

Let's also not forget where that increase comes from. OPEN TIME. I will not pick up ANY open time while any pilot is on furlough. SWA cannot fly its full schedule without pilots picking up open time.

Yep- and my union and company could beg me to keep picking up and I wouldn't- I couldn't do that-

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

Many good points discussion here. My $100 Million was based on 5th year F/O pay at 90 TFP per month +15 percent for benefits. I re ran it and it came up to $99 Million. I understand the seasonal swings in our manning here. I think we are slightly overmanned in Sept and Oct as well since almost no one flys on F/O reserve. I don't see any Capt downgrades coming because we are not upgrading at nearly the same rate that we are bringing people over the partition. The 10.2 number I stated was given to me by a captain. Maybe the number really is 10.8. The issue is that a small change in the manning model number per aircraft or number of aircraft radically changes the date of when the break even point is with retirements. If the number really is 10.8 and we stay at 700 aircraft we most likely Won't furlough. That being said if the number is becomes 10.2 or 10.5 OR we end up with fewer airframes the math changes to where a furlough looks much more likely. The things that concern me are 1. That there is no commitment for replacement aircraft for retiring 300s. 2. That there are so many AAI pilots not flying not just seasonally but anually.

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

Last point the flying the missing pilots would have done in theory I suppose would be covered by building more productive trips like we see in the summer now.

 

[waveflyer]

I think you aren't seeing the commitment because you don't want to.

Seriously, how many companies could Gary go work for and make a whole LOT more money- you may not like his accountants worldview- but that doesn't make him Icahn- he believes this company is a family and values that more than anything. He has committed himself to us over and over and backed it up. How many companies didn't furlough after 9/11. Not Gary running the show you say? How many companies didn't furlough in 2009?

Now please, shut up and relax. Worry about what you control. Don't go buy your captain house no matter how good rates are- save money bc YOU'RE AN AIRLINE PILOT AND WE ALL SHOULD- and enjoy the ride man- go meet a Karla or Kelly and have some fun- you're in one of those dumbest of positions to have as close to a perfect career as you could ask and you certainly don't seem to be enjoying it- thereby PISSING ON ALL THOSE WHO ASPIRE TO BE WHERE YOU ARE.

GRATITUDE IS THE FOUNDATION OF HAPPINESS AND WEALTH.

 

[scoreboardII]

Gratitude? I thought courage is not the absence of fear? Man, you're confusing me...

Gbj, I was hired at 9. Something ratio, I have been told we could easily handle 11 plus at min guarantee.

Relax partner. And not in the way the Dr with a rubber glove says relax.

 

[waveflyer]

Ummm....

Can they both be true? Asks tony Robbins