swa new jet?

[stangdog]

maybe...
Airline may add new jet
Southwest is taking a 'close look' at the Embraer 190, CEO says

Dallas Morning News 11/13/03
author: Eric Torbenson
COPYRIGHT 2003 The Dallas Morning News, L.P.




Southwest Airlines Co.'s chief executive said Wednesday that he would take a "close look" at adding Embraer 190 aircraft to the fleet, a move that would give the carrier a second plane type for the first time in its 33-year history.

The 190 design "represents new technology" that could make operating the plane feasible for Southwest, said CEO Jim Parker in answering questions at an analyst conference in New York. But he added that a decision would be a long way off.

Southwest had previously considered flying 50-seat and 70-seat regional jets but found the costs unworkable.

And Mr. Parker added that it would be difficult to "walk away from having the advantages of operating a single type of aircraft." Mr. Parker wasn't at the conference himself, but answered questions through a phone link.

"We're very happy operating a single airplane type," he said.

Along with considering new planes, the Dallas-based low-fare carrier is currently thinking about several ways of changing how it flies, including the possibility of adding some sort of in-flight entertainment or possibly Internet access for some travelers.

Southwest had said in October that it was looking at different planes. But its executives hadn't confirmed that the Embraer 190 model was the likely candidate. The Brazilian plane maker hasn't even produced the new jet, which can be configured to carry about 100 passengers.

Small planes have higher costs when measured per seat, and Southwest has made money for 30 years by carefully controlling its costs. But a smaller plane type would open up more cities for Southwest service.

Rival JetBlue Airways Inc. has ordered 100 of the Embraer 190s, with options for 100 more, to complement its fleet of Airbus A320s.

Fort Worth-based American Airlines Inc. will eventually need a replacement in the 100-seat jet category as it retires the last of its Fokker F100 planes next year. Chief executive Gerard Arpey has said his carrier won't fly a 100-seat plane unless it can find a way to do it at similar costs to low-fare competitors such as JetBlue.

Shares of Southwest rose 41 cents to close at $18.82 in Wednesday trading.

At the same New York conference on Wednesday, Delta Air Lines Inc. said that its projected fourth-quarter loss would be higher than previously stated.

Michele Burns , chief financial officer for the Atlanta-based airline, said higher pilot pension costs would increase the range of the loss to between $365 million and $415 million from its earlier guidance of a loss of between $225 million and $275 million.

The difference comes from a $140 million noncash charge against earnings that Delta needs to take for its pilots, who are retiring in greater numbers than before. About 630 pilots have retired from Delta - normally about a third of that number retire on an annual basis - and many have taken lump-sum payouts on their retirement packages, and that's created more expense.

Delta has asked its pilots to take pay cuts, which may be the reason behind a lot of the early retirements. Pilots' pensions are set in part on how much they were earning right before retirement. Delta's pilots are the best-paid in the world, earning at least 40 percent more than their counterparts at American.

Delta operates a hub at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport and employs about 4,000 in North Texas to support that operation. Shares of Delta rose 14 cents to close at $12.56.

 

[SpeedBird]

"...a move that would give the carrier a second plane type for the first time in its 33-year history."


Southwest's First 2nd Type

 

[enigma]

"...a move that would give the carrier a second plane type for the first time in its 33-year history."


Southwest's First 2nd Type

The page wouldn't load, I'll bet that it was a three holer. The Austin Mueller barbershop used to have a picture of one of SWA's 727's hanging on the wall.

regards,
enigma

 

[SpeedBird]

Engima:

I'm sorry it doesn't load for you. Yes, it's a 727 taxiing out to takeoff from LAX circa 1983 courtesy of airliners.net.

 

[G4G5]

Lets hope they don't. Purchasing an ERJ-190 type will cost quite a few more dollars then a 737 type

 

[texanpilot]

Does Higher Power have a 190 sim?
Road trip to Brazil? I hear California is nice this time of year!

 

[zymotic]

Did SWA actually have 727's or is that one of those websites that doctors up airplanes with different paint jobs?

 

[SpeedBird]

It's the real thing. I'm old enough to remember seeing them fly around.....scary thing it doesn't seem that long ago.

 

[Joe Peeoznotz]

where's lowecur???

Close look?????????????

How far away will he stand? This is a conspiracy by lowecur to undermine the longstanding tradition of a great airline. Poor Mr. Parker doesn't know what he is saying. He has been duped by lowecur.

AAAAAAAAAAAAWWWWWWWWWWWWWWKKKKKKKKKK!!!

Look for the order..........Look for the order

AAAAAAAAAAAAWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWKKKKKKKKKKK!!!!!

Can this be happening? Where are my crackers with the red, blue, and gold prozac dip?

 

[lowecur]

casual look to close look

My, my how did I miss this thread?

As the drum beats louder for SWA pilots, the parrots must be choking on their crackers. I see also there is a rumor that the 737 type will not be necessary for an application.

A decision would be a long way off. Like maybe by June, Jim? Just what is you're definition of a long way off?

Heh, heh......."look for the order."

 

[Swerpipe]

Difference between listening and reading

I heard James Parker on the internet as he answered the 190 question. Interestingly enough when you listen to it as opposed to read it with some editorial hand behind it, the tone is a lot different.
Mr. Parker really stressed the ¨Southwest reluctance¨ to go to a two type fleet. He also stated that their study and decision was a ¨long way off¨.
A huge difference in this trade between Jet Blue and Southwest is that Jet Blue goes from 165 seats to 100 while Southwest goes from 137 to 100. While Jet Blue found that 1 cent in higher CASM was acceptable, Southwest may not. Before you go too far, has Southwest connected all the dots and got stablished in all the markets where the 737 works yet? I don´t think so...

Look for the order... Look for the order.... Ha Ha ha

 

[lowecur]

swerpipe

Nope, didn't listen to interview. He can be as reluctant as he wants, but that doesn't make him stupid. This deal has a very good chance of going down, and alot sooner than most people think.

The difference in the seats between the 320 & 190 compliment each other perfectly for the planned route structure. That's why I think the majority of the order for WN will be for the 86 seat 175. Now check out the difference between 137 and 86. It's pretty close to the 156 & 100 B6 comparison. This is the perfect a/c for WN to dominate with out of PHIL. It can accomodate the small market(low frequency) or the medium market(high frequency). As I said on a previous thread, WN covets the 40 gate regional terminal in PHIL now controlled by UAIR, not the 8 gates they will have in a few years at terminal E. If UAIR goes 7, watch how quickly WN asks the airport authority for all the gates in E. Next time your in PHIL, check out the convenience of terminal E to F (right next door).

Forget the CASM difference. The 733 probably has a 1 cent higher CASM than the 190. It's all about BELF for profit. These smaller cities will generate a higher RASM, therefore generating a greater "profit gap" between CASM/RASM.

Look Swerpipe, you secretly hope I'm right, because that means more jobs at WN. Stop pretending like this wouldn't be good for you. And yes, it would be great for WN.

Look for the order.

 

[flyingitalian]

Look Swerpipe, you secretly hope I'm right, because that means more jobs at WN. Stop pretending like this wouldn't be good for you. And yes, it would be great for WN.

Wrong again. While I dont think it (WN buying anything other than a larger 737) will happen unless they give us the jets (ie. low price), it means more LOWER paying jobs since the company will most certainly not want to pay as much to pilot these aircraft, and neither will JB. As a matter of fact its already been stated that JB management wants to pay less and since there is no union they certainly will pay less for these jobs. So imagine all new hires go to the erj at a lower rate and fo jobs stagnate and the really high paying 737 jobs do not grow. So overall lower income for the pilots. Look, people drive to WN for low fares and simplicity. WN structure is not feed and dispurse its point to point. The ERJ-EMB 190 175 or whatever does NOT fit.

Maybe Ill be eating my hat one day, but I dont wear it anyway.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

Lowecur,

What is the cost difference, per flight, of operating an 86 seat EMB vs. 100 seat EMB?

In other words is filling 60 of 86 seats a huge difference from filling 60 of 100 seats? (70% vs. 60% load factor)

Would the flexibility of offering more seats in hot markets make up the difference?

SWA always seems to make money with lower than normal loads.

 

[lowecur]

flyingitalian

Just curious, what kind of a discount under the 737 do you think Gary & Co would be willing to offer? I mean if an FO had the option to be a Captain on a 175 immediately or waiting a few more years for a 737 opening, he'd take the 737 option? If that's the case, I'm sure management would be glad to offer the job to new hires. Afterall, when B6 got started, many guys were hired as captain without having to "earn" their way up the ladder through the company.

I'm beginning to see this for what it really is. It's not about what's good for the company as a whole, it's about what's good for SWAPA. You guys are beginning to sound more and more like many of the other pilot groups out there - "Protect your gains at all costs." We must stand tall and not let the "evil" management team return us to the days of yesteryear.

One thing I've always admired about WN is the ability of all employee groups to work together for the good of the company. You guys have without a doubt the most equitable management team in the industry. Through their smarts and everyone's sacrafices for the last four decades, you've built this thing into an 800lb gorilla. Yet I'm beginning to see cracks appear. The slight tone of adversarial relationships is beginning to creep into the conversations that I read.

With size comes power, and with power comes contempt. Appreciate what a great management team you have, and trust them to make the right decisions.......they always have.

 

[lowecur]

flyboeingjets

Using a 500 mile trip, Embraer estimates the difference in trip costs between the 175 and 190 is about 21%. The seat cost difference is about 1%, meaning the CASM's are very close.

If both a/c have a CASM of close to 7.5 cents, this makes the 175 a much more economical a/c to fly on thinner routes. Let's use a RASM between Charleston, SC and PHIL of 14 cents with UAIR. If WN undercuts the RASM to 12.5 cents, they would have a BELF of 60%. That's 51 passengers to break even on the 175, and 60 on the 190. Doesn't seem like much, but believe me it adds up to tons of profits over the long haul. The 175 gives you the option of serving a smaller market than the 190, and still make a nice profit.

This is why I believe WN will make the majority of the order the 175. It gives them greater flexibility to go to more markets than B6. I also believe WN will order the 190 to take the place of the 25 or so 735's that are remaining.

 

[Hose A. Jiminez]

Its not the idea of SWA getting smaller jets that is bothering everyone as much as it is the constant flapping of your man pleaser.

 

[StopNTSing]

"We're very happy operating a single airplane type," he said.

I believe that pretty much sums it up.

 

[lowecur]

Hose A. Canusee????

By the dawns early light.

Joe, get a grip.

 

[bobbysamd]

New SW Type?

Very interesting, considering the industry example SW sets (and such a big deal made ) by operating only one type aircraft.

What I found even more interesting was that it operated B727s twenty years ago. Were B727 types and/or FEX certificates a hiring requirement ?

I liked the comment about Higher Power, etc. offering EMB types.

 

[flyingitalian]

lowecur.
you sold this as being "good" for the pilot group. Im simply stating that its not. I love it when outsiders look at WN group and say "yea they get along and have built an 800 lb gorilla." That does not mean we bend over and take it. We do work together and have a good relationship but make no mistake our biggest asset is the fact that we do ALL the flying, we are all paid the same, we can all fly all aircraft (except for 200, but its your choice not to fly it) and we have good scope protection.

We make money with a 60% load factor. We will not "replace" 500s, or 200s with similar seat aircraft because we would rather not have anything other than 137 seats. We have those aircraft because of buying opportunities in the past, and we started with the 200.

727s ran east west with pilots based in Dallas, starting and ending all trips with a DH. The put 149 seats so they would only have 3 FAs, but would put 4 in on fri and mon. Engineers were mechanics that were trained as engineers, and when they ran out of them they hired engineers with no other promise of employment. When they decided to get rid of the 727 they offered every engineer the opportunity to be a part of the pilot work force even if they were not qualified. Some took a leave for a year to get pilot training and then came back to WN and the company typed them in the 737 and they were on their way.

Everyone wants to point to seat mile cost, but ignores the real cost of running two types of aircraft. When you add the second type you have to have a second pilot force, second bidding process, second scheduling process, train pilots between two aircraft types, second training process including simulators, instructors, fleet manager, second maitenance training, parts inventory, ground training for workers, second jetway procedures, second set of FAA requirements..... and the list goes on and on. Here is an example of our simplicity. Jetway operators pull the jetway straight back about 4 feet. When I first got here I thought geeze thats not very far. Think about it if you have one type of aircraft and the ramp and pilots work together to put that same aircraft in the same spot all you do is pull straight back and forth of dock and un dock. A small example, but there are thousands of them that add up to WNs success.

The fact that WN has non of these is why we make money. It would have to be quite a good deal for WN to stray from the 737.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

Lowecur,

Thanks. 21% is pretty significant. It would also fit SWA's tradition of increasing frequencies into a market.


Everyone,

Sorry that opening my pie hole is offending, but I don't think any of us can anticipate what will happen more than 12 months lead time (if that) and I find the speculation interesting.

Southwest will emphasize its use of one aircraft type or whatever corporate identity it has until the very day it announces a change. They like to keep news under raps. An airline's strength nowadays is small size or flexibility.

Do we really doubt the rise of smaller jets? Regionals are getting more planes and mainlines are getting smaller. Who has a decent order on big planes? ATA, Airtran, SWA, and Continental have 737 orders. How about widebodies??

 

[ultrapilot]

The REAL story on LOWECUR!

Stop feeding this poster! Every time you reply to ANY post that “Lowecur” makes you feed it! Look back at all the post Lowecur has made and you will see that he is either someone in management, a salesman, or an employee of EMB trying to make any and everyone that will listen think that those are the greatest aircraft ever made for any flying purpose. WRONG!

Anyone with common sense well see through him and stop any thread that he replies to right there. Stop taking his flame bait. Every time you answer some bait he has put out he probably sits there and laughs at you for taking it while he thinks up something else for you to bite on. And then other members laugh at you for replying to his bait. Only we can stop him under his current name from agitating other board members.

Skip his replies, do not quote him, do not answer him and maybe eventually he will get tired of posting air and bring this board back to it’s original purpose of helping people instead of trying to name drop an aircraft that HE thinks someone should purchase.

 

[Snoopy58]

Ultra,

Concur.

The guy posts on Yahoo also trying to make EMB look like the greatest thing since sliced bread. Lots of great sounding "facts" and "analysis" that looks really cosmic, until someone posts a reality check. I had about 3/4 of a page of specific reasons his thesis is out to lunch on another thread, and he skipped all but a couple points (and he was wrong on those, too).

He did admit, though, that the airline that has announced ONE new city in the last 2 years would have to DOUBLE the size of their route structure for his arguments to have any validity. You judge that one for yourself.

The guy is a clown.

Snoopy.

 

[lowecur]

ultralite

Wow, if you can't carry on a discussion then just throw stones. I guess the reason I'm receiving such attention is your team hasn't come up with very many valid points.

This is a conspiracy, huh? You're right on two of the three. I'm in management, and I'm a salesman. The problem with your thesis is that I'm in the Insurance Business, not an employee of WN. I'd would luv to work for ERJ also, but I'm too old to go looking for another job and I don't speak the language.

Let me ask you, is your last name McCarthy, and did you have a relative named Joe?

 

[lowecur]

snoopy58

The parrot spokesman.

Over on Yahoo looking for ammo? Find any? Tell me Snoop, care to go over that realty check again? I didn't think so.

I think anyone with a brain can figure out that bringing the EMB 175/190 will make the whole airline better. Here's the PRO's of the change.

1. Better profit margins allowing company infrastructure to con-
tinue to flourish. Large profit sharing checks.
2. Put more pilots to work.
3. Allow existing 737 captains to maintain current contract well
into the future.
4. Install a 2nd pay scale for 175/190, and allow existing FO's to
bid for 175/190 Captain seats or wait for opening on 737.
5. Company stock is again considered a "growth stock", as stock
options for recent hires and new hires becomes meaningful.

Here's the CON's of staying the current path.

1. Flat to descending profits as costs continue to rise in the next
few years.
2. The goose that laid the golden egg will be strangled by the
continued addition of 737's to the fleet. Higher pilot costs will
cause the company to approach SWAPA for "give backs."
3. Company stock will face a reality check as the stock price of 38
times earnings will fade to 20 times earnings. Couple that with
lower earnings, and you have a stock price in the single digits.

Need I say more? Look for the order.

 

[Indapool]

Its not the idea of SWA getting smaller jets that is bothering everyone as much as it is the constant flapping of your man pleaser.

Best post I've ever read

 

[Joe Peeoznotz]

-aaaaawwwwwwwwwwkkkkkkkk-

LOWECUR BLACKLISTED

SQWAAAAAAKKKK!!!!

Oh my god, what if he's right.

SQWAAAAAAAAKKKKKKK!!!!!!