SWA Business plan Tanking..Did I miss something?

[Dumb Pilot]

we understand that you and everybody else has the crosshairs firming planted on our backs.

Jeez man, get some therapy

 

[Frank Lorenzo]

I can PROMISE you that this pilot group will be first in line to keep this company viable.

Music to my ears!

On behalf of greedy executives everywhere, I want to thank you for being there to cover managerial blunders.

I see no reason that the management team should have to pay for it.

 

[AA717driver]

Ummm... Southwest employees are probably some of the most productive and hard working employees out there. I believe they've worked DAMN hard over the years to get where they are.

Dude, chill! Some of us here were jumpseating with the SWA guys when you were reading "Dick and Jane" and dropping your pencil to try to look up Mary Katherine's skirt.

We know how hard SWA people worked to get where they are. Why do you think they are well liked? (Except for SWA FO, that is...)

They'll be fine--but just don't tell the newbies they will upgrade in 5 years so they won't be bitter and pissed off if they don't. TC

P.S.--Why is it that analysts are smart when they say something we want to hear but they're morons when they're talking smack about MY airline?

 

[On Your Six]

It's called "market share." Southwest will fly a route (even if they lose money on it) just to secure market share. Once they attract and establish a customer base on that route with extremely low fares, they'll start raising the fares enough to make a profit. This strategy is talked about in the book, "Nuts." That article was one person's opinion. I'm sure Gary Kelly and Southwest management know what they're doing!

That book was written before JetBlue, Skybus and VA existed. Plus, Air Tran, Spirit, Frontier and even Alaska were much smaller operations at that time. The competitive landscape is very different now.

Going forward, you will have many LCCs searching for growth (with no growth, stock prices will dive) with considerable pressure on yields from the upstarts. Have you seen how many airplanes SWA, Air Tran, VA, Jet Blue and Spirit have on order over the next year or two? That's a huge amount of capacity searching for growth. Meanwhile, you have the incumbants like Delta, UAL, AA, CAL and now NWA (leaving Chap 11 much stronger) who won't just lie down and die - they will fight to maintain market share. These legacies will continue to expand the use of lower-cost 70-90 seat RJs (these did not exist when NUTS was written). You see this with Delta using E170s and putting them on competing Air Tran routes - the E170s are just as comfortable for pax and yet the pax have access to Delta's worldwide route structure. Watch as Delta eventually adds lower-cost E190s (in addition to the growing stable of E170s and CR9s) and deploys them on competing Air Tran, SWA and Jet Blue routes all over the country (I presume the Delta pilots on the E190s will be paid wages similar to those paid the Delta Express 737-200 pilots pre-9/11).

The point is that the LCCs will increasingly compete with each other on overlapping routes while they search for growth and places to put their new capacity. Yields can not be maintained forever on increasingly competitive routes and profits will likely suffer - that's just logical. Watch what will happen in SFO as VA ramps up while SWA and Jet Blue enter that market to cut it off. That should be fun to watch - I doubt UAL will sit there and watch the battle without ensuring it maintains its diminishing piece of the domestic pie.

Boyd can knock Skybus and VA all he wants, but remember that Jet Blue was also very well funded years ago and its viability was called into question then too - you never know in this business... Fuel prices (and the ability to hedge fuel effectively) and currency exchange rates will continue to play a role for all airlines - nobody is immune including SWA. SWA's lack of IFE and its cattle-car boarding with unassigned seats won't help its cause either.

Bottom line, I don't think SWA will ever be hurt significantly, but it will no longer have the freedom to develop markets over time and its profit margins will likely not be as fat in the future - there are too many LCCs scrapping for its core market and the Legacies are deploying lower-cost 70-90 seat RJs to maintain market share and preserve international feed. Stock analysts will continue to look for growth and profitable LCC routes/markets will continue to attract competition with growing fleets and few good places to put those expensive airplanes... Should be interesting to watch.

That's my $0.02.


Again, Netjets/NJI would be a safer bet than a lot of these 121 carriers in my opinion. Netjets will always have wealthy customers willing to throw money around and it is the leader in its market by a very wide margin. I don't fly for Netjets, but if I didn't have my current gig I would certainly look into it.

 

[SWA GUY]

That book was written before JetBlue, Skybus and VA existed. Plus, Air Tran, Spirit, Frontier and even Alaska were much smaller operations at that time. The competitive landscape is very different now.

Going forward, you will have many LCCs searching for growth (with no growth, stock prices will dive) with considerable pressure on yields from the upstarts. Have you seen how many airplanes SWA, Air Tran, VA, Jet Blue and Spirit have on order over the next year or two? That's a huge amount of capacity searching for growth. Meanwhile, you have the incumbants like Delta, UAL, AA, CAL and now NWA (leaving Chap 11 much stronger) who won't just lie down and die - they will fight to maintain market share. These legacies will continue to expand the use of lower-cost 70-90 seat RJs (these did not exist when NUTS was written). You see this with Delta using E170s and putting them on competing Air Tran routes - the E170s are just as comfortable for pax and yet the pax have access to Delta's worldwide route structure. Watch as Delta eventually adds lower-cost E190s (in addition to the growing stable of E170s and CR9s) and deploys them on competing Air Tran, SWA and Jet Blue routes all over the country (I presume the Delta pilots on the E190s will be paid wages similar to those paid the Delta Express 737-200 pilots pre-9/11).

The point is that the LCCs will increasingly compete with each other on overlapping routes while they search for growth and places to put their new capacity. Yields can not be maintained forever on increasingly competitive routes and profits will likely suffer - that's just logical. Watch what will happen in SFO as VA ramps up while SWA and Jet Blue enter that market to cut it off. That should be fun to watch - I doubt UAL will sit there and watch the battle without ensuring it maintains its diminishing piece of the domestic pie.

Boyd can knock Skybus and VA all he wants, but remember that Jet Blue was also very well funded years ago and its viability was called into question then too - you never know in this business... Fuel prices (and the ability to hedge fuel effectively) and currency exchange rates will continue to play a role for all airlines - nobody is immune including SWA. SWA's lack of IFE and its cattle-car boarding with unassigned seats won't help its cause either.

Bottom line, I don't think SWA will ever be hurt significantly, but it will no longer have the freedom to develop markets over time and its profit margins will likely not be as fat in the future - there are too many LCCs scrapping for its core market and the Legacies are deploying lower-cost 70-90 seat RJs to maintain market share and preserve international feed. Stock analysts will continue to look for growth and profitable LCC routes/markets will continue to attract competition with growing fleets and few good places to put those expensive airplanes... Should be interesting to watch.

That's my $0.02.


Again, Netjets/NJI would be a safer bet than a lot of these 121 carriers in my opinion. Netjets will always have wealthy customers willing to throw money around and it is the leader in its market by a very wide margin. I don't fly for Netjets, but if I didn't have my current gig I would certainly look into it.

:::::::::Yawn::::::: Zzzzzzzzzzz...

I wound't give $0.01 for your $0.02.

 

[On Your Six]

:::::::::Yawn::::::: Zzzzzzzzzzz...

I wound't give $0.01 for your $0.02.

You impress me with your ability to debate. Do you agree or disagree? If you disagree, I'd love to hear why... But I doubt you can articulate a logical response.

The competitive environment has changed and you need to deal with it.... Adding more SWA airplanes ain't gonna cut it with so much competition and profitable routes being targeted. Maybe you could start with your lame cattle-car boarding process (NOBODY LIKES IT) and lack of IFE. By the way, the FA jokes get annoying after awhile. Can't wait to see the Virgin America FAs and IFE - they will set the standard.

 

[The Victors]

You impress me with your ability to debate. Do you agree or disagree? If you disagree, I'd love to hear why... But I doubt you can articulate a logical response.

The competitive environment has changed and you need to deal with it.... Adding more SWA airplanes ain't gonna cut it with so much competition and profitable routes being targeted. Maybe you could start with your lame cattle-car boarding process (NOBODY LIKES IT) and lack of IFE. By the way, the FA jokes get annoying after awhile. Can't wait to see the Virgin America FAs and IFE - they will set the standard.

I'll say it again and again. You're hoping for the demise of the only successful carrier out there. (In terms of profit and employee wages and benefits). You cant wait to see VA. Are you an total idiot? You cant wait to see a start up come in paying their employees pennies and undercut good carriers? Swa will be fine. Again, you might get what your wishing for...swa will cut costs with employee consessions and then everyone can have substandard wages. Why dont you think for just a second? Why dont you realize how stupid that article is and for swa to keep on succeeding and then soon, maybe, everyone can go UP (what a concept) to higher wages again.

 

[bigakl]

What we need to do is take corrective steps like DAL and AMR!!!!!


ummmmm ok...that sounds like a GREAT IDEA!

 

[On Your Six]

I'll say it again and again. You're hoping for the demise of the only successful carrier out there. (In terms of profit and employee wages and benefits). You cant wait to see VA. Are you an total idiot? You cant wait to see a start up come in paying their employees pennies and undercut good carriers? Swa will be fine. Again, you might get what your wishing for...swa will cut costs with employee consessions and then everyone can have substandard wages. Why dont you think for just a second? Why dont you realize how stupid that article is and for swa to keep on succeeding and then soon, maybe, everyone can go UP (what a concept) to higher wages again.

I am not hoping for anything - and I would certainly never wish for SWA's demise - it won't happen. I have many friends there. You need to remove emotion from the equation.

I am refering to the changing competitive environment and how that can impact SWA and the other LCCs going forward - get it? Do you disagree with my points about increasing competition and reduced margins going forward? I'd love to hear a counter argument if someone could articulate one - but I highly doubt it. I'm no expert but I'd love to hear other opinions.

I was a part of this industry at one point too and I watch it closely because I still have many friends flying for all of the major carriers.

 

[328dude]

I am not hoping for anything - and I would certainly never wish for SWA's demise - it won't happen. I have many friends there. You need to remove emotion from the equation.

I am refering to the changing competitive environment and how that can impact SWA and the other LCCs going forward - get it? Do you disagree with my points about increasing competition and reduced margins going forward? I'd love to hear a counter argument if someone could articulate one - but I highly doubt it. I'm no expert but I'd love to hear other opinions.

I was a part of this industry at one point too and I watch it closely because I still have many friends flying for all of the major carriers.

I'm to old to worry about it. I just fly the plane and let the other guys make the big decisions. Do you keep yourself up at night wondering about this stuff?