Stockholm Syndrome: when legacy pilots agree that an a/c CANNOT be flown by mainline

[waveflyer]

Speedtape - I know you have your rationalizations. But don't for a minute believe your own bullsh/t.

Outsourcing affects every pilot at all seniority levels-

Anyone read his post and not understand why I call DALPA sellouts?

 

[Speedtape]

I believe waveflyer is SWA... Will never happen, DAL guys have never shown that they can't look past their own ego. They had the perfect opportunity when DAL purchased Comair and ASA 13 yrs ago.... If it is a 777 or a C152, bottom line, if says Delta on the side, a DAL pilot should be flying it and that goes for all carriers. One list, one voice, one contract. But this is the real world, pilots will be pilots...

Yes they will; thus the whole history of the B scale, relief on scope, and the age 65 issue are just some of the examples!

 

[Speedtape]

Speedtape - I know you have your rationalizations. But don't for a minute believe your own bullsh/t.

Outsourcing affects every pilot at all seniority levels-

Anyone read his post and not understand why I call DALPA sellouts?

Obviously, you are in the bottom 10%?

 

[PCL_128]

Obviously, you are in the bottom 10%?

He doesn't even work at Delta. He's a SWA pilot.

 

[Jar Jar]

Facts:
This TA reduces the # of RJ seats flown by 16.2%. A total of 5830 seats are removed. A total of 153 aircraft are removed. The average seats per outsourced airframes increases by 12.4%.

Analysis:

If this trend is replicated exactly in terms of percentages (not numbers) each subsequent contract these will be the results:

Average # of seats per outsourced airframe / Total # of outsourced airframes:
Current: 59.98 / 603
TA2012: 67.42 / 450
2017: 75.78 / 377
2022: 85.17 / 316
2027: 95.74 / 264
2032: 107.61 / 221

Trend replicated in terms of total numbers (not percentages):

Average # of seats per outsourced airframe / Total # of outsourced airframes:
Current: 59.98 / 603
TA2012: 67.42 / 450
2017: 75.78 / 297
2022: 85.17 / 144
2027: 95.74 / -9
2032: 107.61 / -162 (read on to see why im using negatives)

Averaging the differences between percentages and total numbers gives us a fair idea of what could be expected in future contracts if the current negotiating environment remains the same:

Average Seats @ DCI / Total Airframes at DCI (rounded to nearest whole #)
Current: 60 / 603
TA2012: 67 / 450
2017: 76 / 337
2022: 85 / 230
2027: 96 / 127
2032: 108 / 30

All I'm doing is projecting a straight line from where DAL is today to where they will be on scope when they pass this TA - then drawing it forward through the next cycles.


Opinion:
Based on the cyclic history of the airline industry I think that the odds of maintaining the current economic conditions that this TA was negotiated under for 25 additional years is nil to negative.

I do believe your TA has gains, but I'd say given the environment they are astonishingly minor.

 

[Dan Roman]

Speedtape made a good counterpoint. The reality is feed is a very good thing and does in fact allow for expansion. A certain amount of RJ feed creates jobs, not kills them. And yes the jobs they create are on larger A/C at much higher wages for mainline pilots (why is that a bad thing). I also don't think it's economically feasible to absorb the cost of keeping the RJ flying on property and the transient jobs they would provide.
The gray area of course, is when does that become job outsourcing and were do you draw the line? None of us on here really know were that line is. Looking from the sidelines it does seem like DAL let if got too far, but,
it seems like this TA is addressing that. Obviously ALPA can't just insist on all RJ flying to just go away immediately, unless they want to see DAL lose a lot of money and furlough a bunch of pilots.
It's never as black and white as some want to make it.

Wave, how do you reconcile the fact that SWAPA was willing to outsource all 737 international expansion to Mexico and Canada at SWA? That would be like DAL saying they were going to allow all European 767 flying be done by another carrier. Seems to me that's a bigger "sellout".

 

[waveflyer]

Dan, if you want to talk about SWA and outsourcing , begin a thread and do your bs there-
You do know that swa is my 6th airline?
I'm talking about a subject that affected me and thousands of my peers- if you want to distract from that, do it somewhere else.

Ps- if Hawaiian replaced all their 717 inter-island flying with outsourced RJs, you'd be good with that???.

This isn't just about DALPA and delta. It's a reaffirmation of outsourced -900's becoming industry standard by the most profitable and influential pilot union we have in the world, at a time when AA is in bankruptcy and seeking to make 80+ seats it's new normal, and when UniCal is fighting like hell to hold onto what scope it has- the implications are global-
Where if Delta can figure out how to create a -900 mainline program for all new -900's transitioning the rest as contracts expire, that would support united and american in their scope battles-
If delta, as the most profitable legacy, caves on this, it will give leverage to unical mgmt, and show the AA bk judge what is acceptable for profitable companies, therefore bk AA ought to outsource 80-90 seats as they are asking for.

PCL claims correctly that we all piggyback and pattern bargain- but the implications from delta are farther reaching than just delta's situation reducing its 50's-
It gives leverage to all other carriers trying to outsource bigger planes

 

[CFIT]

Facts:
This TA reduces the # of RJ seats flown by 16.2%. A total of 5830 seats are removed. A total of 153 aircraft are removed. The average seats per outsourced airframes increases by 12.4%.





Have the DALPA balloon knots ever considered that the CRJ 200's are going away no matter what?

Even if gas was free-

Even if regional pilots paid a hundred bucks an hour just to sit in them-

Even if they were the highest profit margin equipement flying-

They are still going away.

Why?

Because they are done at 40,000 cycles. Nothing can be done with them after that.

And I know at Skywest, many have been sent to the desert for just that reason.


But just keep telling yourself that you are taking back scope.......

 

[Gillegan]

There has been growth in the last 20 years but it has largely been at the regionals - for the aforementioned slave wages. I would expect a concerted effort to address the numbers while minimizing the pay. Look for modest improvements in regional pay and a big effort to attack scope along with creative ways to get around the training (MPL?). Supply and demand should mean an improvement in pay but ironically, the inflexibility of the unions may actually slow down the pay increases as the pilots, stung by the stagnation of the last 15-20 years opt for stability and long term contracts over rolling the dice. And don't forget, the Railway Labor Act is geared to maintain the status quo.

That is something I wrote a while back regarding the upcoming pilot shortage and didn't really want to restate it but I think it's relevant for this discussion. In the larger picture, the legacies are looking at some big pilot recruitment numbers over the next 15 years and some pretty big costs associated with them. This is how they plan to address it - SCOPE. I really think that what's happening right now is a case of who gets their foot in the door first (larger planes outsourced). It might behoove the unions to do what they can to get the flying back to the legacies now, even if we have to hold our noses to do it.

 

[Speedtape]

The reality is, scope is necessary, but so is outsourcing as long as one Airline does it. What some are asking of DALPA is not even possible. And, why do you care when you gain an industry leading contract?

Feed is critical, outsourcing to get that feed is pivotal, and improved mainline pay and benefits is the goal! Delta has a coveted position and future in this industry because all these factors are components of their success.

It translates into a bright future for every pilot on the seniority list and those yet to be hired in the future!

DALPA achieved a formula for success in record time! There will be many new opportunities for even further growth on the horizon! You can not achieve those if you are grid-locked in negotiation hell for issues that if settled to some pilot's satisfaction would have predictable consequences that would handicap your potential. One only has to look to Phoenix and Charlotte for where that will take you.

Keep your eye on the ball. Celebrate the gains, look to the future, and don't get mired down in the goals that were unachieveable, and would have handicapped your success. Your loyalties are to your pilot group and the success of your Company.

You have no obligation to other pilots groups, especially one based in Dallas, who wants you to level the playing field so they can pick your pocket. Their day is coming and Atlanta is the battlefield!