Stockholm Syndrome: when legacy pilots agree that an a/c CANNOT be flown by mainline

[Jar Jar]

The reality is, scope is necessary, but so is outsourcing as long as one Airline does it.

Disagree.

All you need is one mgmt team with cajones to put up a national ad campaign that says "We dont outsource our pilots"

That should do the trick.

 

[Gillegan]

Speedtape,
I agree with you that "just say no" doesn't work. In fact, I'll go one further and say that popular pilot sentiment rarely takes into account the economic realities of running a business. Where we differ is what is happening today. I came to my conclusion by asking, "what would I do if I was running an airline and facing the huge pilot deficit numbers that appear to be coming?". I would try to mitigate my costs by outsourcing and reducing the barriers to entry - scope and MPL. I think that pilot unions need to look closer at how to make it economical to bring those jobs back to the legacies. I believe there are long term benefits to the profession to do so. The legacy pilots missed out on the expansion of the 90's due to allowing the RJ flying to be farmed out. The regional pilots hardly benefitted as they were all of a sudden stuck in what was supposed to be a stepping stone job with crap pay and benefits. Even the airlines themselves missed out as they were suckered in to buying lots of aircraft with high fuel/seat costs. As the price of fuel rises, the trend is going to be towards bigger aircraft. The airlines are going to try to minimize the cost of those larger aircraft by going with what they know has worked in the past - cheap regional pilots flying them. This will end up playing out with the legacies flying the wide bodies and the regionals flying the narrow bodies - at least until they can figure out how to farm out the wide bodies. The narrow body families of aircraft will continue to span the 100 - 180 seat range. The next step is going to be allowing the regionals to fly the 100 seaters (AMR). Then all it will take is some arbitrator somewhere to agree that it makes sense to allow them to fly the larger variants since the planes are "almost identical".

I'm arguing for some more creativity on all sides. It's not 1975 anymore. There has been a fundemental change in the economics of our profession. It sucks but it is what it is. I do think that right now is an opportunity. I'm not arguing for strikes or anything but rather to address the economic issues that are barriers to bringing that flying back.

 

[flyboyike]

In the end, some mainline pilots (junior pilots) will still be upset and vote no! However, because of the negotiated pay rates on the larger, traditional mainline airplanes are so improved, the majority of the pilots will vote yes!

All well and good until the only traditional mainline airplane left is the 747-800.

 

[Speedtape]

Speedtape,
I agree with you that "just say no" doesn't work. In fact, I'll go one further and say that popular pilot sentiment rarely takes into account the economic realities of running a business. Where we differ is what is happening today. I came to my conclusion by asking, "what would I do if I was running an airline and facing the huge pilot deficit numbers that appear to be coming?". I would try to mitigate my costs by outsourcing and reducing the barriers to entry - scope and MPL. I think that pilot unions need to look closer at how to make it economical to bring those jobs back to the legacies. I believe there are long term benefits to the profession to do so. The legacy pilots missed out on the expansion of the 90's due to allowing the RJ flying to be farmed out. The regional pilots hardly benefitted as they were all of a sudden stuck in what was supposed to be a stepping stone job with crap pay and benefits. Even the airlines themselves missed out as they were suckered in to buying lots of aircraft with high fuel/seat costs. As the price of fuel rises, the trend is going to be towards bigger aircraft. The airlines are going to try to minimize the cost of those larger aircraft by going with what they know has worked in the past - cheap regional pilots flying them. This will end up playing out with the legacies flying the wide bodies and the regionals flying the narrow bodies - at least until they can figure out how to farm out the wide bodies. The narrow body families of aircraft will continue to span the 100 - 180 seat range. The next step is going to be allowing the regionals to fly the 100 seaters (AMR). Then all it will take is some arbitrator somewhere to agree that it makes sense to allow them to fly the larger variants since the planes are "almost identical".

I'm arguing for some more creativity on all sides. It's not 1975 anymore. There has been a fundemental change in the economics of our profession. It sucks but it is what it is. I do think that right now is an opportunity. I'm not arguing for strikes or anything but rather to address the economic issues that are barriers to bringing that flying back.

I like what you framed up. I think we can all agree that there is a looming pilot shortage. Having looked at retirements at USAir, American, and Delta, (couldn't find UAL numbers) with the order being the airline with the most retirements in the next 10 years, the retirements alone will absorb a majority of the available regional airline pool! Most regional pilots want to move to the Majors and this will happen, based on retirements alone. This does not even take into account any growth. Demand will outweigh supply!

Having said that, there will only be a limited number of pilots, who, for whatever reason, stay at the regionals. But because of the mass exodus of the regional pilots, and very small numbers of military pilots that take the available mainline jobs, the regionals will shrink because they will not be able to staff the regional jobs!

In summary, don't waste negotiating capital trying to "take it all in", which is impossible and want happen! The outsourcing issue will be eliminated or greatly mitigated by the staffing demands of retirement alone. In the next few years when retirements accelerate, there will be a tremendous shortage on the regional level causing outsourcing to evaporate.

To exacerbate the above issue, entry level requirements in this profession (training costs in the $100K range and the regulated time requirements) will stifle the ability to supply pilots to the pipeline.

So, relax and take a deep breath for those who want scope tightened, the solution will be the result of economics in the near future!

Don't waste negotiating capital on scope! Put that capital in your contract and pockets now!

 

[flyboyike]

I like what you framed up. I think we can all agree that there is a looming pilot shortage. Having looked at retirements at USAir, American, and Delta, (couldn't find UAL numbers) with the order being the airline with the most retirements in the next 10 years, the retirements alone will absorb a majority of the available regional airline pool! Most regional pilots want to move to the Majors and this will happen, based on retirements alone. This does not even take into account any growth. Demand will outweigh supply!

I've been hearing that (or some version thereof) since before my first solo. Still waiting.

 

[Speedtape]

Look at retirement forecasts, demand, newly regulated time requirments, the cost of training, and the dried up pipeline! What is coming will do far more to end outsourcing than any negotiations. Why waste the capital and instead get the best pay and other benefits possible. DALPA just did everyone a big favor by raising the bar! Catch the wave or drown in your useless rants about outsourcing. The outsourcing issue will be resolved unless they automate flight in pilot-less RJs, and I am not sure anyone is ready for that ride!

 

[jayme]

Why waste the capital and instead get the best pay and other benefits possible. DALPA just did everyone a big favor by raising the bar! Catch the wave or drown in your useless rants about outsourcing. The outsourcing issue will be resolved unless they automate flight in pilot-less RJs, and I am not sure anyone is ready for that ride!

You are an idiot. Mpl will ensure that every pilot seat will be filled.

Delta pilots: we are begging you to fight for the future of the profession. Let the 50's die on the vine. 70's go to mainline as leases expire.

Every pilot who votes yes on this ta is complicit in the destruction of the proud profession that your predecessors built.

 

[General Lee]

Nobody likes outsourcing. I wish Dalpa and the pilots would not have let this get out of hand from the beginning. Throw in a BK, and it got worse. Those are the facts. Now where are we today? We still have a lot of 50 seat RJs, and many are getting close to their cycle limit. Some though, have continued lease payments through 2024. Do you want to keep a lot of them if they lose money for Delta? What about at UAL/CAL? Do you want to keep planes that lose money in high oil? Maybe a 70 seater or even a 76 seater might be able to turn a profit on that Monroe to IAH route? Could a 717 or 737 make a profit on that route? Maybe not. I know you want mainline pilots to fly those planes. What are the costs for putting them on the mainline certificate? Would the FAs and mechanics be mainline? Those costs would be twice what Regionals are doing now. I want mainline to profit so they can afford to buy some new wide bodies to take on Emirates and Singapore Airlines. I want to make $280 an hour in the left seat of a 777 or 744.

This TA sets actual limits and ratios that will benefit mainline pilots and mainline economics. 717s will come in and be tied to 70 76 seaters coming in, while dumping and capping 50 seaters at 125, dumping 150 of them. Then throw in better sick leave, better work rules, better INTL scope and domestic codeshare scope,an early out program to try to get the top 300 pilots to early out, and a 19.5% raise in only 3 years, and I would say it might be an easy choice. Going back to recapture scope would be prohibitively expensive, and setting up our own 76 seat program would be twice the cost of current regional lift. Again, it's better to get a hard cap on RJ numbers, a ratio that favors mainline in domestic flying vs DCI, and improve other scope that could be even more dangerous to all of our careers.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[waveflyer]

GenLee sellout- happy memorial day- ill get to you when I'm done with our 4th scotch- one for each passed family member who served-
Amazing you admit so freely your sellout ways- but now is not the time-

Have a good holiday tomorrow and fly safe if you're working- to all who served-
Thank you for that service.

 

[General Lee]

GenLee sellout- happy memorial day- ill get to you when I'm done with our 4th scotch- one for each passed family member who served-
Amazing you admit so freely your sellout ways- but now is not the time-

Have a good holiday tomorrow and fly safe if you're working- to all who served-
Thank you for that service.

Easy on the scotch Wave, you are already sounding drunk. I am not selling out, rather being practical with what our industry is doing today, and ensuring less total RJs, giving a hard ratio that favors mainline vs DCI, ensures growth thanks to your 717s being tied to any new 76 seaters, and finally tightening other scope that you are familiar with, INTL scope and AK scope.

If you want to talk about selling out, look at your policy about having a type rating to get hired off the street. 90% of your newhires off the street have to pay $8000 or more to qualify. That is selling out the entire industry, telling management that that ridiculous policy is OK. No, no it's not. Then you guys hosed the AirTran guys. Drink another scotch and then defend those two actions. Have a good Memorial Day.


Bye Bye---General Lee