Stockholm Syndrome: when legacy pilots agree that an a/c CANNOT be flown by mainline

[Jar Jar]

The reality is, scope is necessary, but so is outsourcing as long as one Airline does it.

Disagree.

All you need is one mgmt team with cajones to put up a national ad campaign that says "We dont outsource our pilots"

That should do the trick.

 

[Gillegan]

Speedtape,
I agree with you that "just say no" doesn't work. In fact, I'll go one further and say that popular pilot sentiment rarely takes into account the economic realities of running a business. Where we differ is what is happening today. I came to my conclusion by asking, "what would I do if I was running an airline and facing the huge pilot deficit numbers that appear to be coming?". I would try to mitigate my costs by outsourcing and reducing the barriers to entry - scope and MPL. I think that pilot unions need to look closer at how to make it economical to bring those jobs back to the legacies. I believe there are long term benefits to the profession to do so. The legacy pilots missed out on the expansion of the 90's due to allowing the RJ flying to be farmed out. The regional pilots hardly benefitted as they were all of a sudden stuck in what was supposed to be a stepping stone job with crap pay and benefits. Even the airlines themselves missed out as they were suckered in to buying lots of aircraft with high fuel/seat costs. As the price of fuel rises, the trend is going to be towards bigger aircraft. The airlines are going to try to minimize the cost of those larger aircraft by going with what they know has worked in the past - cheap regional pilots flying them. This will end up playing out with the legacies flying the wide bodies and the regionals flying the narrow bodies - at least until they can figure out how to farm out the wide bodies. The narrow body families of aircraft will continue to span the 100 - 180 seat range. The next step is going to be allowing the regionals to fly the 100 seaters (AMR). Then all it will take is some arbitrator somewhere to agree that it makes sense to allow them to fly the larger variants since the planes are "almost identical".

I'm arguing for some more creativity on all sides. It's not 1975 anymore. There has been a fundemental change in the economics of our profession. It sucks but it is what it is. I do think that right now is an opportunity. I'm not arguing for strikes or anything but rather to address the economic issues that are barriers to bringing that flying back.

 

[flyboyike]

In the end, some mainline pilots (junior pilots) will still be upset and vote no! However, because of the negotiated pay rates on the larger, traditional mainline airplanes are so improved, the majority of the pilots will vote yes!

All well and good until the only traditional mainline airplane left is the 747-800.

 

[Speedtape]

Speedtape,
I agree with you that "just say no" doesn't work. In fact, I'll go one further and say that popular pilot sentiment rarely takes into account the economic realities of running a business. Where we differ is what is happening today. I came to my conclusion by asking, "what would I do if I was running an airline and facing the huge pilot deficit numbers that appear to be coming?". I would try to mitigate my costs by outsourcing and reducing the barriers to entry - scope and MPL. I think that pilot unions need to look closer at how to make it economical to bring those jobs back to the legacies. I believe there are long term benefits to the profession to do so. The legacy pilots missed out on the expansion of the 90's due to allowing the RJ flying to be farmed out. The regional pilots hardly benefitted as they were all of a sudden stuck in what was supposed to be a stepping stone job with crap pay and benefits. Even the airlines themselves missed out as they were suckered in to buying lots of aircraft with high fuel/seat costs. As the price of fuel rises, the trend is going to be towards bigger aircraft. The airlines are going to try to minimize the cost of those larger aircraft by going with what they know has worked in the past - cheap regional pilots flying them. This will end up playing out with the legacies flying the wide bodies and the regionals flying the narrow bodies - at least until they can figure out how to farm out the wide bodies. The narrow body families of aircraft will continue to span the 100 - 180 seat range. The next step is going to be allowing the regionals to fly the 100 seaters (AMR). Then all it will take is some arbitrator somewhere to agree that it makes sense to allow them to fly the larger variants since the planes are "almost identical".

I'm arguing for some more creativity on all sides. It's not 1975 anymore. There has been a fundemental change in the economics of our profession. It sucks but it is what it is. I do think that right now is an opportunity. I'm not arguing for strikes or anything but rather to address the economic issues that are barriers to bringing that flying back.

I like what you framed up. I think we can all agree that there is a looming pilot shortage. Having looked at retirements at USAir, American, and Delta, (couldn't find UAL numbers) with the order being the airline with the most retirements in the next 10 years, the retirements alone will absorb a majority of the available regional airline pool! Most regional pilots want to move to the Majors and this will happen, based on retirements alone. This does not even take into account any growth. Demand will outweigh supply!

Having said that, there will only be a limited number of pilots, who, for whatever reason, stay at the regionals. But because of the mass exodus of the regional pilots, and very small numbers of military pilots that take the available mainline jobs, the regionals will shrink because they will not be able to staff the regional jobs!

In summary, don't waste negotiating capital trying to "take it all in", which is impossible and want happen! The outsourcing issue will be eliminated or greatly mitigated by the staffing demands of retirement alone. In the next few years when retirements accelerate, there will be a tremendous shortage on the regional level causing outsourcing to evaporate.

To exacerbate the above issue, entry level requirements in this profession (training costs in the $100K range and the regulated time requirements) will stifle the ability to supply pilots to the pipeline.

So, relax and take a deep breath for those who want scope tightened, the solution will be the result of economics in the near future!

Don't waste negotiating capital on scope! Put that capital in your contract and pockets now!

 

[flyboyike]

I like what you framed up. I think we can all agree that there is a looming pilot shortage. Having looked at retirements at USAir, American, and Delta, (couldn't find UAL numbers) with the order being the airline with the most retirements in the next 10 years, the retirements alone will absorb a majority of the available regional airline pool! Most regional pilots want to move to the Majors and this will happen, based on retirements alone. This does not even take into account any growth. Demand will outweigh supply!

I've been hearing that (or some version thereof) since before my first solo. Still waiting.

 

[Speedtape]

Look at retirement forecasts, demand, newly regulated time requirments, the cost of training, and the dried up pipeline! What is coming will do far more to end outsourcing than any negotiations. Why waste the capital and instead get the best pay and other benefits possible. DALPA just did everyone a big favor by raising the bar! Catch the wave or drown in your useless rants about outsourcing. The outsourcing issue will be resolved unless they automate flight in pilot-less RJs, and I am not sure anyone is ready for that ride!

 

[jayme]

Why waste the capital and instead get the best pay and other benefits possible. DALPA just did everyone a big favor by raising the bar! Catch the wave or drown in your useless rants about outsourcing. The outsourcing issue will be resolved unless they automate flight in pilot-less RJs, and I am not sure anyone is ready for that ride!

You are an idiot. Mpl will ensure that every pilot seat will be filled.

Delta pilots: we are begging you to fight for the future of the profession. Let the 50's die on the vine. 70's go to mainline as leases expire.

Every pilot who votes yes on this ta is complicit in the destruction of the proud profession that your predecessors built.

 

[General Lee]

Nobody likes outsourcing. I wish Dalpa and the pilots would not have let this get out of hand from the beginning. Throw in a BK, and it got worse. Those are the facts. Now where are we today? We still have a lot of 50 seat RJs, and many are getting close to their cycle limit. Some though, have continued lease payments through 2024. Do you want to keep a lot of them if they lose money for Delta? What about at UAL/CAL? Do you want to keep planes that lose money in high oil? Maybe a 70 seater or even a 76 seater might be able to turn a profit on that Monroe to IAH route? Could a 717 or 737 make a profit on that route? Maybe not. I know you want mainline pilots to fly those planes. What are the costs for putting them on the mainline certificate? Would the FAs and mechanics be mainline? Those costs would be twice what Regionals are doing now. I want mainline to profit so they can afford to buy some new wide bodies to take on Emirates and Singapore Airlines. I want to make $280 an hour in the left seat of a 777 or 744.

This TA sets actual limits and ratios that will benefit mainline pilots and mainline economics. 717s will come in and be tied to 70 76 seaters coming in, while dumping and capping 50 seaters at 125, dumping 150 of them. Then throw in better sick leave, better work rules, better INTL scope and domestic codeshare scope,an early out program to try to get the top 300 pilots to early out, and a 19.5% raise in only 3 years, and I would say it might be an easy choice. Going back to recapture scope would be prohibitively expensive, and setting up our own 76 seat program would be twice the cost of current regional lift. Again, it's better to get a hard cap on RJ numbers, a ratio that favors mainline in domestic flying vs DCI, and improve other scope that could be even more dangerous to all of our careers.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[waveflyer]

GenLee sellout- happy memorial day- ill get to you when I'm done with our 4th scotch- one for each passed family member who served-
Amazing you admit so freely your sellout ways- but now is not the time-

Have a good holiday tomorrow and fly safe if you're working- to all who served-
Thank you for that service.

 

[General Lee]

GenLee sellout- happy memorial day- ill get to you when I'm done with our 4th scotch- one for each passed family member who served-
Amazing you admit so freely your sellout ways- but now is not the time-

Have a good holiday tomorrow and fly safe if you're working- to all who served-
Thank you for that service.

Easy on the scotch Wave, you are already sounding drunk. I am not selling out, rather being practical with what our industry is doing today, and ensuring less total RJs, giving a hard ratio that favors mainline vs DCI, ensures growth thanks to your 717s being tied to any new 76 seaters, and finally tightening other scope that you are familiar with, INTL scope and AK scope.

If you want to talk about selling out, look at your policy about having a type rating to get hired off the street. 90% of your newhires off the street have to pay $8000 or more to qualify. That is selling out the entire industry, telling management that that ridiculous policy is OK. No, no it's not. Then you guys hosed the AirTran guys. Drink another scotch and then defend those two actions. Have a good Memorial Day.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[davessn763]

Nobody likes outsourcing. I wish Dalpa and the pilots would not have let this get out of hand from the beginning. Throw in a BK, and it got worse. Those are the facts. Now where are we today? We still have a lot of 50 seat RJs, and many are getting close to their cycle limit. Some though, have continued lease payments through 2024. Do you want to keep a lot of them if they lose money for Delta? What about at UAL/CAL? Do you want to keep planes that lose money in high oil? Maybe a 70 seater or even a 76 seater might be able to turn a profit on that Monroe to IAH route? Could a 717 or 737 make a profit on that route? Maybe not. I know you want mainline pilots to fly those planes. What are the costs for putting them on the mainline certificate? Would the FAs and mechanics be mainline? Those costs would be twice what Regionals are doing now. I want mainline to profit so they can afford to buy some new wide bodies to take on Emirates and Singapore Airlines. I want to make $280 an hour in the left seat of a 777 or 744.

This TA sets actual limits and ratios that will benefit mainline pilots and mainline economics. 717s will come in and be tied to 70 76 seaters coming in, while dumping and capping 50 seaters at 125, dumping 150 of them. Then throw in better sick leave, better work rules, better INTL scope and domestic codeshare scope,an early out program to try to get the top 300 pilots to early out, and a 19.5% raise in only 3 years, and I would say it might be an easy choice. Going back to recapture scope would be prohibitively expensive, and setting up our own 76 seat program would be twice the cost of current regional lift. Again, it's better to get a hard cap on RJ numbers, a ratio that favors mainline in domestic flying vs DCI, and improve other scope that could be even more dangerous to all of our careers.


Bye Bye---General Lee

76 seat RJ'S aren't going to fly IAH-MLU, they are going to fly IAH - SLC, EWR - ATL, DTW - DEN, 7+ times a day as opposed to 757's, MD-80's, 737's, 717's, A319's, DC-9's 5+ times a day.

RJ's have never been about cost, short haul, or long thin routes, they are about frequency into major hubs and markets.

The 50 seat RJ's are going to be around for a while, United has recently extended most of its outsourced flying with ASA/XJT.

We as legacy mainline pilots are at a tipping point, we can either vote to transform the legacies into small international/widebody companies that outsource domestically and joint venture globally, or we can vote to build strong fully integrated airlines that can compete domestically and globally while providing long, stable, and profitable pilot careers.

There are several sections of the Delta TA scope ratios and limits protections that allow the company an out for events they cannot control, e.g. oil prices. Those phrases wouldn't be in the TA if they weren't planned to be used. Please read those sections again if you missed it.

The ball is in the Delta Pilots court. United's TA won't happen until yours is resolved. AA's merger and TA won't happen until the precedence is set. Most importantly airplane orders, SNB's that's what E-190/CRJ-900's are, and jobs won't happen until the Delta pilots set the standard who will fly them regardless of how many seats they have in them.

 

[flyboyike]

This TA sets actual limits and ratios that will benefit mainline pilots and mainline economics.

Indeed. I might add benefits current mainline pilots. It does nothing to slow down the decline of the profession as a whole.

One might say it's not the Delta pilots' job to help the profession. Maybe said one is right.

 

[flyboyike]

We as legacy mainline pilots are at a tipping point, we can either vote to transform the legacies into small international/widebody companies that outsource domestically and joint venture globally, or we can vote to build strong fully integrated airlines that can compete domestically and globally while providing long, stable, and profitable pilot careers.

I fear that ship has sailed. The sad part is many mainline pilots don't even miss it.

 

[Flybywire44]

I like what you framed up. I think we can all agree that there is a looming pilot shortage. Having looked at retirements at USAir, American, and Delta, (couldn't find UAL numbers) with the order being the airline with the most retirements in the next 10 years, the retirements alone will absorb a majority of the available regional airline pool! Most regional pilots want to move to the Majors and this will happen, based on retirements alone. This does not even take into account any growth. Demand will outweigh supply!

Having said that, there will only be a limited number of pilots, who, for whatever reason, stay at the regionals. But because of the mass exodus of the regional pilots, and very small numbers of military pilots that take the available mainline jobs, the regionals will shrink because they will not be able to staff the regional jobs!

In summary, don't waste negotiating capital trying to "take it all in", which is impossible and want happen! The outsourcing issue will be eliminated or greatly mitigated by the staffing demands of retirement alone. In the next few years when retirements accelerate, there will be a tremendous shortage on the regional level causing outsourcing to evaporate.

To exacerbate the above issue, entry level requirements in this profession (training costs in the $100K range and the regulated time requirements) will stifle the ability to supply pilots to the pipeline.

So, relax and take a deep breath for those who want scope tightened, the solution will be the result of economics in the near future!

Don't waste negotiating capital on scope! Put that capital in your contract and pockets now!

Hi Speedtape,

I am very worried by your thoughts. Europe, Australia & Asia have established ab initio programs—and we will too. Yes, regional staffing will be brought to their eleventh hour of staffing shortfalls, but in the end the RAA and ATA will open their pockets and buy enough legislative support to keep our transportation system staffed on their terms.

Stop regional scope here guys! Bring the the 70 seats to mainline—match/reduce the pay on these aircraft by 10-15% of current regional rates to give mainline an incentive. Stop DBA; help Delta, AMR & UAL take control of their own products. Take a hint, Airlines are consolidating—don't let your ego's, wallets and big jets blind you.

If you don't stop it now than eventually every legacy will be just one big DBA brand and all of us will be whip sawed!

Final thoughts—your Delta's TA is a joke. DAL is subsidizing the pay increases with scope relaxation, productivity, profit sharing reduction and loss of green slip. Delta needs the 717's and are insulting their pilots intelligence by dangling such a dire carrot.

Think SCOPE this year.

 

[Speedtape]

This TA will pass with an 80% vote "for." Never rule out the FYIGM axiom!

 

[waveflyer]

This TA will pass with an 80% vote "for." Never rule out the FYIGM axiom!

I will always hope-

But then again- we know what DALPA has been, don't we?

The most effective argument I am making to this crowd is how when you go full circle, outsourcing ever larger jets places great downward pressure on your own wages as regional pilots will be more than willing to work anywhere that is a step up for them and where they might have more control over their destiny.

 

[General Lee]

Something that was brought up in a letter from one of our CAPT reps to explain his yes vote. He stated the NMB hinted that the process could take awhile if we went that route. In person,(talking to several people here in ATL), he stated that the new person incharge of the NMB (national mediation board), who is also an Obama appointment, stated to our MEC as a whole about a year ago that in any future negotiations using the NMB there will be Pattern Bargaining only, no retro pay will be given, and we could ONLY use pattern bargaining from our peers, which were UAL, AA, and US. She also stated it would take close to 29 months on average, or 2 1/2 years, and we had better not be asking for a huge raise like AA did, when she put the APA in the "corner" for a year (they asked for a 50% raise right off the bat). Could that be a scare tactic to try to take this TA? I don't know. It looks like this person, who one would think would be pro-labor while working for Obama, may not be. You make the call, but if you are wrong, you are wrong for a couple years at best, and then we'd be looking for a 40% raise, which she said wouldn't happen. It's a gamble at best, with a warning at the same time it seems.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Speedtape]

Something that was brought up in a letter from one of our CAPT reps to explain his yes vote. He stated the NMB hinted that the process could take awhile if we went that route. In person,(talking to several people here in ATL), he stated that the new person incharge of the NMB (national mediation board), who is also an Obama appointment, stated to our MEC as a whole about a year ago that in any future negotiations using the NMB there will be Pattern Bargaining only, no retro pay will be given, and we could ONLY use pattern bargaining from our peers, which were UAL, AA, and US. She also stated it would take close to 29 months on average, or 2 1/2 years, and we had better not be asking for a huge raise like AA did, when she put the APA in the "corner" for a year (they asked for a 50% raise right off the bat). Could that be a scare tactic to try to take this TA? I don't know. It looks like this person, who one would think would be pro-labor while working for Obama, may not be. You make the call, but if you are wrong, you are wrong for a couple years at best, and then we'd be looking for a 40% raise, which she said wouldn't happen. It's a gamble at best, with a warning at the same time it seems.



Bye Bye---General Lee

General Lee, you bring up some great points. Future bargaining will follow something akin to Baseball Arbitration when there is dispute among parties. You get what everybody else gets, and only if your Company can afford it, as the NMB takes into consideration the welfare of the Company, Creditors, and every other employee group whose future employment can be jeopardized by irrational gains by one group. Leap froging in pattern bargaining will be almost eliminated.

However, the concept of pattern bargaining will survive, just not in the way we have come to know. KEEP in MIND, Pattern Bargaining can work for Companies also. For example, assume both parties negotiate in good faith but still have a few major oustanding issues in the end where compromise cannot be reached. These disputes will be submitted through the Medation Process, and possibly Arbitration, before a Release.

For further example, consider the issue of Scope as the outstanding issue. The Mediator will look at what the standard is in your industry. The Company will argue that they cannot compete/survive with an inequitable position as compared to their competitors. The Mediator will use all resources to guide (force) the party whose position is not in line with the industry standard to accept something close to if not alligned to the industry standard. If then a compromise cannot be reached, the Mediator can park you until a compromise can be struck. You might never get the issue advanced out of Mediation. Even so, if both parties were to submit to the Arbitration process, you will most likely end up with a binding decision that alligns you with the industry. The main point is, the Negotiation process is taking on new direction. The potential of a legal job action will continue to be mitigated and weakened.

The industry standard will be shaped by what happens in the American bankruptcy and for now, that does not look good. It will dictate what happens with UAL and possibly what happens with this TA if it were to fail.

There is a T/A on the table that is very favorable in terms of pay and benefits. It has some improvements in scope. With the possibility that Amercian's fate can have devastating effects on this industry, there is one question to be posed:

Should this T/A fail, do you really want to give the Company another bite at the apple with the looming American bankruptcy an it's effect on the industry?

You have more to lose than to gain. Take the deal on the table and run! It will be major improvements in pay for all pilots. It want get any better in this environment! The Company is willing to go this far because they want to be in a position to capitalize on any future opportunities, and they need the pilots pulling on the same end of the rope with labor cost establised for the next 3 years.

 

[waveflyer]

Why would anybody vote one way or another based on "hints" and rumors of what the NMB may or may not do??

Again, pilots have PM'd me to back off DALPA- and I do not care- I know it's not the whole group- but it looks like it'll be ENOUGH. ...

....AGAIN

TO SCREW THE WHOLE INDUSTRY.

OF ALL THE PU$$Y ARGUMENTS I'VE SEEN- this one ^^^^ by GeneralLee is the biggest.

If you guys fall for that crap it's no wonder you've led the charge in outsourcing. Seriously, if you don't know DALPA used to be the pride of all pilot unions globally- where the hell did this group's vaginas go?

If you vote yes, it is your vote, but be rational and accountable for it. Don't fool yourself that it's just about you- you are the largest unified voice airline pilots have in the world- what you do MATTERS- each and every one of you are accountable for the vote you cast as a group.

"my brother's cousin's sister in law had lunch with a clerk in an office that shares the same lunch table as the clerk for Mr Hoglander and he said 'we better vote yes, or we'll be in big trouble(!)'"

Good lord GL- there are plenty of reasons to vote one way or another- that's just weak.

http://www.nmb.gov/directory/orgchart_03-12-12.pdf

Something that was brought up in a letter from one of our CAPT reps to explain his yes vote. He stated the NMB hinted that the process could take awhile if we went that route. In person,(talking to several people here in ATL), he stated that the new person incharge of the NMB (national mediation board), who is also an Obama appointment, stated to our MEC as a whole about a year ago that in any future negotiations using the NMB there will be Pattern Bargaining only, no retro pay will be given, and we could ONLY use pattern bargaining from our peers, which were UAL, AA, and US. She also stated it would take close to 29 months on average, or 2 1/2 years, and we had better not be asking for a huge raise like AA did, when she put the APA in the "corner" for a year (they asked for a 50% raise right off the bat). Could that be a scare tactic to try to take this TA? I don't know. It looks like this person, who one would think would be pro-labor while working for Obama, may not be. You make the call, but if you are wrong, you are wrong for a couple years at best, and then we'd be looking for a 40% raise, which she said wouldn't happen. It's a gamble at best, with a warning at the same time it seems.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[KarmaPolice]

This is ridiculous. Rumors of NMB harshness to vote in this TA??? FEAR FEAR FEAR. WHAT IF?? LOOK OVER THERE!!!

Staying under our old current contract is BETTER (LONG TERM) than voting this TA in considering scope. NONE of you yes voters can deny that if we sit on our hands, someday the 50s will all be gone, and there will be fewer 76 and 70 seaters than this TA will allow.

When you factor inflation, it is not much of a raise we are giving them anyway. We are also currently making more than UAL, USAIR, Alaska, Jetblue, VA, and American. WE ARE IN A PERFECT place to draw the line in the sand on scope, and wait for management to come up with plan b on how to get rid of the 50 seaters.

The NMB isn't going to screw us worse than this TA does, and using rumors of "what if" is using pure emotion. Let's focus on what we have RIGHT NOW and what we ultimately want.